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3541. The Role of Penal Reform in Security Sector Reform

Author:
Megan Bastick
Publication Date:
01-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance (DCAF)
Abstract:
Penal reform activities have been carried on in Europe and the United States since at least the late eighteenth century. Security sector reform (SSR), a much newer concept, is a governance-driven approach that looks to strengthen the roles of both state and non-state actors to deliver security to individuals and communities. As such, attention to the penal system is important in any comprehensive SSR process. However, much SSR programming overlooks penal elements, and lessons learnt through long experience in penal reform have not been applied to other SSR activities. There is limited discourse between the penal reform community of practice and the wider SSR community.
Topic:
Security, Governance, Law, and Prisons/Penal Systems
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

3542. Challenges for Integrated Border Management in the European Union

Author:
Otwin Marenin
Publication Date:
01-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance (DCAF)
Abstract:
The expansion of the European Union has required a rethinking of how the external borders of the EU can best be protected against transnational crime, illegal immigration, trafficking in goods and people, non-legitimate asylum seekers and terrorist-related threats. The history, strategic logic, issues faced and current policies for securing the expanding external borders of the EU through the integrated border management (IBM) vision and strategy will be described and critically analysed. The paper is based on information in publicly available documents from EU institutions, scholarly writings on borders and the management of border controls, my own prior writings on border controls and police reforms, and a few interviews with participants involved in creating a new EU integrated border management system.
Topic:
Crime, Regional Cooperation, Terrorism, and Immigration
Political Geography:
Europe

3543. The Method behind the Mark: A Review of Firearm Marking Technologies

Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Small Arms Survey
Abstract:
Record-keeping is an essential prerequisite for limiting the illicit proliferation of small arms and light weapons. A robust record-keeping system provides the necessary means to trace small arms1 and investigate the illicit trade. The marking of small arms is a necessary component of the recordkeeping; it links a specific small arm to a unique record for that item.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Crime, Terrorism, Insurgency, and Law Enforcement
Political Geography:
Africa and Europe

3544. The limitations of European Union reports on arms exports: the case of Central Asia

Author:
Mark Bromley and Paul Holtom
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
All European Union (EU) member states are required to submit information on arms export licences and arms exports for inclusion in the EU annual reports on arms exports. The example of Central Asia— Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan—shows that the data in these EU annual reports has only a limited utility for monitoring exports of arms and military equipment. The specific case of Uzbekistan, which was subject to an EU arms embargo between 2005 and 2009, shows that certain transfers of apparent concern have been reported but not investigated, while other transfers have not appeared in the annual reports.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, International Trade and Finance, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
Europe, Central Asia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan

