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21. Study and Reports on the VAT Gap in the EU-28 Member States: 2018 Final Report

Author:
Adam Śmietanka, Alejandro Esteller Moré, Grzegorz Poniatowski, José María Durán-Cabré, and Mikhail Bonch-Osmolovsky
Publication Date:
10-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
In this Report, the Authors present the new Value Added Tax (VAT) Gap estimates for 2016, as well as updated estimates for 2012-2016. In addition to the analysis of the Compliance Gap, this Report examines the Policy Gap in 2016 as well as the contribution that reduced rates and exemptions made to the theoretical VAT revenue losses. Moreover, the Report contains an econometric analysis of VAT Gap determinants, which is a novelty introduced from this year’s Study. In 2016, most European Union (EU) Member States (MS) saw positive tailwinds with a combined real GDP growth of 2.0 percent. As a result of a growing base and increasing VAT compliance, VAT revenue increased in all MS with three exceptions. Most pronounced is the case of Romania, where VAT revenue decreased in response to reduction of the standard rate by four percentage points. In nominal terms, in 2016, the VAT Gap in EU-28 MS fell below EUR 150 billion and amounted to EUR 147.1 billion. In relative terms, the VAT Gap share of the VAT total tax liability (VTTL) dropped to 12.3 percent from 13.2 percent in 2015, and is the lowest value in the analysed period of 2012-2016. Denoted at the share of GDP, the VAT Gap in 2016 amounted to 0.99% compared to 1.05% in 2015. Of the EU-28, the VAT Gap share decreased in 22 countries and increased in six—namely, Romania, Finland, the UK, Ireland, Estonia, and France. The biggest declines in the VAT Gap—of over five percentage points—occurred in Bulgaria, Latvia, Cyprus, and the Netherlands. The smallest Gaps were observed in Luxembourg (0.85 percent), Sweden (1.08 percent), and Croatia (1.15 percent). The largest Gaps were registered in Romania (35.88 percent), Greece (29.22 percent), and Italy (25.90 percent). Overall, half of EU-28 MS recorded a Gap below 9.9 percent. The Policy Gaps and its components remained stable. The average Policy Gap level was 44.8 percent, out of which 9.95 percentage points are due to the application of various reduced and super-reduced rates (the Rate Gap). Countries with the most flat levels of rates in the EU, according to the Rate Gap, are Denmark (0.93 percent) and Estonia (2.97 percent). The Exemption Gap, or the average share of Ideal Revenue lost due to various exemptions, is, on average, 35 percent in the EU, whereas the Actionable Policy Gap—a combination of the Rate Gap and the Actionable Exemption Gap—is, on average, 16.5 percent of the Notional Ideal Revenue. The econometric analysis can be considered a successful first attempt at inferring the impact of various determinants. Firstly, it can be observed that the productive structure of the economy exerts an impact on the VAT Gap. The share of retailers has the strongest impact on the VAT Gap; however, telecommunications, industry, and art also have a positive impact. Secondly, liquidity constraints and the productive structure of the economy also play a role in determining VAT compliance. The most interesting results have to do with the impact of the variables under the direct control of the tax administration. We show that the impact of the size of the tax administration and the VAT Gap is concave. On the contrary, in the case of IT expenditure, the impact is convex, albeit small, until productivity vanishes when IT expenditure is about 9.8 percent of the total expenditure of the tax administration.
Topic:
Financial Crimes, Tax Systems, Fiscal Policy, and VAT
Political Geography:
Europe, Poland, and European Union

22. Personal Income Tax Policy Choices of Spanish Autonomous Communities in 2016: A Comparison with Canada of the Rate Structure

Author:
François Vallancourt, Jesús Ruiz-Huerta, and Violeta Ruiz Almendral
Publication Date:
01-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Fundación Alternativas
Abstract:
Since 2009 Autonomous Communities have started to set their own Personal Income Tax rates for the first time. This is both the result of the 2009 rule change and the difficulties to get other public revenues during the years of the Great Recession. We will examine what the Autonomous Communitie s explicit choices have been and see how they compare to what Canadian Provinces have done. Before 2000, these provinces other than Québec were required to use a surtax approach that saw provinces collect personal income tax as a% of federal taxes (tax on tax) using the same number of brackets, boundaries of brackets and progressivity structure. Since 2000 they can and have chosen to use a tax on income approach as noted above. Thus they must make similar choices to those of Autonomous Communities for their Personal Income Tax since 2000.
Topic:
Economics, Global Recession, Tax Systems, and Recovery
Political Geography:
Europe, Canada, Spain, North America, and Western Europe

