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161. BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA: PARSING THE OPTIONS

Author:
Michael Dziedzic and Megan Chabalowski
Publication Date:
09-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
On June 25, 2009, USIP hosted a public forum, “Bosnia and Herzegovina: Parsing the Options,” where various courses of action for U.S. policy toward Bosnia and its unfinished state-building were debated. At issue are Bosnia's current conditions and what to do about them: Is the country on a trajectory toward instability and violence, or is it making hesitant progress? What is needed to overcome ethnic tensions between Bosnia's political leaders and how can the international community induce them into productive negotiations over reforms? What should the U.S.'s role be in Bosnia's integration process into the EU?
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Regional Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, and War
Political Geography:
Europe and Balkans

162. The Judgement of the German Constitutional Court on the Lisbon Treaty

Author:
Michael Bothe
Publication Date:
06-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
By its judgment of 30 June 2009, the German Federal Constitutional Court cleared the way for the German ratification of the Lisbon Treaty. The reasoning of the Court, however, contains fundamental holdings on the current legal character of the European Union and on constitutional limitations concerning its possible development.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, and Law
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

163. Eastern Partnership and Conflicts in the South Caucasus: Old Wine in New Skins?

Author:
Nona Mikhelidze
Publication Date:
08-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
On 7 May 2009 in Prague the European Union inaugurated its Eastern Partnership (EaP). The initiative is based on a Polish-Swedish proposal of May 2008, which was held in standby until 2009. It took a full-blown war for the EU to pull this proposal out of the closet, as the August 2008 Georgian-Russian conflict and the ensuing Russian recognition of independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia posed new challenges to European foreign policy.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Poland, Georgia, and Sweden

164. The Dead Souls: How to deal with the Russian surplus?

Author:
Anna Korppoo
Publication Date:
09-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The 10-15% reduction target by 2020 announced by Russia reflects neither the country's efficiency potential, nor modeled emissions trends. With emission reduction measures, Russia could commit to a target of ca. -30% by 2020. Transferring the surplus emission allowances Russia gained under the Kyoto Protocol due to the economic restructuring of the 1990s represents an extreme threat to both the environmental and market integrity of the Copenhagen agreement as it could be used to offset real domestic emission reduction measures in other countries. But it seems politically unlikely that Russia would join without transferring the surplus under the Copenhagen agreement. Countries should recognize the threat posed by the surplus, and offer a cooperative strategy to deal with it. However, pushing through a 'cancel or discount' approach to the surplus problem by three-quarter majority, which could be brought together without the co-operation of the surplus-holding countries, should be kept as a reserve strategy. More ambitious targets - beyond the 25-40% suggested by the IPCC - for the Annex I industrialized country group, especially for the surplus holding countries including Russia, could absorb the transferred surplus. However, given the current low pledges of Annex 1 countries, higher targets are unlikely to absorb the whole surplus, and therefore, a basket of approaches should be applied. To gain credibility on this issue of vis-à-vis Russia and to avoid Russia setting the tone, before Copenhagen the EU must adopt an internal solution to deal with the surplus of its new member states. If expecting to transfer the surpluses, the other surplus holding countries including Russia could announce national surplus use plans prior to the Copenhagen climate talks. In order to minimize a scenario of Russia blocking the Copenhagen process in the final hours, key countries should publically engage Russia on climate and the Copenhagen talks. Important Annex I countries, especially the US, should send very high-level representatives to Moscow like they have sent to China and India.
Topic:
Climate Change and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, China, Europe, India, and Asia

165. Russian pledge vs. business-as-usual: Impelementing energy efficiency policies can curb carbon emissions

Author:
Anna Korppoo, Aleksandra Novikova, and Maria Sharmina
Publication Date:
12-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
In June 2009, President Medvedev announced that the Russian Federation could limit its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions growth to-10 to 15% by 2020, compared to 1990 levels. In August 2009, this commitment was confirmed by the Russian delegation as Russia's midterm target. Russia further committed to limiting emissions by 22-25% in comparison to the 1990 level by 2020 in the EU-Russia Summit in Stockholm in November.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Russia and Europe

