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152. Alliance Reborn: An Atlantic Compact for the 21st Century
- Author:
- Hans Binnendijk, Julianne Smith, Daniel Hamilton, Charles Barry, Stephen Flanagan, and James Townsend
- Publication Date:
- 02-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Transatlantic Relations
- Abstract:
- We have an open but fleeting moment to forge a more effective Atlantic partnership. We must seize it now. European and North American allies have allowed their relations become discordant, yet the times demand vigor and unity. Courageous decisions need to be taken to breathe new life and relevance into the Atlantic partnership, which must be recast to tackle a diverse range of serious challenges at home and abroad. Reaching consensus on long term strategy should be of high priority. Leaders should go beyond providing direction to the NATO institution and take a higher plane, charting in an Atlantic Compact the future of their partnership in ways that relate the security, prosperity and freedom of their people and their nations to the world as a whole.
- Topic:
- NATO, International Cooperation, International Organization, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- United States and Europe
153. New Ideas for the London Summit: Recommendations to the G20 Leaders
- Author:
- Paola Subacchi, Robin Niblett, and Alexei Monsarrat
- Publication Date:
- 03-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Chatham House
- Abstract:
- What started last year as a growing international credit crunch and, by September, a global banking crisis has now spread into the real economy. International trade, investment and economic growth are all contracting. A drastic curtailment of credit, collapsing global demand and a loss of trade finance is having a devastating economic effect on both the developed and developing worlds, especially those economies that are heavily dependent on exports.
- Topic:
- International Relations, International Cooperation, International Organization, International Trade and Finance, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Europe and London
154. The Treaty on Friendship, Partnership and Cooperation between Italy and Libya: New Prospects for Cooperation in the Mediterranean?
- Author:
- Natalino Ronzitti
- Publication Date:
- 05-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- On August 30 2008, Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi flew to Benghazi to sign the Treaty on Friendship, Partnership and Cooperation between Italy and Libya, concluding the long negotiating process that began under previous Italian governments and was accelerated by the current administration. The Treaty was meant to put an end to the dispute between the two countries and Libya's claims relating to Italian colonialism. In greeting Colonel Muammar Gheddafi, Berlusconi expressed his regret for the colonial period in very strong terms.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Post Colonialism, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Libya, North Africa, and Italy
155. European Games Institutional Innovation: The Making of Eurojust (1996-2004)
- Author:
- Michel Mangenot
- Publication Date:
- 01-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for European Political Sociology
- Abstract:
- Eurojust is the new judiciary co-operation unit of the European Union. This article analyses the decision-making process behind its creation, explained in terms of 'institutional games'. The establishment of Eurojust illustrates the specificities of European institutional configurations and the interactions occurring in Brussels among officials, judges and ministers. Moreover, it elucidates the important role of the leadership of the General Secretariat of the Council, and the socialisation and specialisation of a group with a high level of intellectual resources, willing to participate to the 'noble' task of institutional innovation. This article defines the determining factors of intense interinstitutional competition, where the Commission and OLAF adhere to autonomous and parliamentary principles. Furthermore, it takes into account the specific work undertaken by the Presidency (or Presidencies), as well as the decisive role of the Intergovernmental Conference, which, through the means of a high level of decision-making, enables specific moves to be made in the games.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Government, International Law, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Europe
156. Come Home, NATO? The Atlantic Alliance's New Strategic Concept
- Author:
- Sten Rynning and Jens Ringsmose
- Publication Date:
- 01-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies
- Abstract:
- This DIIS Report provides an overview of the political and military issues that are likely to shape the coming discussions about NATO's new Strategic Concept. NATO's current Strategic Concept dates back to 1999 and over the last couple years an increasing number of policy-makers have suggested that it is time to take stock of the transatlantic Alliance. The exercise is significant because the Strategic Concept represents the operational view of the Washington Treaty - the basic text of NATO - and because it will bequeath a new strategic direction to the Alliance. The Report presents three arguments. One is that the Strategic Concept serves several functions: it codifies past decision and existing practices; it provides strategic direction; and it serves as an instrument of public diplomacy. The second argument is that the new Strategic Concept must balance the push and pull of two competing visions of NATO, one being 'Come home, NATO;' the other being 'Globalize, stupid.' The contest between these diverging visions has consequences for a number of issues that the Strategic Concept must address. Lastly, it is argued that although the agenda of globalization is being questioned, NATO will continue down the path of global engagement.
