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3922. Can Berlin and Washington Agree on Russia?
- Author:
- Stephen F. Szabo
- Publication Date:
- 10-2009
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- The Washington Quarterly
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- Both Russia and Germany are back on the U.S. agenda. Russia will be a key element of a wide array of policies to the Obama administration, including dealing with Iran and the construction of a broader nonproliferation regime, energy security, nuclear arms reductions, and Afghanistan. Russia policy will also be central to U.S. designs for NATO, including how to deal with Georgia and Ukraine, and the viability of a pan-European security structure.
- Topic:
- NATO
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Russia, Europe, Washington, Ukraine, Georgia, and Berlin
3923. Europe's New Security Dilemma
- Author:
- Lorenzo Vidino
- Publication Date:
- 10-2009
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- The Washington Quarterly
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- After the September 11, 2001, attacks, governments throughout the world rushed to improve their counterterrorism policies. Several countries tightened legislation, increased resources available to their intelligence and law enforcement agencies, and established repressive policies to uncover and prosecute terrorist networks. Policymakers, fearing an imminent attack, understandably focused their attention on aggressive methods. Yet, over the last few years, many governments have started thinking about more nuanced, comprehensive, and long-term counterterrorism policies, understanding that simply trying to dismantle terrorist networks is like playing a never-ending game of ''whack-a-mole,'' unless steps are also taken to prevent the radicalization of scores of potential new militants.
- Topic:
- Government
- Political Geography:
- Europe
3924. The Offshore Camps of the European Union: At the Border of Humanity
- Author:
- Miriam Ticktin
- Publication Date:
- 03-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The New School Graduate Program in International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Immigrant and asylum-seeker camps like those in Libya and Morocco are the creation, manifestation, and part of the new, borderless Europe. They consist of a new post-colonial, new-liberal border-zone, a space continuously negotiated by the movement of people, new forms of surveillance technology, and new processes of supranational government. The camps are a response to both a “security” and “humanitarian” crisis, brought into reality through two governing regimes: one of policing and one of protection. The precise mechanisms produce spaces which not only divide people into citizens of one nation-state or another, but produce certain populations as surplus humans.
- Topic:
- Security, Human Rights, Migration, and Immigration
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Libya, North Africa, and Morocco
3925. Russian outward FDI and its policy context
- Author:
- Andrei Panibratov and Kalman Kalotay
- Publication Date:
- 10-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
- Abstract:
- Outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) from Russia often surprises outside observers by its landmark deals. One of them was the purchase in September 2009 of a 55% stake in General Motors' German affiliate Opel by a consortium of the Canadian car maker Magna and the Russian state-owned bank Sberbank. The latter is the largest creditor of the Russian car maker GAZ, and may represent its commercial interests in the contract. With this deal, Russia has bought into the industrial heartland of the world economy and could potentially access more advanced technology. This acquisition hints at the growth of Russian OFDI in general, which has prospered despite fears in many host countries that the investors are subject to Russian political interference, a fear that recently announced Russian policy intentions may allay.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Foreign Direct Investment
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Asia
3926. Denmark and Modern Non-proliferation Assistance and Disarmament
- Author:
- Cindy Vestergaard
- Publication Date:
- 10-2009
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies
- Abstract:
- Many countries address the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction by cooperatively allocating money, resources and expertise into projects. This DIIS Policy Brief outlines the specific areas where Denmark has the potential to expand on its already well-established expertise to develop a niche non-proliferation and disarmament programme.
- Topic:
- Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Terrorism, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Denmark
3927. Trading Away Access to Medicines: How the European Union's trade agenda has taken a wrong turn
- Publication Date:
- 10-2009
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxfam Publishing
- Abstract:
- Access to medicines poses a critical challenge in developing countries, largely because prices are high, and new or adapted medicines and vaccines to address diseases of the developing world are lacking. More than 5 million people in low and middle income countries still lack access to the anti-retroviral medicines needed to treat HIV and AIDS. Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) have unleashed a new epidemic of suffering across the developing world. Pandemics are a serious threat in rich and poor countries alike, but while rich countries can stockpile medicines, these are often unaffordable for poor countries. Most people in developing countries pay for medicines out-of-pocket, so even a slight price increase can mean that life-saving medicines are unaffordable.
- Topic:
- Development, Health, and Third World
- Political Geography:
- Europe
3928. OEF Commentary on Avian Flu
- Publication Date:
- 01-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Oxford Economics
- Abstract:
- OEF has regularly provided scenario assessments of the economic impact of a wide range of risks to the global outlook from financial market volatility to banking crises to country studies to threats arising from less economy-based disturbances such as earthquake damage and the impact of health scares like the UK's foot and mouth outbreak and Asia's SARS attack of 2003.
