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101. Explaining Ukraine’s recovery and reconstruction: what, how and when?

Author:
Tinatin Akhvlediani
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has resulted in colossal human loss. According to the World Bank, this has already in 2023 amounted to 26 000 civilian casualties, the displacement of around 3.7 million people internally within Ukraine and around 5.9 million externally in Europe and beyond. The war has pushed 7.1 million people into poverty and reversed 15 years of economic development. This is reflected in the drastic increase in inequality, particularly among women, children, people with disabilities and elderly. This CEPS Explainer aims to review what is at stake, how Ukraine’s reconstruction has been addressed thus far, and what conditions and timelines are necessary for scaling up efforts. It looks at the immediate and long-term needs for Ukraine’s recovery and reconstruction, examines the existing framework for coordinating and implementing rebuilding efforts, describes potential funding sources and analyses the financial support already committed for Ukraine’s reconstruction. Finally, it reviews Ukraine’s ability to effectively absorb reconstruction funds and outlines the basic conditions required for scaling up reconstruction.
Topic:
Reconstruction, Recovery, Economic Development, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

102. The Impact of Ukraine’s Accession on the EU’s Economy

Author:
Tinatin Akhvlediani and Veronika Movchan
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
The groundwork for Ukraine’s integration into the EU’s single market was laid by the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement (AA). A key component of the AA, the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA), paved the way for Ukraine’s gradual integration into the EU’s single market. Building on the DCFTA, Ukraine’s integration into the EU’s economy has significantly advanced since February 2022. In response to the invasion, the EU swiftly and temporarily but completely liberalised its market for Ukrainian goods through Autonomous Trade Measures (ATMs) and triggered the Temporary Protection Directive that has enabled over 4 million Ukrainian refugees to reside and work in the EU. With a continued swift trajectory, Ukraine’s integration is set to be much more comprehensive by the (yet unknown) time of accession. As this study outlines, the prospect of Ukraine’s accession to the EU brings some challenges but holds immense potential for mutual economic benefit. Free movement of goods. Full access under the ATM has not caused drastic changes in the EU’s imports or in the functioning of the single market in general. Yet, to avoid disruptions in the future, the accession treaty could include transition periods for full market access for Ukrainian goods in those EU Member States that may be vulnerable to a sharp increase in imports. Full trade liberalisation in services is expected to have more trade-easing effects, particularly for the EU, as it holds most of the reservations. Ukraine’s main EU partners in services trade are Germany and Poland, but services trade with Ukraine’s other major partners, including Estonia, has been steadily increasing since the implementation of the EU-Ukraine DCFTA. Thus, trade absorption capacity should be sustainable. Free movement of capital. Given the underdevelopment of Ukraine’s financial sector and capital markets, legislative and policy alignment should serve as a solid foundation for financial deepening in the country. Eased movement of capital will make it significantly easier to conduct business and trade and commercial and non-commercial payments between Ukraine and the EU. Free movement of workers. As long as Ukrainian workers fit the labour demands of the receiving EU countries, they could fill the gap in the labour supply and complement rather than replace local workers. An enlarged EU as a global supplier. Ukraine could strengthen the EU’s position in critical materials and key agricultural products, as well as contribute to the EU technologically with its emerging ICT sector and increasing skills and know-how in IT and computer services. Ukraine’s reconstruction and sustainable recovery is a significant challenge that requires substantial financial support. Yet, by addressing these considerations with foresight and diligence, Ukraine’s accession to the EU could not only elevate Ukraine’s standing but could also strengthen the EU’s position on the global stage.
Topic:
Reconstruction, European Union, Economy, Regional Integration, Trade, Recovery, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

