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451. Populist Neo-Nationalism: The Example of Austria

Author:
Maria Marczewska-Rytko
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:
This article aims to analyze the phenomenon of populist neo-nationalism in Austria and answer the following research questions: 1. How can populism and its type of populist neo-nationalism be characterized?; 2. What are the determinants of populist neonationalism in Austria? 3. What are the ways populist neo-nationalism has been utilized in Austria? The Chantal Mouffe thesis was verified, according to which the development of populism is a response to the shortcomings of liberal and deliberative democracies. The research process used a methodology typical of the social sciences, especially the political sciences. Since the 1980s, we have addressed the growing importance of radical right-wing populism in European politics. Some researchers refer to this phenomenon as new populism or populist neo-nationalism. The party’s growing importance since 1986 was related, among other things, to the principles of Euroscepticism it proclaimed and its demands to limit or even ban immigration. The FPÖ’s achieved the most tremendous success under the government of Jörg Haider. Its entry into the ruling coalition has confused international relations.
Topic:
Nationalism, Populism, and Neo-Nationalism
Political Geography:
Europe and Austria

452. EU-ASEAN Political Relations in the Light of Values and Norms of the International Liberal Order

Author:
Joanna Starzyk-Sulejewska
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:
Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:
The article aims to analyse the significance of liberal norms and values in the development of political relations between the EU and ASEAN, an issue which has been only selectively analysed in academic literature. At the same time, the topic of the article fits into a broader landscape of issues associated with the development of relations between international intergovernmental organisations in contemporary international relations, only partially studied in Polish and international literature to date. Considering the essential framework of classic constructivism, as well as significant contributions added by critical constructivism, the article formulates a research hypothesis whereby the European Union and ASEAN are organisations which, while recognising the importance of liberal values and norms, take a different approach to their promotion and protection. The European Union, which attempted to act towards ASEAN as an interpreter and diffuser of the aforementioned values and norms in the 1990s, adopted a pragmatic approach over time, in response to ASEAN’s stance and actions, limiting its role in this respect and taking regional conditions and dependencies into account. In order to verify this hypothesis, three research questions were formulated, namely: What is the place of liberal norms and values in the EU and ASEAN policy documents? Is the respect and protection of liberal norms and values an important element declared in mutual relations? How do both sides approach the implementation of liberal norms and values in practice in selected cases? This article is structured around these issues and discusses the significance of liberal norms and values in EU and ASEAN policy documents, the place and role of liberal norms and values in documents underpinning EUASEAN relations and in EU documents formulated towards ASEAN and the Southeast Asian region and also provides an analysis of EU and ASEAN policy towards Myanmar.
Topic:
International Relations, European Union, Liberalism, Norms, ASEAN, and International Order
Political Geography:
Europe and Asia-Pacific

453. The Future of NATO’s Nuclear Posture and Arms Control in Today’s More Dangerous World

Author:
Miles Pomper, David Santoro, and Nikolai Sokov
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Nonproliferation Policy Education Center
Abstract:
Since the late 1960s, NATO has sought to balance two objectives—maintaining a strong nuclear deterrent while supporting efforts to buttress strategic stability through arms control and advance nonproliferation and disarmament through the nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty process. The success of this strategy was most evident in the dual-track strategy of deployments and negotiations that led to the signing and implementation of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty in 1987. The end of the Cold War also led to substantial cuts in U.S. and Russian strategic systems. Since then, NATO Allies have regularly voiced their support for continuing to pursue these two objectives, including supporting the goal enunciated by U.S. President Barack Obama in 2009 “to seek the peace and security of a world without nuclear weapons.”1 In the last decade, however, Russia’s malign behavior has undermined NATO arms control efforts to the point that it appears traditional arms control will be effectively dead when the New START agreement—already suspended by Russia—expires in 2026. Russian’s invasion of Ukraine, its repeated nuclear saber-rattling in that conflict, and the deployment of non-strategic nuclear weapons to Belarus has also forced the alliance to look to ways to enhance its deterrence, including its nuclear deterrence. Meanwhile, the massive increase in China’s nuclear arsenal and its growing partnership with Russia, is generating additional pressure to increase U.S. nuclear forces as well as questions about the ability of the U.S. to provide extended deterrence simultaneously to Allies in Europe and Asia. Those doubts have been reinforced by political developments in the United States—and in the war in Ukraine—that have raised anxieties about a decoupling of European and U.S. deterrence and defense and led to fresh discussion of a potential “Eurodeterrent.” Meanwhile, developments in North Korea and Iran—and their increasingly close ties with Moscow—further threaten the viability of the already shaky nuclear and missile nonproliferation regimes and have eroded longstanding cooperation between Washington and Moscow to manage nuclear nonproliferation risks in third countries. In response to these developments, Allies and experts, such as the Congressional Strategic Posture Commission, have proposed various adaptations to the alliance’s nuclear posture, including to its nuclear sharing arrangements. This report examines these deterrence proposals, particularly considering how they support the alliance’s other longstanding objectives of arms control, disarmament, and nonproliferation. The paper begins with some background on US/NATO nuclear policy from the end of the Cold War to the further invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. It then delves into changes in Russian nuclear doctrine, Moscow’s nuclear behavior during the Ukraine War, and the Kremlin’s views on future arms control. The report next discusses China’s nuclear modernization and views on arms control and the reaction among NATO and Asian Allies and the international community to these changes. It then discusses potential future U.S. and NATO posture options, including those already being undertaken by NATO or proposed by the US. Congressional Strategic Posture Commission and the State Department’s International Security Advisory Board. It concludes with an analysis of the potential impact of various options on arms control, disarmament, and nonproliferation and offers some policy recommendations.
Topic:
NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Nonproliferation
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Europe, and United States of America

