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431. Eco-nomics: A green industrial policy for the next European Commission

Author:
Susi Dennison and Mats Engström
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
The new European Commission will seek to improve Europe’s capacity to manufacture green technologies. Member states agree on this headline aim, but they are divided on how to achieve it and the level of priority to give it. Some member states want to double down on building an effective green industrial policy, others place greater priority on keeping down the costs of green technology and so believe that they need to continue to import some green technologies from outside Europe, at least for now. The EU can ill afford this diversity of approaches. To benefit from economies of scale, it needs to act as a bloc. To move the union beyond national approaches, the European Commission should spearhead a common strategic understanding of the challenge it faces, put in place a credible financial package for research and development for the next green technology wave, and prioritise a limited number of areas for innovation over the next decade.
Topic:
Industrial Policy, European Union, Green Technology, European Commission, and Green Transition
Political Geography:
Europe

432. Value for money: Why and how Europeans should support the failing economies of Egypt and Tunisia

Author:
Anthony Dworkin, Camille Lons, and Tarek Megerisi
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
The economies of Egypt and Tunisia are characterised by weak private sectors, insiderism, and the dominance of key constituencies that maintain regime leaders in power. The severe weaknesses of these economies have provoked recurrent crises and cause hardship for their populations, which threatens social and political instability as well as greater migration towards Europe. The EU wants to ensure that the financial assistance it provides contributes to promoting fundamental reform. But Egyptian and Tunisian leaders have resisted policy change for political and ideological reasons, relying in part on support from Gulf countries. Europeans need to ground their economic assistance in a better understanding of political dynamics and regional trends to ensure that they gain the greatest possible influence for the funding they provide. Europeans should adopt more achievable, more targeted policy requests for economic and financial reforms in each country, and work as closely as possible with Gulf partners, which are already making greater demands of Cairo and Tunis in return for the support they give.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Migration, Foreign Aid, and Economy
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, North Africa, Egypt, and Tunisia

433. Mending fences: Europe’s stake in the Saudi-Iran detente

Author:
Julien Barnes-Dacey and Cinzia Bianco
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
Saudi-Iran rivalry has long deepened conflict lines in the Middle East. But growing mutual vulnerabilities prompted a quiet rapprochement, culminating in the 2023 Beijing de-escalation agreement. While it hasn’t led to conflict resolution, this detente has helped contain regional escalation. Dialogue between Riyadh and Tehran remains frequent amid the Gaza crisis and could become even more important after the Israeli killing of Hizbullah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah. Europeans should actively support Saudi-Iran engagement as a vital diplomatic path to regional stability, rather than viewing it as Iran’s attempt to evade US sanctions. If Iran’s new leadership is willing to engage in negotiations on the nuclear issue and other files, Europeans should see Saudi Arabia as a channel to help facilitate necessary economic relief to Iran as part of any new deal. Europeans could help both countries navigate tension around America’s regional involvement, ensuring Saudi-Israel normalisation does not undermine Saudi-Iran diplomacy. If Iran refuses to enter negotiations and relations with the West deteriorate further, Europeans should still consider Saudi Arabia as a valuable mediator between the West and Iran.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Rapprochement, Rivalry, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Europe, Iran, Middle East, and Saudi Arabia

434. Aligned in the sand: How Europeans can help stabilise the Sahel

Author:
Will Brown
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
A decade of military, humanitarian, and developmental European interventions in the Sahelian states of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger have failed comprehensively. Coups have swept the region. Burkina Faso is close to complete collapse. Europe thus faces three openly antagonistic military juntas on its southern flank, which are cutting deals with rival outside powers like Russia. The combination of past failure, disinformation campaigns, and the wars in Gaza and Ukraine have scattered European states’ approaches in all directions. Some have walked away from the Sahel completely. Others have stayed but resisted cooperation with the Sahelian juntas. A few have sought to remain engaged. European governments should stay involved in the Sahel wherever possible. The region is part of Europe’s neighbourhood; rival outside powers have no qualms about mass human-rights abuses; and further disengagement will only open up new inroads for malign actors. For European governments, this means frankly acknowledging past failures in the Sahel, gathering behind a new strategy for engagement, and supporting Gulf of Guinea states. A particular focus should be funding anti-disinformation policies.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Political stability, Military Intervention, and Disinformation
Political Geography:
Europe, North Africa, and Sahel

435. Material world: How Europe can compete with China in the race for Africa’s critical minerals

Author:
Sarah Logan
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
In the last two decades, China has come to dominate global supply chains for critical raw materials and the green energy and other technologies they enable. This increases competition and economic risks for Europe. In an effort to build CRM supply chains insulated from China, the EU has signed strategic partnerships with several politically friendly countries around the world, including in Africa. However, the EU will only realise its de-risking ambitions if the European private sector invests in CRM supply chains in partner countries in Africa and elsewhere. Yet the incentives for European companies to enter mining and processing operations in these markets are too weak. The example of Namibia shows that the EU’s strategic partnership with the country has borne little fruit – and may even be benefitting Chinese firms at European expense. To address this, the EU must enhance support to European companies to invest in securing access to critical raw materials. This should include new financial incentives and measures to protect against China manipulating prices on international markets.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, European Union, Strategic Competition, Supply Chains, Strategic Partnerships, and Critical Minerals
Political Geography:
Africa, China, Europe, Asia, and Namibia

