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3142. Israel's Pessimistic View of the Arab Spring
- Author:
- Daniel Byman
- Publication Date:
- 06-2011
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- The Washington Quarterly
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- Americans took heart as they watched Egyptian demonstrators rally in Tahrir Square and topple the regime of Hosni Mubarak in a peaceful revolution. Next door in Israel, however, the mood was somber: “When some people in the West see what's happening in Egypt, they see Europe 1989,” an Israeli official remarked. “We see it as Tehran 1979.” Political leaders vied to see who could be the most pessimistic, with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu publicly warning that it was even possible that “Egypt will go in the direction of Iran,” with the new Cairo government becoming even more dictatorial and lashing out abroad. As he pointed out in remarks to the Knesset, “They too had demonstrations; multitudes filled the town squares. But, of course it progressed in a different way.” As unrest spread from Egypt to Bahrain, Jordan, Syria, and Yemen, the gloom seemed to deepen.
- Political Geography:
- America, Europe, Iran, Yemen, Arabia, Syria, Egypt, Jordan, and Bahrain
3143. Coordinating Regional and Multilateral Financial Institutions
- Author:
- C. Randall Henning
- Publication Date:
- 03-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- Recent crises and the expansion of international financial arrangements have dramatically elevated the importance of cooperation between regional institutions and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). While the case for coordination between regional and multilateral institutions is generally accepted, however, the need to organize it on an ex ante basis is not fully appreciated. The relatively successful cooperation among the European Commission, European Central Bank, and IMF on the European debt crisis is not likely to be easily replicated in joint programs for countries in other regions, moreover, and the costs of coordination failure could be very large. Recent innovations at the IMF, on the other hand, present opportunities for cooperation with regional facilities. Henning reviews (1) the case for organizing cooperation on an ex ante basis, (2) the policy and institutional matters that should be coordinated, (3) how East Asian arrangements in particular and the IMF might cooperate, and (4) an Interinstitutional Agenda of general principles, modalities, and institutional recommendations. The G-20, member states, and institutions themselves should address this agenda proactively.
- Topic:
- Debt, Economics, Regional Cooperation, International Monetary Fund, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Europe and East Asia
3144. Europe on the Brink
- Author:
- Simon Johnson and Peter Boone
- Publication Date:
- 07-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- Attempts to resolve the problems in Europe are failing, and the crisis is spreading from Greece, Ireland, and Portugal to larger nations. Europe's financial system relies on moral hazard, i.e., a “no defaults” policy, to attract the funding needed to roll over large amounts of short–term bank and sovereign debt. Now that politicians in creditor nations are calling for private sector burden sharing, investors are demanding higher interest rates to hold these debts. But higher rates may tip banks and nations toward bankruptcy. Europe's banks and financial system are highly integrated across countries. Rising expectations of default in some countries could lead to large-scale capital flight into “safe” countries. This shift will raise concerns regarding solvency and liquidity of many financial institutions. The payments system of the euro area is serving as an opaque bailout mechanism that is currently preventing the euro area from falling apart at this time. If the number of nations in trouble spreads beyond Greece, Ireland, and Portugal, this bailout system will be stressed because of the potential size of accumulated funding. The European Central Bank (ECB) could soon see a vocal debate between inflationist and hawkish (anti–inflation) members. Inflationists will call for large–scale interventions, including bond buybacks and emergency loans, while the hawks will attempt to close loopholes in the payments system that effectively permit each troubled nation to create money needed to finance capital flight and budget deficits. At this stage in the debate, we see little chance that Europe can avoid ending the “moral hazard” regime, in which case it needs to plan for widespread sovereign and bank debt restructurings.
- Topic:
- Debt, Economics, Regional Cooperation, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Greece, and Ireland
3145. Turkey's 2000/1 Banking Crisis: A Case Study for the Transformation of the Greek Finance?
- Author:
- Onur Bayramoğlu
- Publication Date:
- 08-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Global Political Trends Center
- Abstract:
- On April 2010, recently after the eruption of the Greek crisis, an unexpected hand from Turkey reached to Greece. Proud with his country's last decade growth figures, Turkey's then Vice Prime Minister, Ali Babacan, paid a visit to Greece in order to share his country's reform period after its 2000/1 crisis, arguing that it could also be a case study for Greece. In this brief, I analyzed Greek and Turkish financial crises. Although it is a mere fact that the structural problems in Greek economy complicate the reform period in Greece, there are certain lessons that Greeks can learn from the Turkish experience. As Turks did after 2001, they should see the crisis as an opportunity to overcome the long time problems . In this regard, Greeks first and foremost should establish consensus among themselves, signaling to the markets that they are ready to face the burdens of the reform period.
- Topic:
- Debt, Economics, International Political Economy, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Central Asia, Turkey, and Greece
3146. Partial sovereign bond insurance by the eurozone: A more efficient alternative to blue (Euro-)bonds
- Author:
- Hans-Joachim Dübel
- Publication Date:
- 08-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies
- Abstract:
- 'Blue' or Eurobonds guaranteed via joint and several liability by the eurozone member states have been proposed as an important tool to stabilise and structure the eurozone sovereign bond markets. But in this new Policy Brief, Hans-Joachim Dübel argues the case for a partial insurance of sovereign bonds by the European Stability Mechanism. Hans-Joachim Dübel is an independent financial sector consultant based in Berlin and founder of Finpolconsult.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Regional Cooperation, and Monetary Policy
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Berlin
3147. The Eurozone Debt Crisis: From its origins to a way forward
- Author:
- Diego Valiante
- Publication Date:
- 08-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies
- Abstract:
- The Eurozone debt crisis has now reached a turning point. This paper argues for a more organised intervention by the ECB to stop contagion through the creation of a quantitative easing programme, coupled with a political agreement among member states on a more federalist budget for the Eurozone.
- Topic:
- Debt, Economics, Regional Cooperation, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Europe
3148. Only a more active ECB can solve the euro crisis
- Author:
- Paul De Grauwe
- Publication Date:
- 08-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies
- Abstract:
- The biggest threat for the eurozone is the contagion of the Greek sovereign debt crisis to the rest of the system. If the Greek crisis could be isolated, it would barely matter for the eurozone as a whole. After countless crisis meetings of the European Council, however, it has to be admitted that the European leaders have failed to isolate the Greek crisis and to stop the forces of contagion. The latest meeting of the heads of state or government of the euro area on July 21st is no exception.
- Topic:
- Debt, Markets, Regional Cooperation, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Europe
3149. Putting Politics above Markets: Historical Background to the Greek Debt Crisis
- Author:
- Takis Michas
- Publication Date:
- 08-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- Political clientelism and rent seeking have been the central organizing principles of Greek society since the foundation of the Greek state in the 19th century. The influence of the Eastern Orthodox Church on Greek nationalism and the legacy of the patrimonialist Ottoman empire produced a weak civil society. The result has been a disproportionately large Greek state and public bureaucracy since the 1800s that set the stage for rent-seeking struggles that have followed.
- Topic:
- Corruption, Debt, Financial Crisis, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- Europe
3150. Making UN Peacekeeping More Robust: Protecting the Mission, Persuading the Actors
- Author:
- Patrice Sartre
- Publication Date:
- 08-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Peace Institute
- Abstract:
- The debate about robust peacekeeping pits the enthusiasm of "diplomats," who believe in peacekeeping but worry that it might not succeed in violent situations, against the scepticism of the "military," who see its failures as proof that the proper role of military forces is war fighting.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Peace Studies, War, and Peacekeeping
- Political Geography:
- Europe