- Topic:
- Economics, Globalization, Health, and Infectious Diseases
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Asia
3929. Leaders and laggards, on the way down and up
- Publication Date:
- 10-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Oxford Economics
- Abstract:
- With the economies of most countries having passed their troughs, it is a good time to take stock of some of the main features of the crisis so far and to assess what the upturn may look like. In this article, we look back at how the different countries have fared in this crisis and how monetary and fiscal authorities have responded to the crisis. We then turn to the nascent recovery to compare and contrast the upturn across countries. Finally, we highlight some of the main legacies of this crisis. Exposure to financial services, housing booms, consumer debt and trade with the US were seen as factors that would make some countries suffer deeper downturns than others. In the event, the downturn has surprised by how quickly it has spread across countries. So the most affected countries turned out to be the most exposed to the world economy such as Germany, Italy, Japan and Eastern Europe. All major central banks have responded with aggressive cuts in interest rates and adopted wide-ranging unconventional measures. This has helped stabilise financial markets, but the goal of getting credit flowing to the non-financial economy has not yet been achieved. Governments have also responded to the crisis with large fiscal stimulus packages. These packages have helped contain the collapse in activity and contributed to some countries exiting the recession in 2009Q2. Whether these packages will be enough to get the world economy back on a sustainable growth path is still uncertain though. Beyond the short term, where fiscal stimulus and the stock cycle will boost growth, the recovery is expected to be sluggish and bumpy in most places. History suggests that recoveries from financial crises tend to be slower than others, and the repair of household and corporate balance sheets will be a drawn out process. In addition, with large amounts of spare capacity around the world, demand for investment will be weak for some time to come. Furthermore, the nascent upturn has already put pressure on oil and commodity prices. If this continues, it will hamper growth in net importer economies. These factors will combine with country-specific features that determine their potential growth. We forecast the recovery to be most drawn out in Italy, Japan and Germany as these countries are hit by weak demand for investment goods and are characterised by relatively low potential growth. One main legacy of this crisis is the likelihoo d of years of fiscal austerity, to bring public deficits back under control. Another legacy may be in changes to the regulation of financial services, although do date little progress has been made in this area. In addition, EMU has so far proved a resilient entity during the crisis, so that the euro could gain a more prominent role on the world stage, depending on how it fares in the upturn.
- Topic:
- Economics, Globalization, and Markets
- Political Geography:
- Japan, Europe, Germany, and Italy
3930. Eurozone Unity Under Threat?
- Publication Date:
- 03-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Oxford Economics
- Abstract:
- Ten years after the introduction of the euro, the onset of deep recession in the Eurozone has triggered concern that the single currency might impose intolerable strains upon some members. With some countries hit hard by the impact of the credit crunch, there are mounting concerns about a possible debt default by one or more member states, which in turn might threaten the euro and even the existence of the Eurozone. With the Eurozone economy forecast to contract by 3.1% this year, unemployment is starting to climb steeply and fiscal deficits are soaring. This has raised concerns about deteriorating public finances in a number of countries, leading to sharply wider spreads on government bonds and credit rating downgrades for Greece, Spain and Portugal, with Ireland maybe facing a similar fate soon. And repercussions from the growing economic crisis in Central and Eastern Europe are adding to the problem, with Austria particularly exposed. Rising bond spreads were always intended to be the mechanism that would restrain public spending by more profligate Eurozone countries. But the question now is whether the weaker economies can withstand the strains that a lengthy period of recession will impose and, at the same time, adopt credible medium-term spending plans to ward off the worst of the downturn and retain market confidence. With fiscal deficits already rising as a result of bank bailouts, fiscal packages and recession will push budget deficits far above the 3% of GDP target – Ireland, facing a deficit of 12% of GDP, and Spain will be worst hit. And with rising deficits and higher bond spreads pushing up the cost of debt, countries face a sharp rise in their level of indebtedness, with Greece and Italy seeing debt/GDP ratios around 100%. This deterioration could lead to a further downward spiral if the recession is prolonged and will be a test of countries' euro commitment, which has remained strong thus far despite rising social tensions in some countries. At this stage, the problems remain manageable and the risk of default or of countries leaving the euro is still very low. Bond spreads are still much lower than during much of the 1990s, when countries were striving to qualify for euro membership, and the currency risks attached to leaving the euro would be substantial. Moreover, EU countries that have been exposed to considerable currency strain over the past year are anxious to join the Eurozone as soon as possible, to take advantage of the benefits of a stable currency. While some smaller countries may experience financial difficulties, it seems inevitable that the larger Eurozone members would step in to stabilise the situation – failure to do so would risk contagion spreading to other countries, which in turn would cause even deeper problems for the euro. More policy action also seems likely to counter this threat – although the German government will probably remain reluctant to countenance the scale of expansionary fiscal policy really needed at this time. Current policies inevitably mean a long hard slog back towards fiscal rectitude in the years ahead, with monetary policy also tightening and growth slower than previously expected. Fiscal federalism may also have to be on the agenda. All this will undoubtedly lead to ongoing strains within the Eurozone. And any measures by governments that appear to be protectionist – such as the support for the French car industry – will only fuel these tensions.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Germany