436. Brazil: Europe’s bridge to the global south

Author:
Carla Hobbs, José I. Torreblanca, and Pawel Zerka
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
Europeans often misunderstand Brazil, either assuming it should be an eager supporter of all Western initiatives or believing it has already aligned with an anti-Western bloc led by China and Russia. Both assumptions are wrong. In reality, Brazil enjoys living in an “à la carte world”, positioning itself as a key middle power in a multipolar landscape, as evidenced by its membership of both the G20 and BRICS, alongside a dominating regional role. However, growing geopolitical competition between the US and China, along with an increasingly hostile Russia, is narrowing the space for Brazil’s non-alignment. Donald Trump’s re-election will only complicate the matter further. Brazil’s foreign policy, which historically exhibited a strong sense of continuity, is also increasingly influenced by domestic political polarisation. Europe has strong cards to position itself as Brazil’s much-needed partner for decades to come, especially given their shared interest in promoting global multilateral cooperation. But first it must respect Brazil’s own needs and aspirations.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, Global South, Multipolarity, and Lula da Silva
Political Geography:
Europe, Brazil, and South America

437. A crisis of one’s own: The politics of trauma in Europe’s election year

Author:
Ivan Krastev and Mark Leonard
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
European politics is not simply divided between left and right, and between pro- and anti-European integration attitudes – but between different ‘crisis tribes’ whose members have been traumatised by key events. In the last decade, Europe has undergone crises of the economy, security, health, climate, and migration, which have created political identities that run through and between countries. Germany is the only country whose citizens select ‘immigration’ as the issue that has affected them above all else. In France and Denmark, people choose climate change as the most important crisis. Italians and Portuguese point to global economic turmoil. In Spain, Great Britain, and Romania, the covid-19 pandemic is the principal issue. Estonians, Poles, and Danes consider the war in Ukraine to be the most transformative of crises. In the upcoming European Parliament election, covid-19, the economy, and Ukraine are unlikely to be key mobilising issues. The climate and migration crises are dominating headlines and will be especially influential in how people vote.
Topic:
Climate Change, Immigration, Elections, Trauma, European Parliament, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Europe

438. Beyond the counter-offensive: Attrition, stalemate, and the future of the war in Ukraine

Author:
Gustav Gressel
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
Russia and Ukraine are engaged in a war of attrition – which on current projections Russia is set to win. Ukraine can only achieve its war aims if it moves to a war of manoeuvre; without this, it cannot regain its lost territory. Western supplies and efforts at defence-industrial consolidation are failing to provide Ukraine with the replacement armaments it needs to survive the war of attrition, let along switch to manoeuvre warfare. The West and Europeans in particular need to overhaul their financial regulations and create economies of scale to radically stimulate the production of drones, ammunition, armoured fighting vehicles, and more. Only if they carefully absorb the lessons learned from this war will Europeans be ready for the types of great power confrontation that are becoming more likely in the 21st century
Topic:
Armed Conflict, Military Aid, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

439. The Maghreb maze: Harmonising divergent European policies in North Africa

Author:
Anthony Dworkin
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
The Maghreb policies of the four most influential EU member states are diverging, driven by national politics and their interaction with developments in the region. Italy is pushing an ‘engagement-first’ strategy for Tunisia and building energy links with Algeria, while Spain has tilted strongly towards Morocco. France’s relations with Maghreb countries are complicated by historical legacies and regional expectations, Germany is pulling back as hopes for democratic reform have faded. These divisions risk allowing Maghreb leaders to set the agenda of relations with Europe, frustrating longer-term European interests in promoting stability, reform, and effective governance. A better European approach would use strong bilateral relationships as entry points to pursue a more coordinated policy, building on areas in which EU interests converge.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Development, Reform, and European Union
Political Geography:
Europe, Algeria, North Africa, Morocco, and Maghreb

440. Wars and elections: How European leaders can maintain public support for Ukraine

Author:
Ivan Krastev and Mark Leonard
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
As Russia’s war on Ukraine approaches its second anniversary, the European Parliament and US presidential elections are also on the horizon. Against this backdrop, Vladimir Putin is banking on war fatigue in the West to help achieve a Russian victory. European public opinion can inform Europe’s leaders about how best to make the case to continue support for Ukraine in this difficult environment. Europeans seem pessimistic about Ukraine’s chances of winning the war, while a plurality think it will end in some kind of settlement. But most Europeans are not in the mood for appeasement either. They would be disappointed if Donald Trump were to be re-elected, and many believe his victory could also be a win for Putin. In most member states, a plurality would want Europe to maintain its current support or increase it in the event of the US scaling down its aid. Leaders in Ukraine and Europe need to adjust their language and define the meaning of a ‘durable peace’ to prevent Putin taking advantage of war fatigue.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Public Opinion, Armed Conflict, Military Aid, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and United States of America