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5012. Forgotten Intervention? What the United States Needs to Do in the Western Balkans
- Author:
- William L. Nash and Amelia Branczik
- Publication Date:
- 06-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- In 2002, the Center for Preventive Action published Balkans 2010, a Task Force report that laid out a vision for a stable, peaceful western Balkans (comprising Croatia, Serbia and Montenegro, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Macedonia, and Albania) and identified the requisite objectives and milestones to achieve that vision. Many of the report's recommendations remain valid today, particularly the need to strengthen democracy and the rule of law, dismantle politico-criminal syndicates, and promote economic reform and development.
- Topic:
- International Relations
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, Bosnia, Herzegovina, Eastern Europe, Serbia, Balkans, Macedonia, and Albania
5013. A Citizens Compact: Reaching out to the Citizens of Europe
- Author:
- Sebastian Kurpas, Marco Incerti, Justus Schönlau, Daniel Keohane, Julia De Clerck-Sachsse, Gaëtane Ricard-Nihoul, José I. Torreblanca, Martin Koopmann, Fredrik Langdal, Ben Crum, Anna de Klauman, Anne Mette Vestergaard, and David Kràl
- Publication Date:
- 09-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies
- Abstract:
- How can the deadlock after the 'no' to the European Constitutional Treaty in France and the Netherlands be overcome? What should be the aim of the 'period of reflection' that has been agreed by the European Council?
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Government, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Netherlands
5014. Modelling the Effects of Trade Policy Scenarios on Multifunctionality in Greek Agriculture: A Social Accounting Matrix Approach
- Author:
- Dimitris Psaltopoulos and Eudokia Balamou
- Publication Date:
- 09-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies
- Abstract:
- This paper presents a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) model for conducting an assessment on the potential impacts of trade agreements on several multifunctionality indicators in Greek agriculture. More specifically, two SAM models were constructed, one for Greece and one for local economy of Archanes (Crete), an agriculturally dependent NUTS IV area, which has demonstrated a noticeable record in terms of the implementation of Pillar 2 policies. Along these lines, five alternative scenarios were specified with regards to anticipated EU policy reactions under different future outcomes of the Doha round negotiations. In broad terms these scenarios range from a status quo (2003 CAP reform) hypothesis to full decoupling, taking also into account the possibility of further reductions in domestic (EU) support as well as developments on Pillar 2 funding. Results suggest that under the scenarios examined, the effects of policy reform upon multifunctionality indicators are rather mixed and surely not extremely worrying. Effects of the status quo scenarios seem to be optimistic in terms of projected economy-wide output and employment at both national and regional level. On the other hand, Scenario 1(bis) generates negative results in terms of farm output and employment (for Archanes), land-use abandonment projections are marginal at the national and rather moderate at the regional level, while environmental repercussions are negative at the national level. The regional analysis has also shown that the impacts of Scenarios 2, 2b and 3 are rather worrying in terms of all categories of projections, with the exception of “Total Output”. Taking account of the specification of Scenario 3, this finding generates rather justified reservations on the “ability” of Pillar 2 policies to ameliorate for economic activity contraction caused by a decrease in Pillar 1 support in Archanes economy.
- Topic:
- Agriculture, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Europe
5015. Evaluating the Impact of Alternative Policy Scenarios on Multifunctionality: A Case Study of Finland
- Author:
- Heikki Lehtonen, Jussi Lankoski, and Jyrki Niemi
- Publication Date:
- 07-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies
- Abstract:
- This paper provides first results of the sector-model approach to analysing the effects of alternative policy scenarios on the multifunctional role of Finnish agriculture. In terms of environmental non-commodity outputs, this study focuses on nutrient runoffs, landscape diversity and biodiversity. As regards other non-commodity outputs, the paper considers rural socio-economic viability. The results suggest that, on the whole, reform of the common agricultural policy is not likely to result in any drastic decline of agricultural production in Finland. The amount of green fallow will increase considerably when agricultural support payments are decoupled from production, and as a result the remaining cultivated agricultural land will become biologically richer. The agricultural labour force is likely to decrease substantially irrespective of agricultural policy. The study concludes that the credibility of the production economics and biological relationships of the economic model determine the validity of the results of the many indicators examined. Further, the economic logic of microeconomic simulation models provides a consistent assessment of the many aspects of multifunctionality.