23. Blacklist or Whitewash? What a Real EU Blacklist of Tax Havens Should Look Like

Author:
Aurore Chardonnet and Johan Langerock
Publication Date:
11-2017
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
Tax havens deprive countries of hundreds of billions of dollars, fuelling inequality and poverty. The EU will soon release a blacklist of tax havens operating outside the EU, and issue penalties for those appearing on it. However, power politics means that several significant tax havens could be missing from the list. This report shows what a robust blacklist of tax havens would look like if the EU were to objectively apply its own criteria and not bow to political pressure. It also reveals four EU countries that would be blacklisted if the EU were to apply its own criteria to member states. While the EU’s criteria are not perfect and will not capture all tax havens, they are a step in the right direction. An objective blacklist, combined with powerful countermeasures, could go a long way towards ending the era of tax havens.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation, European Union, Tax Systems, and Banking
Political Geography:
Europe

24. Mobilising Domestic Resources to Help Mali’s Poorest Populations: The role of French Development Aid

Author:
Michael Siegel
Publication Date:
12-2017
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
Development cooperation has a major role to play in supporting fragile states to mobilize their own resources in order to fund basic social services. In Mali, French aid aims to build the technical capacity of Malian administrations to collect tax by fighting against fraud and tax evasion. However, collecting more domestic resources alone will not be sufficient to reduce poverty. France must support watch-dog organizations to ensure greater transparency and accountability on the use of these resources for the benefit of the poorest.
Topic:
Development, Inequality, Fragile States, Tax Systems, and Sustainability
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, France, and Mali

25. The Economic Impact of the University of the West of England

Author:
Andy Logan and Alice Gambarin
Publication Date:
04-2017
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
In total, UWE Bristol is estimated to have supported 8,280 jobs in the West of England, or one in every 79 people in employment in the area. Some 59 percent was as a result of the University’s expenditure, with the remainder of jobs stimulated by additional students’ and their visitors’ spending. The University contributed £400.1 million in gross value added to the West of England economy. This is equivalent to 1.3 percent of the local economy. As a result of this activity, in 2014/15, the University, its employees, additional students, and their visitors supported a £88.7million tax contribution to the Exchequer. The University had a major impact on businesses and the local economy through its role in the supply of graduate talent. A significant proportion of the thousands of graduates from the University annually are employed within the city-region, including many of those attracted to study at UWE Bristol from elsewhere.
Topic:
Economics, Education, Tax Systems, Local, Higher Education, and Public Service
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

26. Study and Reports on the VAT Gap in the EU-28 Member States: 2017 Final Report

Author:
Grzegorz Poniatowski, Mikhail Bonch-Osmolovsky, and Misha V. Belkindas
Publication Date:
10-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
CASE prepared a new study for the European Commission on the VAT Gap in the European Union in 2015. The figures offer an important snapshot of the problems of collecting VAT in the EU and what needs to be done to improve revenues and fight tax fraud. During 2015, the overall VAT that should have been collected in EU Member States grew by about 4.2 %, while collected VAT revenues rose by 5.8 %. As a result, the overall VAT Gap in the EU Member States decreased by about €8.7 billion in absolute terms, down to €151.5 billion. As a percentage, the overall VAT Gap decreased by 2.1 % to 12.7 %. In 2015, the highest VAT Gap was recorded in Romania with a figure of 37.18 %. In absolute terms, the highest VAT Gap of €35 billion was in Italy. Overall, the VAT Gap decreased in most Member States, with the largest improvements noted in Malta, Romania and Spain. The VAT Gap measured in this study includes for the first time revenues emerging from new VAT rules for cross-border sales of e-services which came into force on 1 January 2015, following a Commission proposal. CASE's team was led by Grzegorz Poniatowski, Director of Fiscal Policy Studies, and composed of Mikhail Bonch-Osmolovskiy and Misha Belkindas.
Topic:
European Union, Tax Systems, Fiscal Policy, and VAT
Political Geography:
Europe, Poland, and European Union