454. Nuclear China in the Twenty-First Century: Status and Implications for the World and Europe

Author:
David Santoro
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies
Abstract:
In August 2021, shortly after new evidence surfaced that China might be expanding its nuclear arsenal much more extensively and rapidly than previously assumed, Admiral Charles Richard, Commander of the U.S. Strategic Command, described Beijing’s military investments as a “strategic breakout.” He underscored that the “explosive growth and modernization of [China’s] nuclear and conventional forces can only be what I describe as breathtaking,” adding that “that word, breathtaking, may not be enough.” Since then, several senior officials in the United States, Europe, and elsewhere have echoed that message and the final report of the bipartisan Congressional Commission on the Strategic Posture of the United States published in October 2023 concluded that at its current pace, China “will reach rough quantitative parity with the United States in deployed nuclear warheads by the mid-2030s.” The result has been the emergence of work, including by this author, to understand this unprecedented development. This work is in its infancy, however, and more is needed to grasp the scale and scope of Chinese nuclear modernization (especially given that much of it is shrouded in secrecy) as well as its implications for strategic stability, deterrence, and arms control and risk reduction. Existing work has focused primarily on the implications for the United States and, to some extent, the United States and Russia. Yet it is also important to grapple with the implications for Europe, especially the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), and reflect on actions that Europeans, individually or with others, should take in response.
Topic:
NATO, Nuclear Weapons, Nonproliferation, and Modernization
Political Geography:
China, Europe, and Asia

455. Protection of Geographical Indications in Trade Agreements: Is it worth it?

Author:
Charlotte Emlinger and Karine Latouche
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII)
Abstract:
This paper estimates the impact of the inclusion of GIs in bilateral agreements on French exports of foodstuffs. We rely on a unique dataset of firms and products concerned by Geographical Indications (GIs) in the French agri-food industry (excluding wine) for 2012-2019, merged with firm-product-destination level data from French Customs and the French National Institute of Statistics. Controlling for market and firm characteristics, we compare the exports of GI firms with those of non-GI firms before and after the signing of the 13 agreements (25 destination countries) that include a list of GIs to be protected. We show that the protection of GIs in EU RTA helps French firms to reach new markets and to sell their products at higher price, but it depends on the level of protection provided by the agreement.
Topic:
Treaties and Agreements, Bilateral Relations, European Union, and Trade
Political Geography:
Europe

