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5262. Settlers, Refugees, and Immigrants: Alternative Futures for Post-Settlement Cyprus
- Author:
- Neophystos G. Loizides and Marcos A. Antoniades
- Publication Date:
- 03-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- The central theme of this article is the introduction of scenario planning in the negotiation of the settler, refugee, and immigration issues in Cyprus and other divided societies. While advocating support for the United Nations Plan for the Comprehensive Settlement of the Cyprus Question (the .Annan Plan.), the article proposes alternative ways of linking its immigrant, Turkish settler and Greek Cypriot (GC) refugee quotas. The Turkish Cypriot (TC) community is provided with a choice between a community-homogeneous future with fewer settlers and refugees, and a multicultural one with more of each. Subsequently, an explicit link is made between the numbers of the Greek Cypriot refugees and those of the Turkish settlers, immigrants, and TC émigrés. This paper argues that a TC constituent state which accommodates more of the latter should also be in a position to welcome more GCs under a low percentage of the TC population: a potentially win-win situation. Finally, we address the scenario in which TCs opt for a multicultural future but GC refugees do not actually resettle, with a safeguard provision that compensates the GC side in another issue such as security, government, or even territory. By compensating possible losses in one area with favorable readjustments in another, these safeguards eliminate worst case scenarios for both sides, preserve the initial balance of the negotiated settlement, and maximize the negotiability and credibility of the Annan Plan. At the same time, the settler, refugee, and immigration issues are linked in new and innovative ways to emphasize a better human rights environment for all.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Human Rights, and Migration
- Political Geography:
- Europe
5263. Well Being and Unemployment in Russian in the 1990's: Can Society's Suffering Be Individuals' Solace?
- Author:
- Andrew; Gaddy Eggers
- Publication Date:
- 04-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- This paper studies the effect of regional unemployment rates on subjective well-being in post-Soviet Russia. Research conducted in Europe and the United States has documented that higher unemployment rates lead to lower reported life-satisfaction. By contrast, our Russian study finds a small but significant effect in the other direction. We estimate that du ring the period of our study (1995-2001), each percentage point increase in the local unemployment rate was correlated with the average well-being of people in the region increasing by an amount equivalent to moving 2% of the population up one level in life satisfaction measured on a five-point scale. Our intuition is that the so-called comparison effect drives this result: when individuals observe their peers suffering in a troubled economy, they lower their standards of what is good enough. All else equal, they thus perceive themselves to be better off in worse times. In highlighting the dependence of subjective well-being scores on expectations and reference groups, we sound a note of caution against using happiness data from economies in crisis to draw macroeconomic policy conclusions.
- Topic:
- Economics and Human Welfare
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, Europe, Asia, and Soviet Union
5264. Europe's Uncertain Pursuit of Middle East Reform
- Author:
- Richard Youngs
- Publication Date:
- 06-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- DELIBERATION OF DEMOCRACY PROMOTION IN THE MIDDLE EAST intensified after the attacks of 9/11, and has been further energized by the transatlantic debates that were progeny of the Iraqi conflict. More intense debate over support for political change in the Middle East has forced the United States and Europe into a closer exploration of each other's actual and intended approaches to democracy promotion in the region. Debates have centered, in particular, on preparations for June's Group of Eight (G8) and EU–U.S. summits and the United States' proposed Greater Middle East Initiative. While many in the U.S. bemoan European irresolution, others acknowledge the need for American policy to understand and harness the EU's more pervasive presence in much of the Middle East. While Europeans express dismay at the Bush administration's heavy-handed instrumentalism, they have also been forced to engage with new U.S. initiatives that appear to heed the EU's own pleas for a focus on the root causes of instability. With the U.S. and EU eyeing each other over the parapets of their Iraqi-inspired wrangles, it is an opportune moment to delineate and critically assess how Europeans have developed their democracy promotion policies in the Middle East.
- Topic:
- Democratization and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, America, Europe, and Middle East
5265. Greater Middle East Initiative Off to a False Start
- Author:
- Marina Ottaway and Thomas Carothers
- Publication Date:
- 03-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- The Bush administration is preparing to launch a “Greater Middle East Initiative” at the G-8 summit meeting in June. The plan is to bring the United States, Europe, and the Middle East together around a set of commitments to help transform the region politically and economically. The time is indeed opportune for engagement on regional reform, but as planned, the initiative fails to establish a basis for genuine partnership and does little to address the real challenges of Arab democratization. The administration should rethink its approach and start a new process of genuine consultations to come to an agreement on how all three sides can work cooperatively to address the regional problems that threaten the security of Arab societies and the West.