166. Perceptions and misperceptions in the EU and Turkey: Stumbling blocks on the road to accession

Author:
Peter M.E. Volten(ed.)
Publication Date:
10-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Security Studies
Abstract:
In 1963, Turkey and the European Union (EU) agreed on an Association Treaty. Turkey did not apply for EU membership until 1987 and this formal application was recognised at the EU summit in Helsinki as late as 1999. Political reforms in Turkey started in earnest after the Justice and Development Party (AKP) came to power in 2002, indicating a sincere interest in membership. As a result of these steps, the EU decided in 2004 to start negotiations; these began in 2005. Fairly soon thereafter, however, developments on both sides stalled and relations between the two deteriorated.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Europe and Turkey

167. Strength in numbers? Comparing EU military capabilities in 2009 with 1999

Author:
Daniel Keohane and Charlotte Blommestijn
Publication Date:
12-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Union Institute for Security Studies
Abstract:
EU governments formally launched the European Security and Defence Policy (now renamed the Common Security and Defence Policy) in lune 1999, shortly after NATO's war in Kosovo. That war exposed huge equip¬ment gaps between US and European armed forces. Euopeans did not have adequate transport or communica¬tions equipment, or enough deployable soldiers. Since the Helsinki summit in December 1999 therefore, EU governments have committed themselves to a number of military reform plans. The essential aim of these plans has been to develop more useful equipment for international peacekeeping, such as transport planes and helicopters, and encourage a reform of national armies oriented away from territorial defence towards external deployments.
Topic:
Security and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Europe, Kosovo, and Balkans

168. Understanding Klaus: The Story of Czech Eurorealism

Author:
Mats Braun
Publication Date:
11-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
It is somewhat ironic that Czech eurosceptics managed to delay the ratification process of the Lisbon Treaty at a time when they seem to be in decline as a political force. President Klaus and his allies are becoming increasingly isolated within Czech political circles and lack the support of any established political party other than the Communists. The twin pressures of domestic vote utilisation and socialisation at the EU level are making Czech eurorealists within the Civic Democratic Party less eurosceptic. It is still too early to speak of any complete change within the party, however, and any evidence of a reorientation of the party's EU policy remains ambiguous.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Europe and Lisbon

169. The Treaty of Lisbon and the Czech Constitutional Court: Act II

Author:
Ivo Slosarcik
Publication Date:
10-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
In October 2009, the lion's share of media and political attention given to the ratification process of the Lisbon Treaty in the Czech Republic has been devoted to the antics of the President, Václav Klaus. However, it is important to point out that the process is being delayed not only by the President's reservations and requests for a Czech (quasi)opt-out from the EU Charter of Fundamental Rights, but also by the pending review of the Treaty by the Czech Constitutional Court (CCC), which is set to give a second ruling on the Lisbon Treaty on November 3 rd, having delivered its first decision in autumn 2008.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Europe and Czech Republic

170. Central Asia's growing partnership with China

Author:
Sébastien Peyrouse
Publication Date:
10-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
Since the start of the 2000s, the People's Republic of China (PRC) has become an increasingly important player on the Central Asian scene, which until then had been essentially divided between Russia and the US. Today, Central Asia's future lies in its ability to avoid the destabilisations of the Afghan–Pakistan zone, and through Chinese influence, to partake of the Asia–Pacific's economic prosperity. In less than two decades, Beijing has managed to make a massive and multiform entry onto the Central Asian scene: it has proven itself a loyal partner on the level of bilateral diplomacy and has succeeded in turning the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) into a regional structure appreciated by its members. China has also become a leading actor in trade as well as in the hydrocarbon sector and infrastructure. In examining the shift that China has generated in Central Asian realities, this paper focuses on the political and geopolitical impact of Beijing's growing influence, along with the economic implications of the Chinese presence in Central Asia. To what extent will this affect the objectives of the European Union? China is one of the EU's economic competitors in domains such as energy; it obstructs cooperation between Central Asian states and Western countries, and it encourages the authoritarian tendencies of political regimes. Yet, partnership and economic competition go hand in hand, as EU texts recognise. In addition, the EU's rationale for setting up in Central Asia is not to compete with neighbouring states, but instead to seek cooperation in accordance with the idea that a multiplicity of actors will guarantee the zone's stability and its geopolitical balance. So what joint interest might China and the EU have in Central Asia? On a certain number of questions such as security and long-term development, the EU and China share the same concerns and Beijing is seeking greater collaboration with Europe.
Topic:
Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
China, Europe, and Central Asia