456. VIP Pass to Markets: When Customs Certification Helps Firms to Face NTMs

Author:
Charlotte Emlinger and Houssein Guimbard
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII)
Abstract:
This paper aims to assess how trade facilitation measures reduce the costs induced by non-tariff measures (NTMs). It focuses on the Authorized Economic Operator (AEO) certification, a firm-level trade facilitation measure defined by the World Customs Organization. This status allows firms to benefit from customs simplifications at the border, reduced physical and document-based controls, and priority treatment. We use an original and exhaustive dataset of French firms certified as AEO by the European Customs, merged with firm level trade from the French Customs. Our empirical strategy is to compare the export structure of firms before and after their certification to see whether the impact of NTMs on trade can be reduced by trade facilitation measures. Our results show that the AEO status enhances trade, but only when facing NTMs in the destination market. This confirms that some of the trade costs generated by NTMs are administrative in nature and can be reduced by pre-certifying firms. Our conclusion is informative about the kind of trade cost reductions that could be achieved by trade agreements that go beyond tariff reductions, without hindering the level of actual regulation.
Topic:
Markets, Economy, Tariffs, Trade, and Customs
Political Geography:
Europe and France

457. Does Trade Exposure Explain Antiglobalization Votes?

Author:
Antoine Bouët, Anthony Edo, and Charlotte Emlinger
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII)
Abstract:
We investigate the local effects of trade exposure and immigration on voting behavior in France from 1988 to 2022. We use the content of each candidate's manifesto to construct an anti-globalization voting index for each French presidential election. This index shows a significant increase in the anti-globalization positions of candidates, and a growing anti-globalization vote beyond the far right. We show that increasing local exposure to import competition and immigration increases anti-globalization votes, while increasing export exposure reduces them. We also find that imports have different effects depending on the products imported. While exposure to imports of final goods increases anti-globalization voting, exposure to imports of intermediate goods reduces it.
Topic:
Globalization, Political Economy, Immigration, Voting, and Trade
Political Geography:
Europe and France

458. The Collateral Channel within and between Countries

Author:
Jérôme Héricourt, Jean Imbs, and Lise Patureau
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII)
Abstract:
We examine the response of investment to real estate prices among French firms from 1994 to 2015. Using newly introduced methods and specifications, we find that investment sensitivity to real estate prices decreases with firm size: The smallest firms are at least three times more responsive to changes in collateral value compared to the largest firms. We impute these estimates onto other countries where available data lack firm-level detail. This approach allows us to assess the aggregate sensitivity of investment to real estate prices across different countries. Our results indicate significant variation in the sensitivity of aggregate investment to real estate shocks, driven by cross country differences in the size distribution of firms.
Topic:
Investment, Real Estate, Collateral Channel, and Firm Heterogeneity
Political Geography:
Europe and France

459. Media Coverage of Immigration and the Polarization of Attitudes

Author:
Sarah Schneider-Strawczynski and Jerome Valette
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII)
Abstract:
This paper investigates the effect of media coverage on immigration attitudes. It combines data on immigration coverage in French television with individual panel data from 2013 to 2017 that records respondents’ preferred television channel and attitudes toward immigration. The analysis focuses on within-individual variations over time, addressing ideological self-selection into channels. We find that increased coverage of immigration polarizes attitudes, with initially moderate individuals becoming more likely to report extremely positive and negative attitudes. This polarization is mainly driven by an increase in the salience of immigration, which reactivates preexisting prejudices, rather than persuasion effects from biased news consumption.
Topic:
Immigration, Media, Polarization, and Salience
Political Geography:
Europe and France

460. The 2024 Assessment of Violent Extremism in Albania

Author:
Institute for Democracy and Mediation (IDM)
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for Democracy and Mediation (IDM)
Abstract:
The 2024 national assessment of violent extremism drivers, forms and threats presents a crucial update in Albania’s fight against violent extremism, enriched by an in-depth exploration of perceptions of political extremism and other emerging threats. Building on this expanded scope, the report offers actionable insights and recommendations to enhance Albania’s preventing and countering violent extremism (P/CVE) measures. The assessment seeks to inform and complement the efforts of the Albanian government and P/CVE stakeholders, to enhance resilience against the broad spectrum of violent extremism and ensure a proactive and adaptable response to protect Albanian society and its democratic values. As Albania nears a decade of implementing P/CVE strategies, it is evident that considerable progress has been made in tackling religious extremism, yet the evolving nature of violent extremism presents continuous challenges. Delving into the main forms and drivers of violent extremism, this report has been structured into three main chapters which analyze citizens’ perceptions through the lens of the socio-economic, political and cultural drivers used in previous national assessments, as well as a series of new questions aimed at exploring emerging threats.
Topic:
Security, Religion, Violent Extremism, and Resilience
Political Geography:
Europe, Balkans, and Albania