3545. Is Greece heading for default?

Publication Date:
02-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
Greece has slid into a serious fiscal crisis over the last few months. A ballooning budget deficit and high levels of government debt have raised questions in the minds of investors about the sustainability of the country's public finances. The level of concern among investors can be seen from developments in Greek borrowing costs relative to those in Germany. At the beginning of 2008, the yield on Greek 10-year bonds was only around 0.3% higher than on equivalent German securities, but this gap has now risen to over 3%. This yield spread is at its widest for more than a decade and is by far the largest within the Eurozone. The root cause of Greece's problems is a long period of fiscal indiscipline. In 2009, after years of heavy spending, the budget deficit rose to almost 13% of GDP and the public debt to GDP ratio is set to reach 125% this year. The deteriorating fiscal position has led to a slew of ratings downgrades, and outside the Eurozone Greece's credit rating would probably be in 'junk' territory. On top of the fiscal problems, Greece also suffers from weak external competitiveness. The real exchange rate has appreciated substantially since Greece joined the Eurozone, contributing to a sharp widening in the current account deficit to around 12% of GDP last year. On some estimates, the real effective exchange rate is now around 20% overvalued. As a result Greece now faces a series of policy choices all of which look unpalatable. Within the Eurozone, the only realistic orthodox option is a combination of massive fiscal retrenchment and 'internal devaluation' – forcing down costs relative to those of Greece's competitors. But fiscal cutbacks and cost deflation on the scale required could plunge the country into a deep and prolonged recession and might prove politically and socially unsustainable. The Greek economy is already showing signs of serious stress, with GDP down 2.6% on the year in 2009Q4. The extreme alternatives are default and/or leaving the Eurozone and enacting devaluation. But the political barriers to such moves are immense, and while default and devaluation could ease budgetary and external imbalance problems, they would also cause massive economic and financial disruption and probably a deeper recession in the near-term. Default and devaluation would also risk huge negative contagion effects on the Eurozone and the wider global economy. With Greece's debt approaching €300 billion a default would be the largest sovereign collapse since WWII, dwarfing those in Russia and Argentina. Eurozone banks could face losses of up to €100 billion on top of the heavy writedowns already suffered, risking a renewed Europe-wide credit squeeze. There could also be collapses in demand for the debt of other weaker Eurozone members such as Spain, Portugal and Ireland. World markets for equities, corporate bonds and emerging market debt would also likely be badly affected. There could also be pressure for the major economies to accelerate their fiscal adjustment efforts, given the impact on investor confidence and the scale of their budget deficits. Our estimation results suggest that a Greek default could be a real threat to the progress of the global recovery, cutting growth in the major economies by around 1% per annum compared to our baseline forecast and world growth by 0.6%. Given the potential massive consequences of a Greek default, the pressure for a bailout has been growing. Although there are questions about the legality of such a move, we believe it is possible if the political will exists. Estimation results using the Oxford Model suggest a bailout would be likely to be less economically damaging than a default, even assuming some negative impact from higher bond yields in the core Eurozone countries. The costs of a bailout could rise rapidly, however, if it extended beyond Greece to other troubled countries. A bailout would create a big risk of moral hazard, perhaps inducing fiscal misbehaviour among other Eurozone members or being used by Greece to sidestep the necessary adjustment. To avoid this, any bailout would have to incorporate strict conditionality, perhaps raising serious questions about fiscal sovereignty within the Eurozone. Over the last two weeks, the other EU countries have taken a relatively hard line with Greece, stopping short of announcing explicit financial support and pushing for strong fiscal adjustment measures. Although a bailout remains the most likely outcome if Greece struggles to refinance its debts, there are some signs that political resistance to such a move is growing. The key risk period could be April-May, when a large volume of Greek debt matures.
Topic:
Economics, Markets, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe, Greece, and Argentina

3546. Powerplay: Origins of the U.S. Alliance System in Asia

Author:
Victor D. Cha
Publication Date:
01-2010
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Security
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
In East Asia the United States cultivated a "hub and spokes" system of discrete, exclusive alliances with the Republic of Korea, the Republic of China, and Japan, a system that was distinct from the multilateral security alliances it preferred in Europe. Bilateralism emerged in East Asia as the dominant security structure because of the "powerplay" rationale behind U.S. postwar planning in the region. "Powerplay" refers to the construction of an asymmetric alliance designed to exert maximum control over the smaller ally's actions. The United States created a series of bilateral alliances in East Asia to contain the Soviet threat, but a congruent rationale was to constrain "rogue allies"- that is, rabidly anticommunist dictators who might start wars for reasons of domestic legitimacy and entrap the United States in an unwanted larger war. Underscoring the U.S. desire to avoid such an outcome was a belief in the domino theory, which held that the fall of one small country in Asia could trigger a chain of countries falling to communism. The administrations of Harry Truman and Dwight Eisenhower calculated that they could best restrain East Asia's pro-West dictators through tight bilateral alliances rather than through a regionwide multilateral mechanism. East Asia's security bilateralism today is therefore a historical artifact of this choice.
Topic:
Security
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, China, Europe, and Asia

