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4161. China and India: Implications for the EU Economy

Author:
Daniel Gros
Publication Date:
01-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
This paper provides background information on the likely challenges the rise of China and India will pose for the economy of the EU. The purpose is mainly descriptive, namely to spell out what kind of trading partner China and India will represent for the EU in the foreseeable future. A first observation is that India is several times smaller than China in economic terms. Moreover, because its investment rates in both human and physical capital are much lower than in China, its growth potential is likely to remain more limited. China's export structure has already become rather similar to that of the EU and this 'convergence' is likely to result in the rapid accumulation of human and physical capital. If current trends continue, the Chinese economy is likely to have a capital/labour ratio similar to that of the EU. In terms of human capital, China has already caught up considerably, but further progress will be slowed down by its stable demographics and the still low enrolment ratio in tertiary education. In both areas India will lag China by several decades. The rapid accumulation of capital suggests that the emergence of China will put adjustment pressures mainly on capital-intensive industries, not the traditional sectors, such as textiles. Another source of friction that is likely to emerge derives from the abundance of coal in China, resulting in a relatively carbon- and energy-intensive economy.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
China, Europe, and India

4162. The European Union as a Normative Foreign Policy Actor

Author:
Nathalie Tocci
Publication Date:
01-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
This is the second in a series of papers from a new project entitled “Who is a normative foreign policy actor? The European Union and its Global Partners”. The first paper – entitled Profiling Normative Foreign Policy: The European Union and its Global Partners, by Nathalie Tocci, CEPS Working Document No. 279, December 2007 – set out the conceptual framework for exploring this question. The present paper constitutes one of several case studies applying this framework to the behaviour of the European Union, whereas the others to follow concern China, India, Russia and the United States. A normative foreign policy is rigorously defined as one that is normative according to the goals set, the means employed and the results obtained. Each of these studies explores eight actual case examples of foreign policy behaviour, selected in order to illustrate four alternative paradigms of foreign policy behaviour – the normative, the realpolitik, the imperialistic and the status quo. For each of these four paradigms, there are two examples of EU foreign policy, one demonstrating intended consequences and the other, unintended effects. The fact that examples can be found that fit all of these different types shows the importance of 'conditioning factors', which relate to the internal interests and capabilities of the EU as a foreign policy actor as well as the external context in which other major actors may be at work.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, China, Europe, and India

4163. Asian Power: Sino-Russian Conflict in Central Asia?

Author:
Kathleen J. Hancock
Publication Date:
01-2008
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Institution:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:
Russian President Vladimir Putin and the state-owned gas monopoly, Gazprom, made front-page news when they ceased exporting natural gas to Ukraine in the winter of 2006, leaving Europe both irate and fearful due to its dependency on Russian energy. What many failed to notice was that Russia's actions wekre consistent with a fifteen year-old policy of playing hardball with former Soviet members using gas and oil pipelines as carrots and sticks to force policies and actions favorable to Moscow.Three of the states most affected by this pipeline diplomacy and least discussed in the Western press are the resource-rich Central Asian states of Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. While energy-importing European states are vulnerable to Russia cutting supplies, exporting Central Asian states worry about Moscow shutting down pipeline access, without which they have few export options. The relationship between these states and Russia is further complicated by China's interest in Central Asia. Although Beijing and Moscow have recently patched up their rivalry, the increasing economic strength of both states plus jockeying between Russia and Central Asian states to serve as China's energy supplier may push Russia and China back into an antagonistic, and potentially dangerous, relationship.
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Europe, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Beijing, Asia, Uzbekistan, Soviet Union, and Moscow

4164. Europe's Eastern Promise: Rethinking NATO and EU Enlargement

Author:
Ronald D. Asmus
Publication Date:
01-2008
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Foreign Affairs
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
After the Cold War, NATO and the EU opened their doors to central and Eastern Europe, making the continent safer and freer than ever before. Today, NATO and the EU must articulate a new rationale for enlarging still further, once again extending democracy and prosperity to the East, this time in the face of a more powerful and defiant Russia.
Topic:
NATO
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Eastern Europe

4165. To the Editor: Russian Handshake

Author:
Harry C. Blaney III
Publication Date:
03-2008
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Foreign Affairs
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
To the Editor: Ronald Asmus' article "Europe's Eastern Promise" (January/February 2008) was right on the fundamental importance of promoting stability, security, and democracy in eastern Europe. However, such an approach should be combined with a Western strategy to engage Russia in major efforts to promote cooperation and Russia's integration with the West. Russia feels that the further extension of NATO toward its borders would not be in its interests. Although that may not be the overriding consideration in the West's decisions, it must remain part of any assessment of the long-term strategic situation and inform a larger vision for the area.
Political Geography:
Russia and Europe

4166. Armenia: Picking up the Pieces

Publication Date:
04-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Armenia's flawed presidential election, the subsequent lethal crackdown against a peaceful protest rally, the introduction of a state of emergency and extensive arrests of opposition supporters have brought the country to its deepest crisis since the war against Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh ended in 1994. The situation deprives Serzh Sarkisian, scheduled to be inaugurated as president on 9 April 2008, of badly needed legitimacy and handicaps prospects for much needed democratic reform and resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict alike. Unless the U.S., EU and others with significant diplomatic leverage over the regime in Yerevan exert pressure, Armenia is unlikely to make progress on either. The Sarkisian administration must urgently seek credible dialogue with the opposition, release prisoners detained on political grounds, stop arrests and harassment of the opposition and lift all measures limiting freedom of assembly and expression. Unless steps are taken to address the political crisis, the U.S. and EU should suspend foreign aid and put on hold negotiations on further and closer cooperation.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Political Violence, and International Cooperation
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, Armenia, and Azerbaijan

4167. Editor's Corner

Author:
Ilan Berman
Publication Date:
03-2008
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Journal of International Security Affairs
Institution:
Jewish Institute for National Security Affairs
Abstract:
Europe, it has long been said, is America's most important and enduring international partner. There is much to lend credence to this argument. After all, the political, cultural and military bonds between the United States and its allies across the Atlantic have persisted for centuries, reinforced by economic cooperation and strengthened by periods of shared conflict.
Political Geography:
United States, America, and Europe

4168. Turning the Page

Author:
Astrid Coeurderoy
Publication Date:
03-2008
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Journal of International Security Affairs
Institution:
Jewish Institute for National Security Affairs
Abstract:
Since the second half of the 20th century, an independent, U.S.-distant approach has driven French foreign policy. Under this “Gaullist line,” France has long aimed to position itself as the middleman in European and international politics.
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, and France

4169. Berlin's Best Hope

Author:
Ulf Gartzke
Publication Date:
03-2008
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Journal of International Security Affairs
Institution:
Jewish Institute for National Security Affairs
Abstract:
Since taking office in November 2005, German Chancellor Angela Merkel has racked up an impressive foreign policy record. First and foremost, Merkel moved quickly to repair transatlantic relations with Washington, which had been badly damaged over the Iraq war under former Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder's Red-Green government. While European politicians on the Left have repeatedly resorted to anti-American rhetoric as a crucial element of successful election campaigns, Germany's conservative CDU/CSU parties firmly believe that strong political and security ties with the United States are an indispensable pillar of German foreign policy. And after Tony Blair and Jacques Chirac essentially turned 10 Downing Street and the Élysée Palace into lame-duck residencies, Chancellor Merkel's early effort to reach out to Washington paid off, with her emerging as President Bush's most important partner in Europe.
Political Geography:
America, Europe, and Germany

4170. Europe's Rising East

Author:
Janusz Bugajski
Publication Date:
03-2008
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Journal of International Security Affairs
Institution:
Jewish Institute for National Security Affairs
Abstract:
Predictions for much of Central-Eastern Europe (CEE) nearly two decades ago, when the Soviet bloc was disintegrating, were basically of two sorts. The “end of history” scenario envisioned rapid democratization and economic liberalism for the region as a whole. This, however, proved too optimistic a prognosis. The second scenario posited a “return of history,” a reversion to perpetual ethnic conflict and inter-state turmoil. But this ended up being too sweeping and pessimistic a forecast. Instead, the CEE has witnessed marked diversity, not only in the pace of domestic transformation and democratic consolidation, but also in differing approaches to national security and foreign policy.
Political Geography:
Europe and Soviet Union