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4661. Central Asia and the Caucasus: A Vulnerable Crescent

Author:
Anna Matveeva and Thomas de Waal
Publication Date:
02-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Peace Institute
Abstract:
The Caucasus and Central Asia – eight countries of the former Soviet Union stretching to the south of Russia and to the west of China – form a chain of weak states, vulnerable to conflict, extremism, and spillover from potential instability in the Middle East, Iran and Afghanistan. Once on the path of the Silk Road, these countries are still transit routes in the world economy rather than major economic players. The overarching problem for the Caucasus countries situated on the eastern fringe of Europe – Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia, as well as the Russian North Caucasus – is unresolved conflicts that hamper development and poison politics. The Caucasus has become a field for latter-day Great Power battles of influence, in which competing policy agendas, sometimes even from within the same state, make for a fragmented international response that hampers regional integration and development. The autocratic states of Central Asia by contrast risk isolating themselves from the wider world, becoming a source of danger because of their deliberate remoteness. Here the globalized threats of drug trafficking and militant Islam are the biggest potential source of instability. Multilateral organizations such as the UN are still struggling to articulate a coherent response to the two regions as a whole, tending to make more narrow interventions that have limited impact.
Topic:
Security and Development
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Russia, China, Europe, Iran, Central Asia, Asia, Soviet Union, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia

4662. Europe: Crises of Identity

Author:
Shada Islam
Publication Date:
02-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Peace Institute
Abstract:
The European Union's emergence as a leading global political and economic actor is an important, exciting and inspiring development in modern history. The signature in 1957 of the EU's founding Treaty of Rome, creating the European Atomic Energy Community (EURATOM) and the European Economic Community (EEC) has been followed rapidly by a spate of initiatives designed to draw EU members into an ever closer economic and political union.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, and Nationalism
Political Geography:
Europe and Rome

4663. Current Status of Debate in European States on the Constitutional Treaty

Author:
Adam Szymański, Leszek Jesień, Łukasz Adamski, Mateusz Gniazdowski, Emil Pietras, Rafał Tarnogórski, and Beata Wojna
Publication Date:
04-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
This elaborate paper provokes a series of questions. Where are EU member states heading in their effort to reform the Community's institutions? Are there leaders of the pack among them, are there stragglers? Are the present considerations on the constitutional treaty linked to a vision of sorts? These are vital questions, to be answered probably during the forthcoming months and years, when watching the politicians' efforts to have their share in this realm of European integration.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Europe

4664. Elaboration, study and dissemination of international law. Documents of the International Law Commission and the UN Commission on International Trade Law

Publication Date:
09-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The strengthening of international law, as a comprehensive system regulating the most important spheres of international relations, takes place through its codification, progressive development and dissemination of knowledge about the law.
Topic:
International Law and Law
Political Geography:
Europe

4665. The Status of the Debate on Institutional Reform in EU Member States (update - July 2007)

Publication Date:
10-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
This review of the positions of European Union Member States on the institutional reform supplements the report published by the Polish Institute of International Affairs in May 2007, prior to the meeting of the European Council that was to decide on the fate of the Constitutional Treaty (Treaty Establishing a Constitution for Europe, TCE) and, in broader terms, on the institutional reform. This paper discusses the developments until the June meeting of the European Council although, in some interesting cases (e.g. the Czech Republic), the paper also tackles the issues that emerged following the end of the Councils session.
Topic:
Reform
Political Geography:
Europe

4666. Countering Bio-threats: EU Instruments for Managing Biological Materials, Technology and Knowledge

Author:
Frida Kuhlau
Publication Date:
08-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
The urgency of fighting terrorism has been heightened by the 11 September 2001 attacks on the United States and subsequent attacks around the world. The use of anthrax to attack targets in the USA in September–November 2001, reinforced the need to include various potential biological threats—such as the deliberate use of disease as a weapon—on the anti-terrorism agenda. This paper identifies the instruments available to the European Community and examines how they are employed as part of the wider effort to reduce the potential threat posed by biological agents. However, it is important to recognize that these instruments and their use are only one aspect of European Union (EU) activity towards that end and that Community actions are set within the wider EU context.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation and International Cooperation
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