- Topic:
- Agriculture, Economics, and Environment
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Finland
5016. Hub-and-Spoke or Else? Free Trade Agreements in the Enlarged EU - A Gravity Model Estimate
- Author:
- Luca De Benedictis, Roberta De Santis, and Claudio Vicarelli
- Publication Date:
- 06-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies
- Abstract:
- The aim of this paper is to estimate the effect of the EU's eastern enlargement on the trade patterns of the Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs)1 that joined the EU in May 2004. In particular, the paper investigates whether and how the EU free trade agreements (FTAs) with the CEECs affected centre-peripheral and intra-peripheral trade flows. It also evaluates whether the prospect of joining the EU had the added positive effects on the export flows of the CEECs that had been anticipated.
- Topic:
- Development and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Eastern Europe
5017. Iran: The Moment of Truth
- Author:
- Patrick Clawson, François Heisbourg, and Vladimir Sazhin
- Publication Date:
- 06-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies
- Abstract:
- The definition of European policy objectives and strategies vis-à-vis Iran's nuclear ambitions must take into account the specificities of the case, setting, as it were, its problématique. First, we have the unusual situation of a basically three-way game: the EU (and notably the EU-3, comprising the UK, France and Germany), Iran and the 'significant other', the United States, which is outside of the negotiation but a key player. Any student in strategy knows that a triangle is the most unstable and tricky combination to deal with, and the presence of yet another set of outsiders (notably Russia and China) adds another element of complexity.
- Topic:
- Development and Peace Studies
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, United Kingdom, Europe, Iran, Middle East, France, and Germany
5018. Economic Effects of Free Trade between the EU and Russia
- Author:
- Pekka Sulamaa and Mika Widgrén
- Publication Date:
- 05-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies
- Abstract:
- This study simulates the economic effects of eastern enlargement of the EU and an EU-Russian free trade area. The main emphasis of the paper is on the effect this would have on the Russian economy. The simulations were carried out with a GTAP computable general equilibrium model, using the most recent GTAP database 6.0 beta, which takes the former Europe agreements between the EU-15 and the eight new Central and Eastern European member states into account. The results confirm the earlier findings that a free trade agreement with the EU is beneficial for Russia in terms of total output but not necessarily in terms of economic welfare when measured by equivalent variation. The main reason behind this is the deterioration that would occur in Russia's terms of trade. Improved productivity in Russia would, however, make the free trade agreement with the EU advantageous.
- Topic:
- Economics and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Asia
5019. Update on the Ratification Debates: What Prospects for the European Constitutional Treaty? Results of and EPIN Survey of National Experts
- Author:
- Sebastian Kurpas, Marco Incerti, Justus Schönlau, and Julia De Clerck-Sachsse
- Publication Date:
- 05-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies
- Abstract:
- The ratification process of the Constitutional Treaty has taken some unexpected turns, since the publication of our initial report. The situation has changed especially dramatically in France: within only 10 days the 'yes' camp slid from a previously stable figure of around 60% to below 50%. Our report had concluded that “if the reasons for a particular European compromise are not made transparent to the citizens, issues can be used in a divisive way at the national level”. It therefore called for a stronger European dimension in the national debates and expressed the hope that politicians and the media would play their role in stressing the common European significance of the European Constitution.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Government, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Europe and France
5020. Is the European Economy a Patient and the Union its Doctor? On Jobs and Growth in Europe
- Author:
- Sjef Ederveen, Albert van der Hoorst, and Paul Tang
- Publication Date:
- 04-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies
- Abstract:
- A stronger focus on jobs and growth is part of an effort to renew the Lisbon strategy. Yet the view that economic expansion contributes to maintaining Lisbon's other goals of social cohesion as well as the environment is somewhat optimistic. First, there are structural trade-offs among the central elements of the Lisbon strategy. Escaping these trade-offs temporarily is sometimes possible but requires policy changes. Second, higher productivity (growth) may not provide more structural room for governments to manoeuvre. It leads to higher tax receipts but also to higher public expenditures since public sector wages and social security benefits are linked to productivity. In contrast, more employment (jobs) is associated with a smaller public sector. But to engineer the increase in employment, changes in welfare state arrangements are needed. In other words, focussing solely on the sick child will probably harm the other children.
- Topic:
- Security, Development, Economics, and Human Welfare
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Lisbon