27. Mutual Learning for Reducing Tax Gaps in V4 Countries and Ukraine Peer Country Paper: Poland

Author:
Iakov Frizis, Krzysztof Głowacki, and Katarzyna Mirecka
Publication Date:
08-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
Tax administration has been improving in Poland in recent years. The country moved from a ranking of 128 to a ranking of 47 in the Paying Taxes indicator of the World Bank’s Doing Business report between its 2012 and 2017 editions. However, compliance with taxes still requires 271 man hours, compared to the European Union (EU) & European Free Trade Association (EFTA) average of 173 man-hours and to the top Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) performer Estonia’s 81 man-hours. Polish tax legislation has been described as complex by some observers and not overly complex by other observers, while many emphasise that it is improving at a good pace. The paper summarizes knowledge on tax gaps in Poland with respect to PIT, CIT, VAT, and excise. An introduction to the Polish tax system is given, trends in tax collectability and estimates of the tax gaps are discussed, and methods of combating tax evasion and avoidance are reviewed. The paper has been written as part of the project “Mutual Learning for Reducing Tax Gaps in V4 Countries and Ukraine” co-financed by the Visegrad Fund in the years 2016-2017.
Topic:
Financial Crimes, Tax Systems, Free Trade, Fiscal Policy, and VAT
Political Geography:
Europe, Ukraine, Poland, and European Union

28. Mutual Learning for Reducing Tax Gaps in V4 Countries and Ukraine Final Report

Author:
Iakov Frizis and Krzysztof Głowacki
Publication Date:
08-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
ax gaps, or the differences between tax amounts that are due by the taxpayers and the amounts that are actually collected by the state, remain a challenge for many European Union (EU) Member States, including for the V4 countries. Tax gaps also present a formidable challenge for Ukraine, which is currently reforming many aspects of its financial and legal systems. To help increase awareness about tax compliance and exchange knowledge on the state-of-the-art methods used to combat tax gaps, the project Mutual Learning for Reducing Tax Gaps in V4 Countries and Ukraine has been implemented. The paper is a summary of the exchange of knowledge and experience that took place in the course of the project co-financed by the Visegrad Fund in the years 2016–2017.
Topic:
Economics, Tax Systems, Fiscal Policy, and VAT
Political Geography:
Europe, Ukraine, Poland, and European Union

29. Social harmonization and labor market performance in Europe

Author:
Katarzyna Mirecka and Izabela Styczynska
Publication Date:
04-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
The paper aims to assess the impact of selected elements of social harmonization on labor market performance in the European Union among two groups of workers—the total working population and the elderly. The aim is to examine whether upward changes in labor taxes affect employment, unemployment, and inactivity rates in the European Union. The descriptive empirical evidence shows that the level of labor taxation varies significantly across European countries and the introduced changes might affect national markets differently. The Arellano-Bond dynamic panel data regression shows that an increase in the tax wedge, as an element of a social harmonization process, has a very weak impact on labor market performance in the European Union. The impact is statistically significant and negative only for the elderly (i.e. the population aged 50+). Empirical analysis suggests that upward social convergence might negatively affect the employment of the most disfavored groups in the labor market, such as the elderly. It suggests that social harmonization focused on reducing the tax wedge would have favorable effects on labor market performance, especially among the most disadvantaged groups. This report was prepared within a research project entitled “SocialBoost – effective measures of social harmonization as a boost for employability in times of demographic changes”, which received funding under the Nordic Council of Ministers’ Programme for NGOs in the Baltic Sea Region.
Topic:
Demographics, Labor Issues, Social Policy, Tax Systems, and Social Security
Political Geography:
Europe and European Union

30. More for less: What tax system for Poland?

Author:
Stanisław Gomułka, Jarosław Neneman, and Michał Myck
Publication Date:
10-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
What are the challenges facing Poland’s economy and tax system over the next 20 years? What does the optimal tax system mean? Do we have high taxes in Poland? The goal of the publication is to initiate a discussion on the subject of a tax system for Poland, presenting a framework within which the current system should be analyzed and conclusions drawn about what changes are needed over the longer term. Professor Stanisław Gomułka, chief economist of the Business Centre Club, analyzes the challenges facing Poland’s economy and tax system over the next 20 years. Jarosław Neneman, an assistant professor at Łazarski University, presents the basic parameters for a planned academic research project on how to use the Polish tax system effectively. Michał Myck, director and board member of CenEA (the Center for Economic Analysis) describes the optimal characteristics of a tax system according to theory and the results of scholarly research, which of course also relates to the Polish tax system.
Topic:
Economics, Finance, Tax Systems, and Fiscal Policy
Political Geography:
Europe, Poland, and European Union