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2. The Trade Effects of the Economic Partnership Agreements between the European Union and the African, Caribbean and Pacific Group of States: Early Empirical Insights from Panel Data
- Author:
- Frederik Stender, Axel Berger, Clara Brandi, and Jakob Schwab
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- German Development Institute (DIE)
- Abstract:
- This study provides early ex-post empirical evidence on the effects of provisionally applied Economic Partnership Agreements (EPAs) on two-way trade flows between the European Union (EU) and the African, Caribbean and Pacific Group of States (ACP). Employing the gravity model of trade, we do not find a general EPA effect on total exports from ACP countries to the EU nor on total exports from the EU to ACP countries. We do, however, find heterogeneous effects when focusing on specific agreements and economic sectors. While the agreement between the EU and the Caribbean Forum (CARIFORUM), which concluded several years ahead of the other EPAs in 2008, if anything, reduced imports from the EU overall, the provisional application of the other EPAs seems to have at least partly led to increased imports from the EU to some partner countries. More specifically, the estimation results suggest an increase in the total imports from the EU only in the Southern Africa Development Community (SADC) EPA partner countries. On the sectoral level, by comparison, we find increases in the EU’s agricultural exports to SADC, Eastern and Southern Africa (ESA) and the Pacific. Lastly, in the area of manufactures trade, we find decreases of exports of the ESA and SADC countries to the EU, but increases in imports from the EU into SADC countries. While this early assessment of the EPA effects merits attention given the importance of monitoring future implications of these agreements, it is still too early for a final verdict on the EPAs’ effects and future research is needed to investigate the mid- and long-term consequences of these agreements.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Development, International Cooperation, Regional Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, Manufacturing, and Trade
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Europe, South Africa, Caribbean, Asia-Pacific, and European Union
3. Between God and the Sugar Dates: Lessons for a "Geopolitical" EU from the US–Iran Crisis
- Author:
- Tommaso Emiliani
- Publication Date:
- 04-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- The killing of top Iranian General Qasem Soleimani by a US drone strike on 3 January 2020, followed by the Iranian retaliation on US military bases in Iraq, left many Europeans wondering how – if at all – the European Union can foster de-escalation in the Middle East. The EU is presently stuck between a deepening strategic rift with its US ally and its inability to advance its independent interests and policies vis-à-vis Iran. It is now clear that Europe cannot protect its relations with Washington while also salvaging the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), or Iranian nuclear deal. Borrowing from an old Persian proverb, Europe cannot have both God and the sugar dates.
- Topic:
- Sanctions, Military Affairs, Trade, Transatlantic Relations, and Coronavirus
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Iran, Middle East, United States of America, European Union, and Gulf Nations
4. Court of Justice of the EU Ruling on Products from Territories Occupied by Israel
- Author:
- Michał Wojnarowicz and Szymon Zaręba
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- On 12 November 2019, the Court of Justice of the EU (CJEU) issued a judgment on products from Jewish settlements in the Israeli-occupied West Bank and Golan Heights. It states that EU members are required to ensure that the origin is properly marked. The implementation of this requirement may cause disputes in the EU because of differences in Member States’ policies towards Israel. Tensions in relations with the U.S. are also possible, especially in the context of that country’s recent change in policy favouring the Israeli position on settlements. Hence, it is advisable for the EU to develop a uniform policy regarding imports and labelling of products from all occupied territories.
- Topic:
- International Law, Territorial Disputes, European Union, Occupation, Judiciary, and Trade
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, North America, United States of America, West Bank, and Golan Heights
5. The Impact of Sanctions Imposed by the European Union against Iran on their Bilateral Trade: General versus Targeted Sanctions
- Author:
- Mahdi Ghodsi and Hüseyin Karamelikli
- Publication Date:
- 05-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
- Abstract:
- Economic sanctions are intensively used by international institutions to enforce political objectives. Since 2006 the EU has been implementing general sanctions against the whole economy of Iran, affecting their trade relations. Since 2007, and following the imposition of sanctions by the UN Security Council, the EU has also implemented smart sanctions targeting Iranian entities and natural persons associated with its military activities. In a non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL), this paper investigates the impact of general and targeted EU sanctions against Iran on quarterly bilateral trade values between the 19 members of the euro area (EA19) and Iran between the first quarter of 1999 and the fourth quarter of 2018. The results indicate that general sanctions have strongly hampered trade flows between the two trading partners. The impact of general sanctions on the total imports of the EA19 from Iran is more than four times stronger than on the total exports of the EA19 to Iran. Moreover, the EU’s general sanctions have hampered trade in almost all sectors, except for the primary sectors. Furthermore, our study finds that the impact of smart sanctions targeting Iranian entities and natural persons is much smaller than the impact of general sanctions on total trade values and the trade values of many sectors. Smart sanctions affect the exports of most sectors from the EA19 to Iran, while they are statistically insignificant for the imports of many sectors from Iran. Thus, this paper provides evidence on the motivations behind smart sanctions, which target specific individuals and entities rather than the whole economy, unlike general sanctions, which have a negative impact on ordinary people.