- Topic:
- Democratization and Peace Studies
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, Middle East, and Arabia
5266. E.U.—RUSSIA RELATIONS: Interests and Value—A European Perspective
- Author:
- Rolf Schuette
- Publication Date:
- 12-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Russia easily comes first in the time and energy that the E.U. has devoted to developing relations with outside partners, both in the economic field and regarding the political dialogue within the context of the E.U.'s Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP) and European Security and Defense Policy (ESDP). Russia has been the subject of many fundamental policy documents, policy implementation instruments, and internal discussions during the past decade. The density and frequency of the bilateral dialogue between Russia and the E.U. are unique.
- Topic:
- Democratization and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Asia
5267. The Political-Economic Conundrum: The Affinity of Economic and Political Reform in the Middle East and North Africa
- Author:
- Eva Bellin
- Publication Date:
- 11-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- FOR NEARLY TWO DECADES THE MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA (MENA) has languished in economic stagnation and lassitude. At a time when the logic of market-driven reform and exportoriented growth has become nearly canonical worldwide, the MENA region has proven steadfastly unenthusiastic about reform, shutting itself out of the benefits of economic globalization and falling behind most other regions in economic development. At the same time, the MENA region has distinguished itself by spurning another worldwide trend: democratization. As democracy has spread in Latin America, Central and Eastern Europe, Asia, and sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East has remained largely authoritarian, experiencing at most only mild liberalizing political reforms. This dual resistance to world trends is intriguing and resurrects the question of the relationship between political and economic reform. Is this dual resistance to reform coincidental? And what does this resistance say about whether and how Western policy makers and aid practitioners should try to link or sequence their efforts to promote political and economic reform in the region?
- Topic:
- Globalization and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Middle East, Asia, Latin America, and North Africa
5268. WMD in Iraq: Evidence and Implications
- Author:
- George Perkovich, Joseph Cirincione, Jessica T. Mathews, and Alexis Orton
- Publication Date:
- 01-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- If history is any guide, the war and subsequent occupation and reconstruction of Iraq will shape U.S. relations with the Arab world—and perhaps with the whole Muslim world—for decades, just as prior military occupations altered U.S. relations with Latin America, the Caribbean, Europe, and Asia. What happens in Iraq is also likely to profoundly affect whether and with what degree of effort and success states choose to work together to constrain the spread of weapons of mass destruction (WMD). The war and its aftermath will affect U.S. foreign relations, influence U.S. policies regarding future armed interventions, and alter the international struggle against terrorism. It is a massive understatement, then, to say that a great deal is at stake, on the ground in Iraq, around the world, and in the lessons for the future that will be drawn here at home.
- Topic:
- Security, Terrorism, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Europe, Middle East, Asia, Arabia, Latin America, and Caribbean
5269. European Union Defense Policy: An American Perspective
- Author:
- Leslie S. Lebl
- Publication Date:
- 06-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- For almost 50 years, proposals by the European Union to develop a common foreign and security policy for all member states failed. Since the late 1990s, however, the situation has changed. Despite, or perhaps because of, member states' disagreements over Iraq, the EU probably will continue to develop common foreign and security policies, and the European Commission may begin to play a role in developing new European military capabilities.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, America, Europe, and Middle East
5270. Between Europe and a Hard Place: French Financial Diplomacy from 1995 to 2002
- Author:
- Daphne Josselin
- Publication Date:
- 03-2004
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- French Politics, Culture Society
- Institution:
- Conference Group on French Politics Society
- Abstract:
- In the mid-1990s, a series of financial crises placed international financial stability and North-South dialogue once again very firmly on the agenda of economic diplomacy. These had long been pet topics for the French: back in the 1960s, President Charles de Gaulle had famously clamoured for the establishment of a new monetary order; the summitry set up, on French initiative, in 1975, had been largely focused on exchange rate stability and North-South relations; in the 1980s, President Mitterrand had made repeated appeals for a "new Bretton Woods." One could therefore expect the French to contribute actively to debates on how best to reform the international financial architecture.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- Europe and France