- Topic:
- Security, International Organization, Regional Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- United States and Europe
157. Bosnia's Incomplete Transition: Between Dayton and Europe
- Publication Date:
- 03-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- While Bosnia and Herzegovina's time as an international protectorate is ending, which is in itself most welcome, now is the wrong time to rush the transition. The state put together by the 1995 Dayton Peace Agreement after a long war will never be secure and able to take its place in the European Union (EU) until it is responsible for the consequences of its own decisions. But tensions are currently high and stability is deteriorating, as Bosniaks and Serbs play a zero-sum game to upset the Dayton settlement. Progress toward EU membership is stalled, and requirements set in 2008 for ending the protectorate have not been not met.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Civil War, Ethnic Conflict, Peace Studies, Religion, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Balkans
158. Turkey and Armenia: Opening Minds, Opening Borders
- Publication Date:
- 04-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Turkey and Armenia are close to settling a dispute that has long roiled Caucasus politics, isolated Armenia and cast a shadow over Turkey's European Union (EU) ambition. For a decade and a half, relations have been poisoned by disagreement about issues including how to address a common past and compensate for crimes, territorial disputes, distrust bred in Soviet times and Armenian occupation of Azerbaijani land. But recently, progressively intense official engagement, civil society interaction and public opinion change have transformed the relationship, bringing both sides to the brink of an historic agreement to open borders, establish diplomatic ties and begin joint work on reconciliation. They should seize this opportunity to normalise. The politicised debate whether to recognise as genocide the destruction of much of the Ottoman Armenian population and the stalemated Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh should not halt momentum. The U.S., EU, Russia and others should maintain support for reconciliation and avoid harming it with statements about history at a critical and promising time.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Diplomacy, Genocide, Regional Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, Europe, Turkey, Caucasus, Asia, Soviet Union, Armenia, and Azerbaijan
159. The Case for a Gas Transit Consortium in Ukraine: A Cost-Benefit Analysis
- Author:
- Michael Emerson and Elena Gnedina
- Publication Date:
- 01-2009
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies
- Abstract:
- The 2009 gas dispute between Ukraine and Russia has led to a severe drop in Russian gas supplies to some EU member states. The dispute has once again shown that the status quo is defective and unsustainable as a policy. This Policy Brief argues that – beyond ad hoc temporary measures, such as the monitoring by EU experts agreed on January 12th and the 2009-10 price agreement apparently reached on January 18th – the problem needs a comprehensive and robust solution. This would be a gas transit consortium, bringing all major stakeholders – Gazprom, Naftohaz, one or a few European energy companies, and the international financial institutions – to jointly manage the trans-Ukrainian trunk pipeline. The consortium agreement would be underwritten politic ally and legally by a tripartite treaty to be ratified by the EU, Russia and Ukraine. The consortium should be bound by European standards of transparency, corporate governance and accounting in order to tackle the major problem – the lack of trust – in the EU- Ukraine-Russia energy triangle.
- Topic:
- Economics, Energy Policy, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Ukraine
160. Eurozone Unity Under Threat?
- Publication Date:
- 03-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Oxford Economics
- Abstract:
- Ten years after the introduction of the euro, the onset of deep recession in the Eurozone has triggered concern that the single currency might impose intolerable strains upon some members. With some countries hit hard by the impact of the credit crunch, there are mounting concerns about a possible debt default by one or more member states, which in turn might threaten the euro and even the existence of the Eurozone. With the Eurozone economy forecast to contract by 3.1% this year, unemployment is starting to climb steeply and fiscal deficits are soaring. This has raised concerns about deteriorating public finances in a number of countries, leading to sharply wider spreads on government bonds and credit rating downgrades for Greece, Spain and Portugal, with Ireland maybe facing a similar fate soon. And repercussions from the growing economic crisis in Central and Eastern Europe are adding to the problem, with Austria particularly exposed. Rising bond spreads were always intended to be the mechanism that would restrain public spending by more profligate Eurozone countries. But the question now is whether the weaker economies can withstand the strains that a lengthy period of recession will impose and, at the same time, adopt credible medium-term spending plans to ward off the worst of the downturn and retain market confidence. With fiscal deficits already rising as a result of bank bailouts, fiscal packages and recession will push budget deficits far above the 3% of GDP target – Ireland, facing a deficit of 12% of GDP, and Spain will be worst hit. And with rising deficits and higher bond spreads pushing up the cost of debt, countries face a sharp rise in their level of indebtedness, with Greece and Italy seeing debt/GDP ratios around 100%. This deterioration could lead to a further downward spiral if the recession is prolonged and will be a test of countries' euro commitment, which has remained strong thus far despite rising social tensions in some countries. At this stage, the problems remain manageable and the risk of default or of countries leaving the euro is still very low. Bond spreads are still much lower than during much of the 1990s, when countries were striving to qualify for euro membership, and the currency risks attached to leaving the euro would be substantial. Moreover, EU countries that have been exposed to considerable currency strain over the past year are anxious to join the Eurozone as soon as possible, to take advantage of the benefits of a stable currency. While some smaller countries may experience financial difficulties, it seems inevitable that the larger Eurozone members would step in to stabilise the situation – failure to do so would risk contagion spreading to other countries, which in turn would cause even deeper problems for the euro. More policy action also seems likely to counter this threat – although the German government will probably remain reluctant to countenance the scale of expansionary fiscal policy really needed at this time. Current policies inevitably mean a long hard slog back towards fiscal rectitude in the years ahead, with monetary policy also tightening and growth slower than previously expected. Fiscal federalism may also have to be on the agenda. All this will undoubtedly lead to ongoing strains within the Eurozone. And any measures by governments that appear to be protectionist – such as the support for the French car industry – will only fuel these tensions.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Germany