3547. Civilizing the World Order? The Scope and Potential of Transnational Norm-building Networks

Author:
Robert Kappel, Ulrich Mückenberger, and Cord Jakobeit
Publication Date:
01-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
Civil society organizations, epistemic communities, and lobby groups—what we call transnational norm-building networks—are influencing the global economy and global politics more than ever before. We argue that such transnational norm-building networks, in contrast to the dominating executive intergovernmental elites and democratically deficient supranational bodies, hold the scope and potential for a more civilized world order. They are—together with states and international governmental organizations—creating new norms; they are setting standards. They associate the voice of stakeholders with decision-making processes, thus leading to an increase in legitimate world governance.
Topic:
Civil Society, Economics, Globalization, and International Organization
Political Geography:
Europe

3548. NATO and the (Re-)Constitution of Roles: "Self", "We" and "Other"?

Author:
Trine Flockhart
Publication Date:
03-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
The popular perception of the role of NATO was famously defined by NATO's first Secretary General, Lord Ismay, as “keeping the Russians out, the Americans in and the Germans down”. NATO's role is still essentially to keep its members safe from threats, to ensure the cohesion of the transatlantic relationship, and to transform relations between former foes. However, behind this alluringly simple description of NATO, lie complex “self”, “we” and “other” definitions and perceptions of roles and relevant functional tasks. This paper seeks to unravel some of the complex processes of constituting and re-constituting NATO's roles. By utilizing a combination of role theory and social identity theory the paper traces how NATO has been engaged in complex and simultaneous processes of having a role set defined for it, whilst also being deeply involved in constructing its own identity and the identity of its member states, prospective member states and partners.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, NATO, International Cooperation, and International Organization
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

3549. Adjustment Difficulties in the GIPSY Club

Author:
Daniel Gros
Publication Date:
03-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
This paper describes the key economic variables and mechanisms that will determine the adjustment process in those euro area countries now under financial market pressure. (Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain and Italy = GIPSY) The key finding is that the adjustment will be particularly difficult for Greece (and Portugal) because these are two relatively closed economies with low savings rates. Both of these countries are facing a solvency problem because they combine high debt levels with low growth and high interest rates. Fiscal and external adjustment is thus required for sustainability, not just to satisfy the Stability Pact. By contrast, Ireland and Spain face more of a liquidity than a solvency problem. Italy seems to have a much better starting position on all accounts. Fiscal adjustment alone will not be sufficient to ensure sustainability. Without significant reductions in labour costs, these economies will face years of stagnation at best. Especially in the case of Greece, it is imperative that the cuts in public sector wages are transmitted to the entire economy in order to restore competitiveness, and thus ensure that export growth can become a vital safety valve. Without an adjustment of wages in the private sector, the adjustment will become so difficult that failure cannot be excluded.
Topic:
Debt, Economics, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe, Greece, Spain, Italy, Portugal, and Ireland

3550. Restoring Investor Confidence in European Capital Markets

Author:
Diego Valiante
Publication Date:
02-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
Investors have a longer memory than the sell‐side of the market. To regain their trust, intensive work needs to be done in the coming years. The new European Commissioner of the Internal Market, Michel Barnier, will play a pivotal role here. In the area of capital markets, he will need the support of a determined European Parliament, a strong commitment from the Council and Member States, as well as active contributions from the CESR/ESMA , other Level 3 Committees/Authorities and national supervisors. We believe that participants in capital markets share the same goal: to make them as efficient and effective as possible. The ability to collect savings and allocate them to investment, and to allow all participants to defray risk, is at the heart of any successful modern economy. This requires effective regulation that not only mandates common standards, but also promotes accountability, responsibility and transparency, while at the same time encouraging innovation. Effective regulation must not impose undue costs, if markets are to remain efficient and effective. However, we should be conscious that the crisis has been so deep that there is a collective need to go back to the basic principles of financial regulation and supervision.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe