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1. Does Trade Exposure Explain Antiglobalization Votes?

Author:
Antoine Bouët, Anthony Edo, and Charlotte Emlinger
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII)
Abstract:
We investigate the local effects of trade exposure and immigration on voting behavior in France from 1988 to 2022. We use the content of each candidate's manifesto to construct an anti-globalization voting index for each French presidential election. This index shows a significant increase in the anti-globalization positions of candidates, and a growing anti-globalization vote beyond the far right. We show that increasing local exposure to import competition and immigration increases anti-globalization votes, while increasing export exposure reduces them. We also find that imports have different effects depending on the products imported. While exposure to imports of final goods increases anti-globalization voting, exposure to imports of intermediate goods reduces it.
Topic:
Globalization, Political Economy, Immigration, Voting, and Trade
Political Geography:
Europe and France

2. Minorities report: the attitudes of Britain’s ethnic minority population

Author:
Zain Mohyuddin, James Kanagasooriam, and Sophie Stowers
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
Research suggests that ethnic minority voters often have political and social views at variance with those held by the population as a whole, and indeed by other ethnic groups. Yet we often lack the data to examine these attitudes and how they differ. This report aims to set that right. It attempts to look at the diversity of political opinion, social values and economic preferences not just between Britain’s white and non-white population, but between different ethnic and religious groups. The report looks not just at voting and elections, but more broadly at questions of identity, tolerance, and experiences of race and discrimination. It covers political views and values at both the 2019 and 2024 elections, questions of identity, being ‘British’, discrimination and prejudice, and economic preferences and social values. Report co-author James Kanagasooriam identifies 10 key takeaways: We are at an inflection point in terms of how ethnic minorities vote. We should not overstate how poorly the right performs, and how well the left does, amongst ethnic minority Britons. The demography of right and left is vastly different between white and non-white voters. There is a large degree of disagreement between ethnic minorities- to some degree larger than that between the white and non-white population- on the role of the state. There are a clutch of issues – immigration and multiculturalism – where ethnic minorities are much more positive than the rest of Britain. At future elections, Labour cannot rely on ethnic minority voters as a ‘bloc’ of support. There is evidence of some prejudice among certain ethnic minority voters toward other minority groups. The degree of importance placed amongst minority respondents on their personal religion is out of step with the growing secularism of white Britain. There is a wide difference between minority groups on their experience of racism and of representation. Ethnic minority and white Britons share common diagnoses about what is politically important, what they want out of a government, which cultural institutions are important, what British culture is, and what it means to be British.
Topic:
Public Opinion, Minorities, Elections, Ethnicity, Discrimination, and Voting
Political Geography:
Britain, United Kingdom, and Europe

3. COVID-19 and Voter Turnout in Europe and in Korea

Author:
Dong-Hee Joe
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:
Even while we are suffering from the COVID-19 pandemic, cyclical events arrive mercilessly as scheduled. While some of them are held virtually (i.e., online), some cannot be completely virtualized, at least as of now, including national elections. A major risk in holding an election during a pandemic is the increase of contagion due to the gathering of people in polling stations and campaign events. The opposite direction of causality, that is, from contagion to voter turnout, is another serious, but much less recognized, risk, because voters may refrain from voting due to health concerns. This Brief reviews some of the empirical studies on the relation between the prevalence of COVID-19 and voter turnout in recent elections in Europe and Korea. It also discusses their implications for election administration during pandemic.
Topic:
Elections, Voting, COVID-19, and Turnout
Political Geography:
Europe, Asia, and South Korea

4. Risks and Benefits of i-Voting in Public Opinion: Evidence from Poland

Author:
Izabela Kapsa and Magdalena Musial-Karg
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:
Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:
Apart from benefits, internet voting security is most frequently discussed by opponents and supporters of this form of electoral participation. Although this voting method is not available in Poland, the debate on the implementation of i-voting appears in each election. The COVID-19 pandemic showed a great need to implement additional remote voting methods in the elections, and increasingly more countries are considering the introduction of i-vote in the future. Although there is no plan for the nearest future in Poland, citizens' opinions suggest that this voting procedure would meet many of its users. The paper's main aim is to analyse Poles' opinions about the risks and benefits of internet voting. The results of our own studies are based on a survey among Poles regarding their views on internet voting. The main goal is to verify if Poles more often highlight the benefits than risks of i-voting, and if the opinions about risks and benefits of i-voting differ depending on respondents’ sex, age, education and domicile.
Topic:
Security, Elections, Voting, Innovation, and Political Participation
Political Geography:
Europe and Poland

5. Analysis of the Integrity Index for Parliamentary Elections in the Albanian Developing Representative Democracy

Author:
Andon Kume
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:
Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:
This research aimed to analyze the Albanian parliamentary elections held in 2013, 2017, and 2021 in order to evaluate the process of development of representative democracy in Albania, one of the post-communist countries of the Western Balkans. The analysis was based on assessing the dynamics of the Electoral Integrity Index (PEI) as a quantitative indicator that reflects the level of fulfillment of international standards for democratic elections. The PEI was evaluated using the average perception values for 11 indicators reflecting the election process. Based on the value of the PEI2013 (54.1 scores), PEI2017 (53.3 scores), and PEI2021 (57.7 scores), the parliamentary elections in Albania were considered as processes that do not exceed the ‘moderate’ level. The non-significant difference between 2013, 2017, and 2021 PEI (p>0.05) demonstrated low progress in developing democratic performances in Albanian society.
Topic:
Elections, Democracy, Voting, and Parliamentarism
Political Geography:
Europe and Albania

6. Macedonian Election Rules: Citizens Vis-A-Vis Political Parties

Author:
Nojana Naumovska and Milka Dimitrovska
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:
Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:
The Macedonian election rules, i.e. the setting of the electoral system, produce a double effect, an effect on the voter, and an effect on the party system. Therefore, each change in the electoral regulations would not only alter the voters’ comportment but also impact the political parties. Considering these effects, the paper aimed to compare the attitudes of the citizens and political parties regarding the electoral legislature (both for the parliamentary and local elections); and produce adequate electoral solutions as a corrective for the detected shortcomings of the current regulations. The paper relied on content analysis of theoretical literature and research, empirical qualitative research based on citizens’ focus groups from each region in Macedonia, questioned political parties, and additional data analysis. The ultimate findings propose a way to promote the equal value of each vote, proportional regional representation, and MPs' accountability at the parliamentary elections. For the local elections, the proposed solution referred to reducing the election cost, the possibility of political bargaining, and preserving the legitimacy of elected mayors.
Topic:
Elections, Voting, Political Parties, and Partisanship
Political Geography:
Europe and Macedonia

7. Regional Deprivation and Populism - Evidence from Germany and the U.S.

Author:
Michael Bayerlein
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
A widely held view is that increasing globalisation and inequality are fostering support for populist actors. Surprisingly, when focusing on Germany and the U.S., populist voting is highest in less globalised regions with rather equal income distributions. Addressing this puzzle, I ask how the regional variance in populist voting can be explained. In my answer, I introduce the concept of spatial inequality, which describes the regional inequality within countries, and construct a measure of public goods scarcity. I argue that the spatial inequality induced feeling of being left behind is positively correlated with populist voting and that this effect is mitigated by public goods provision. Using county level data to develop spatial inequality and public good scarcity indices, I can provide empirical support for these arguments. The findings have important implications for understanding the sub-national variance in populist voting and the role of relative economic deprivation as well as public goods provision.
Topic:
Globalization, Inequality, Populism, Voting, Regional Economy, and Public Goods
Political Geography:
Europe, Germany, North America, and United States of America

8. Comfortable leavers: the expectations and hopes of the overlooked Brexit voters

Author:
UK in a Changing Europe
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
This briefing paper draws on workshops conducted by NatCen in summer 2020 with a group of voters we have labelled ‘Comfortable Leavers’. Often overlooked, in favour of narratives that have emphasised the role of the ‘left behind,’ we thought it important to understand what this sizeable part of the Leave vote thought about Brexit and hoped for the future of the country.
Topic:
Politics, Public Opinion, Brexit, Voting, and Society
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

9. When The Stakes Are High: Campaign Messages in Hungary

Author:
Zsofia Bocskay
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:
Transatlantic Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:
While municipal elections are of less importance than national ones, the study of local election communication shows that there are cases when political actors frame them as first-order elections. In 2019, the opposition managed to challenge the ruling Fidesz-KDNP alliance in Hungary, and gained mayoral offices in strategically important places. In the campaign, PM Viktor Orbán’s party stressed the importance of local elections, utilizing a complex conspiracy theory. They argued that the stakes were high because Hungary’s sovereignty was at risk. In this article, I evaluate the findings of a content analysis conducted on 86 speeches that were performed as part of the ruling party’s election campaign with a special focus on topics and character remarks.
Topic:
Elections, Local, Voting, and Campaigning
Political Geography:
Europe and Hungary

10. Genderizing of the Participation in the Decision-Making Process: The Electoral Quota and Female Leadership in Albania

Author:
Evis Garunja
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:
Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:
This paper is focused on the Albanian electoral system, its total inclusion approach, protection and promotion of gender characteristics, historical and legal developments on the gender quotas necessity, the comparison in time and space, the barriers and opportunities to promote gender politics in public and social area in Albania. The methodology will consist of a comparative analysis of legislation, the international legal framework, recommendations of international institutions, policy papers on identifying the causes why higher gender representation in politics produces estimated results in the public area, social and economic development. Analysis of the circumstances, historical periods, social and economic impact in legal amendments would be another methodology component. Gender quotas provide a critical minority of women, from 20% to a gender balance of 50%, either as an education of the community to face with real gender balance in common life.
Topic:
Gender Issues, Elections, Democracy, Voting, and Electoral Systems
Political Geography:
Europe and Albania