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4491. Housing Market Risks in the United Kingdom

Author:
Robert F Martin
Publication Date:
11-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
House prices in the United Kingdom rose rapidly in recent years. The run-up, larger than any other in U.K. history, leveled off early last year. House prices are currently declining at rates faster than those seen in the early 1990’s downturn. The housing downturn, however, is far from complete. Using the price-rent ratio as a guide, house prices are likely to fall at least a further 30 percent before leveling off. Given the historic links between housing and real activity, the downturn is likely to be associated with very slow growth. Going forward, we recommend the price-rent ratio as the appropriate measure of housing valuation.
Topic:
Markets, Housing, and Rent
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

4492. Fiscal Policy in the European Monetary Union

Author:
Betty C. Daniel
Publication Date:
12-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
A country entering the EMU surrenders its monetary policy, and its debt becomes denominated in terms of a currency over which it has no direct control. A countryís promise to uphold the Öscal limits in the Maastricht Treaty and the Stability and Growth Pact is implicitly a promise not to allow its Öscal stance to deteriorate to a position in which it places pressure on the central bank to forgo its price level target to Önance Öscal deÖcits. Violation of these limits has raised questions about potential Öscal encroachment on the monetary authorityís freedom to determine the price level. We specify a simple model of Öscal policy in which the Öscal authority faces an upper bound on the size of its primary surplus. Policy is determined by a Öscal rule, speciÖed as an error correction model, in which the primary surplus responds to debt and a target variable. We show that for the monetary authority to have the freedom to control price, the primary surplus must respond strongly enough to lagged debt. Using panel techniques that allow for unit roots and for heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependence across countries, we estimate the coe¢ cients of the error correction model for the primary surplus in a panel of ten EMU countries over the period 1970-2006. The group mean estimate for the coe¢ cient on lagged debt is consistent with the hypothesis that the monetary authority can control the price level in the EMU, independent of Öscal ináuence.
Topic:
European Union, Fiscal Policy, and European Monetary Union
Political Geography:
Europe

4493. Russian-Algerian cooperation and the 'gas OPEC': What's in the pipeline?

Author:
Hakim Darbouche
Publication Date:
03-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
President Abdelaziz Bouteflika's statement to Spain's El País1 that the idea of a 'gas-OPEC' should not a priori be excluded, adds to a series of twists, among which was Vladimir Putin's confirmation on 1 February that the idea of a gas cartel was an 'interesting one' worth considering further. Hitherto, this gas saga featured Russia, Algeria, the EU, NATO and Iran. The story revolves around Russian-Algerian mingling on gas matters, spurring European and Transatlantic concerns over the prospects of a 'gas OPEC'. At a time of increasing European dependence on foreign energy supplies, these developments have been interpreted as being part of a wider effort, led by Russia, to use energy as a lever to undermine European diplomacy. These allegations have been dismissed by Algeria and Russia, whose leaders insist that their cooperation is intended to optimise their benefits and those of their customers alike. This paper examines the underpinnings of these developments by assessing the likelihood of their culmination in a gas cartel and offers an insight into the potential policy choices behind them.
Topic:
Economics and Energy Policy
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Eastern Europe, Asia, and Algeria

4494. European Neighbourhood Policy Two Years on: Time indeed for an 'ENP Plus'

Author:
Michael Emerson, Gergana Noutcheva, and Nicu Popescu
Publication Date:
03-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
Conceived in 2003 and 2004, the European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) has now had two years of operational experience. This initial experience has seen a sorting out of the partner states, with Action Plans drawn up for five Eastern and seven Southern partner states. We would distinguish among these 12 states between the 'willing' and the 'passive'; and among the other partner states without Action Plans between the 'reluctant' and the 'excluded'. These groupings should be the basis for stronger differentiation in the policy packages offered by the EU. In general the political context now calls for a strong reinforcement of the ENP, since the benign situation of 2004 has given way now to a more menacing one, given threats to European values bearing down on the EU from all sides. The EU institutions recognise these needs in principle, and last December the Commission advanced many valuable proposals. 'ENP plus' is a term being used by the current German Presidency, without this yet being defined in a public document in operational detail. In our view, 'ENP plus' could mean: Plus an advanced association model for the able and willing partner states, Plus a strengthening of regional-multilateral schemes, Plus an upgrading of the standard instruments being deployed, and Plus the offer of an 'ENP light' model for difficult states or non-recognised entities.
Topic:
Development and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Europe and Eastern Europe