- Topic:
- United Nations, Sanctions, Trade, and Trade Policy
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Iran, United Nations, and European Union
6. New Productivity Drivers: Revisiting the Role of Digital Capital, FDI and Integration at Aggregate and Sectoral Levels
- Author:
- Amat Adarov and Robert Stehrer
- Publication Date:
- 04-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
- Abstract:
- The paper studies the drivers of productivity at country and sectoral levels over the period 2000-2017 with the focus on the impact of capital accumulation and structure. The analysis confirms an especially important role of ICT and intangible digital capital for productivity growth, particularly in the manufacturing sectors. While backward global value chain participation and EU integration are also found to be instrumental for accelerating productivity growth, the impact of inward foreign direct investment is not robustly detected when the data is purged from the effects of special purpose entities and outlier countries.
- Topic:
- Economics, Foreign Direct Investment, European Union, Digital Economy, Capital Flows, and Trade
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Global Focus
7. How Can Global Governance Be Fixed in an Age of Upheaval?
- Author:
- Thierry de Montbrial, Robin Niblett, Ed Feulner, and Feng Zhu
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
- Abstract:
- Ifri’s Executive Chairman Thierry de Montbrial spoke at the 20th World Knowledge Forum in Seoul on September 25, 2019 with Robin Niblett, Chatham House's director, Ed Feulner, The Heritage Foundation's Founder and Former President and Feng Zhu, Director of the Institute of International Studies at Nanjing University about the major governance issues of our time. The global geopolitical situation is caught in a maelstrom. The conflict between the United States and China is getting worse and subsequent negative effects are rising. In Europe, Brexit is making the continent more divisive than harmonious. The instability in Middle East is not solved. In addition, the North Korea’s nuclear weapons are an endless source of problem that defies a quick solution, which made the politics surrounding the Korean Peninsula more complex. The problem is that the currently weak global governance may lead the global political landscape into a serious crisis. To give an answer to these problems, heads of top think tanks share their prospect and the future of the global governance, giving a guideline for each country to listen for a better direction.
- Topic:
- Governance, Geopolitics, Think Tanks, and Trade
- Political Geography:
- China, Europe, Middle East, North Korea, Global Focus, and United States of America
8. The EU’s Addiction to False Dilemmas in the Mediterranean
- Author:
- Haizam Amirah-Fernandez
- Publication Date:
- 07-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
- Abstract:
- There is something deeply and comprehensively flawed in the EU’s relations with its Mediterranean neighbourhood. After more than 50 years of European cooperation, agreements, declarations and plans with the southern Mediterranean and the Arab countries, only one new democratic state (Tunisia) has emerged. A benevolent observer would say this democratisation process was not initiated as a result of the EU’s resolute support for a population demanding freedom from an authoritarian regime. A blunter observer, however, would argue that Tunisians managed to topple their former autocrat despite the support he received from certain European quarters until the very last minute. So much for decades of European pro-democracy rhetoric.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Democratization, European Union, Crisis Management, and Trade
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Mediterranean
9. Initiating Tibet and English East India Company’s Ties in the 18th Century: The Warren Hastings Years
- Author:
- Monika Chansoria
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Japan Institute Of International Affairs (JIIA)
- Abstract:
- In the last quarter of the 18th century, Warren Hastings, the first de facto Governor General of India from 1774 to 1785 initiated and set up the English East India Company’s relations with Tibet. The first contact in this reference was initiated by the Tibetans, when, upon hearing the news of the defeat of Bhutan’s King Desi Shidariva by the British forces in the battle for Cooch Behar (1772-1774), the Panchen Lama, Palden Yeshe, wrote a historic letter of mediation addressed to the Governor General. Hastings seized the opportunity, and, in his response proposed a general treaty of amity and peace between Bengal and Tibet.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, International Affairs, History, and Trade
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Asia, England, and Tibet
10. Resisting deglobalisation: the case of Europe
- Author:
- Zsolt Darvas
- Publication Date:
- 02-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Bruegel
- Abstract:
- Global trade and finance data indicates that the pre-2008 pace of economic globalisation has stalled or even reversed. The European Union has defied this trend, with trade flows and financial claims continuing to grow after the recovery from the 2008 global economic and financial crisis. Immigration, including intra-EU mobility, has also continued to increase.
- Topic:
- Globalization, Immigration, European Union, Finance, Economic growth, Global Financial Crisis, and Trade
- Political Geography:
- Europe