4667. Foreign Military Bases in Eurasia

Author:
Zdzislaw Lachowski
Publication Date:
06-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
On 16 August 2004 the President of the United States, George W. Bush, announced that some 60 000–70 000 US troops stationed in Asia and Europe would be returned to the USA over the coming decade. This realignment of forces signals a major change in US global and regional policies that will affect the structure of US and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) base deployment (referred to as 'basing' or 'forward basing' by the military) throughout the world. In the 1990s Russia had begun pulling out of its cold war spheres of influence, but it either halted or began to reverse its base withdrawal process at almost the same time as Bush's plan was made known.
Topic:
Security and Defense Policy
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Europe, Eurasia, and Asia

4668. Economic Survey of Hungary, 2007

Publication Date:
05-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Abstract:
Budget consolidation is dominating the political agenda. The Hungarian government has embarked on an ambitious four-year consolidation programme following another election-year peak in the deficit in 2006 at 9.2% of GDP. The immediate revenue increases and spending cuts are temporarily damping growth. However, if all goes according to plan, the programme will bring dividends to the economy in the longer term. This payoff is crucially dependent on: Discipline in budgetary processes. Work needs to continue on strengthening budgetary mechanisms. A system of binding medium-term spending limits should be considered. Budgetary reform also needs to extend to the sub-national governments. Success in maintaining spending freezes. The re-scheduling that brought forward part of the 13th month payment to public-sector workers this year does not affect achievement of the 2007 fiscal target in accrual terms. Nevertheless, looking forward, strong resistance to spending pressures arising from revenue windfalls is of key importance. Implementation of the structural reform programme. The healthcare reforms that are expected to deliver a large share of fiscal savings are reasonably well advanced and a welcome cut in gas-price subsidies is already reducing government spending. The reforms in education are positive but the changes to the tuition–fee system in particular should go further. It is more uncertain, however, whether all the planned cuts in government administration will be realised. Successful reform of public spending requires the participation of the counties and municipal governments. There are potential savings in administrative overheads here too and sub-national governments are responsible for providing many government services. In-depth review of these issues in this Survey reveals a need to: Capture economies of scale. Political constraints preclude widespread mergers among the large number of small municipalities. However, the joint provision of services is widespread and should be encouraged further. Efforts to rationalise through replacement of county-level governments with regional assemblies should continue. Reform financing systems. The financing of sub-national government needs simplification and greater transparency and oversight in accounts. Also, the benchmarking of services via output and performance indicators needs to become more widespread. Reform of local taxation should include widening of property tax and removal of the local business tax. Hungary's low employment rate remains a key structural handicap to economic performance. There has been welcome reform of unemployment benefits and early-retirement pensions. Planned reforms to disability pensions look promising and a concrete proposal for old-age pension reform is in the pipeline. This Survey looks in depth at the issue of prolonged parental leave and other aspects of family policy: Current efforts to boost childcare services are welcome. Future reform needs to consider further strengthening of central-government provision requirements on municipalities regarding these services, matched by appropriate funding. A system of childcare vouchers for parents would be one way of increasing efficiency in the provision of services. Reform to the very long parental leaves should be considered, along with changes to the attendant system of additional cash benefits. Savings could be used to help fund increased childcare services.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:
Europe

4669. Economic Survey of Greece, 2007

Publication Date:
05-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Abstract:
Growth performance over the last decade has been among the best in the OECD, though a precise calibration is not yet possible following the recent revisions to GDP data. High growth has been driven by a range of factors, some of which are transitory. It is particularly encouraging that growth has been sustained over the last two years, despite substantial fiscal consolidation, mainly being driven by investment and exports. However, significant further reforms are needed to ensure that good performance is sustained in the years to come. It is imperative to use this period of strong performance to tackle remaining weaknesses in product and labour markets and move fiscal policy further towards a sustainable position by vigorous continued consolidation and pension reform. The key challenge, in terms of political economy, is to manage the required reforms in a context where society may be unduly complacent because the “good times” appear to be continuing.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Europe and Greece

4670. Economic Survey of Italy, 2007

Publication Date:
06-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Abstract:
A welcome economic recovery is under way in Italy. In part, this reflects the cyclical upswing in the rest of Europe, but there are also early signs of a more fundamental improvement, notably in terms of export and labour market performance. Even so, medium-term prospects remain challenging: Total factor productivity shows little signs of resurgence, high public indebtedness threatens fiscal sustainability and population ageing looms large. Without further reforms to restore economic dynamism, living standards will be dragged down relative to other countries. This Survey discusses policies undertaken by the government to address these challenges, notably to boost competition on product markets, achieve fiscal sustainability and make fiscal federalism work – all in support of growth and adjustment.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Europe and Italy