4495. Inquiry into the EU-US Passenger Name Record Agreement

Author:
Elspeth Guild
Publication Date:
03-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
The collection, retention, manipulation, exchange and correction of personal data in Europe have once again become a matter of substantial interest. The last time the use of data constituted an important political issue in Europe, in the 1970s, the result (at the European level) was the Council of Europe's Convention for the Protection of Individuals with regard to Automatic Processing of Personal Data, which opened for signature in 1981. This Convention, to which all EU member states are party, still sets the standard for data use in Europe.
Topic:
International Relations and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

4496. Merging Security from the Two Level Game: Inserting the Treaty of Prüm into EU law?

Author:
Elspeth Guild
Publication Date:
03-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
On 27 May 2005, seven EU member states signed the Prüm Treaty to promote cross-border cooperation, aimed particularly at combating terrorism, cross-border crime and illegal migration. In response, we published a critical analysis of the measure, in which we expressed reservations on three grounds: The treaty format in a field of EU activity produces negative externalities for the EU's area of freedom, security and justice by circumventing the EU framework; Reverting to an intergovernmental arena excludes the European Parliament at a time when its role in democratic scrutiny of the area of freedom, security and justice is critical; The effect of the Prüm Treaty is to weaken the EU rather than to strengthen it, as it postpones an important debate among all the member states about cross-border cooperation in policing and creates the impression that a small group of member states seek to impose their view on the rest.
Topic:
Security, International Law, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Europe

4497. The European Union's Strategic Role in Central Asia

Author:
Neil J. Melvin
Publication Date:
03-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
For the first time since the collapse of communism, the EU is facing a strategic challenge in its external policies. The rise of Russia and China as international actors – with India close behind – and the growing confidence of some leading regional powers, such as Iran, are creating a serious threat to the EU's ambition to apply external policies that reflect European values. Against this background, the employment of the democracy – promotion agenda developed during the 1990s is unlikely to be effective and may even serve to weaken the position of the EU in key regions. This situation demands an urgent and far-reaching rethink of the approach the Union takes to external relations. If the EU is to remain a serious global actor, it will have to find ways to reconcile the imperative of engaging in difficult regions beyond the immediate European neighbourhood while also remaining true to the values of the Union.
Topic:
Security and Foreign Policy
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Europe, and Central Asia

4498. Making the EU Citizens' Agenda Work

Author:
Elspeth Guild
Publication Date:
02-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
On 5 January 2007, Elspeth Guild was invited by the European Commission Select Committee of the UK House of Lords to submit written evidence to assist that body in its scrutiny of the European Commission's annual legislative and work programme. This Policy Brief reproduces her submission in full.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, and Development
Political Geography:
Europe

4499. Decision-making in the Enlarged Council of Ministers: Evaluating the Facts

Author:
Julia De Clerck-Sachsse and Sara Hagemann
Publication Date:
01-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
In its Communication on Enlargement Strategy and Main Challenges 2006-2007, released 8 November 2006, the European Commission concluded: “Overall, the fifth enlargement has been a considerable success” and “(t)he EU's institutions have continued to function effectively” (p. 4). In his speaking points to the press, Enlargement Commissioner Olli Rehn (2006) stressed two important criteria for evaluating the integration process: With respect to institutional matters, the EU's decision-making processes must remain effective and accountable, for the sake of current member states as well as in view of further enlargement. With respect to policy-making, the EU needs to be in a position, as it enlarges, to continue developing and implementing common policies in all areas. Accordingly, assessment of the impact of enlargement on EU policies is planned to take place at all key stages of the enlargement process.
Topic:
Development and International Organization
Political Geography:
Europe

4500. Looking for the cure-all? Targets and the EU's New Energy Strategy

Author:
Christian Egenhofer
Publication Date:
01-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
On 10 January 2007, the European Commission outlined the European Union's 'energy and climate change vision' based on two principal documents: Communication on “An energy policy for Europe”, and Communication on future climate change policy for the period post-2012 when the Kyoto Protocol expires, entitled “Limiting global climate change to 2°C: The way ahead for 2020 and beyond”.
Topic:
Development, Energy Policy, and Environment
Political Geography:
Europe