103. The Berlin Pulse 2024/2025 (full issue)

Author:
Hanno Pevkur, Stephanie Zonszein, Majed Al-Ansari, Halyna Yanchenko, and Boris Pistorius
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Körber-Stiftung
Abstract:
Welcome to the eight’s edition of The Berlin Pulse! As every year, we compare international expectations of Germany with public opinion in Germany. But this year’s edition is special, as it comes off the press with one part of our representative survey conducted right after the polls have closed in the United States and the German coalition collapsed. Thanks to our editors Julia Ganter and Jonathan Lehrer, this issue underlines that Germany must decide what image it wants to project and what international expectations it wants to meet. Bangladeshi analyst Shafqat Munir and Russian opposition politician Andrei Pivovarov want Germany to live up to its moral aspirations and support the revival of democratic values in their countries. Israeli journalist Mairav Zonszein argues that precisely Germany’s reputation as a defender of democratic norms complicates its arms support to Israel, calling on Berlin to ensure its weapons are not used in human rights violations. Meanwhile, Ukrainian politican Halyna Yanchenko urges Germany to supply more arms to help end Russia’s illegal war of aggression. These expectations illustrate that Germany’s international standing as a partner in upholding international law, human rights and democracy is currently at stake. Berlin faces a complex balancing act, striving to avoid perceptions of selectively applying international law. Estonia’s Defence Minister Hanno Pevkur argues that half-hearted actions will not suffice – or as he puts it, ʻDo we want Ukraine to survive, or do we want it to win?ʼ The German population has a strong opinion on many of these issues. While 57 per cent of German respondents still want Berlin to support Ukraine militarily only 25 per cent want military support for Israel. Despite these dilemmas, it is encouraging that 46 per cent of German respondents want their country to be more engaged on international crises. It is the highest level since we started surveying this in 2017 and it shows that, after three years of war in Ukraine and a year of war in the Middle East, Germans want change and want to see Germany driving change. Thanks to our partner, the Pew Research Center, we know that Germans and Americans have trusted each other to make a change in international politics over the past four years. But our new figures, conducted after the US election, show that this partnership may be threatened: 79 per cent of Germans think President Donald Trump will damage transatlantic relations. But only 35 per cent of Germans think that Germany should step in to lead the West. It is time to decide, Germany. What kind of international player do we want to be, in which areas do we want to go all in? The following pages can help us make difficult decisions in difficult times.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, Human Rights, Taliban, Polls, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Russia, Europe, Ukraine, India, Germany, and United States of America

104. WEER 2023 | Ukraine at War: Why did it happen, when will it end? (Full Issue)

Author:
Henryk Litwin, Yevgeniya Gaber, Mykola Riabchuk, Ola Hnatiuk, and Aliaksei Kazharski
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Warsaw East European Review (WEER)
Institution:
Centre for East European Studies, University of Warsaw
Abstract:
From June 28th to June 30th, 2023, the nineteenth Warsaw East European Conference “Ukraine at War” took place. It was attended by a diverse group of scholars from Belarus, Canada, Great Britain, Germany, Lithuania, Poland, the United Kingdom, Ukraine, the United States, Finland, and Estonia. The conference opened with an inaugural lecture titled “Why a Ukrainian Victory Matters?” delivered by Professor Marius Janukonis, Director of the Strategic Management and Analysis Department at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Lithuania. The closing presentation, titled “Russia’s War on Ukraine: Where Are We Now and What Next?”, was prepared by Professor Yevgeniya Gaber from Ukraine, representing the Atlantic Council in Turkey. The highlight of the conference was three round table discussions. On the first day, Professor David Sacko moderated a discussion on “Ukraine at War. Security in the Region.” On the second day, there was an exchange of views on “Rebuilding Ukraine. Key Challenges for the War and Post-War Period,” led by Dr. Ernest Wyciszkiewicz. Finally, on the closing day of WEEC, Professor Mykola Riabchuk chaired a round table titled “The Toxic Spell of ‘Imperial Knowledge’ and Challenges of Decolonization.” Throughout the event, there were 13 panel discussions during which 41 papers were presented. The titles of the panels reflect the breadth of thematic discussions during the conference, listed in the order they occurred: 1. Around Ukraine. Post-Soviet Space Before and During the War 2. Challenges and Diagnoses of the Future 3. Consequences of the War 4. Public Diplomacy 5. Russia towards the War 6. Ukraine – Sources of Resistance 7. Ukraine and Security Problems in the Continental Dimension 8. Ukraine in the Eyes of Russia. Ukraine in the Eyes of Europe 9. War Migrants 10. Belarusian Memory Policy. Report on “European Network for Belarus” project 11. Migration from Post-Soviet countries in Poland: trends, challenges, and prospects 12. War Narratives in the Media. Unfortunately, only a portion of the conference participants submitted their article texts to the organizers based on their presentations. Therefore, only partial materials from WEEC 2023 are published here. Readers will find the concluding lecture by Prof. Yevgeniya Gaber and a report on the round table discussions “The Toxic Spell of ‘Imperial Knowledge’ and Challenges of Decolonization,” comprising texts from the participants, containing the main theses of their presentations. Additionally, 10 articles from panel participants are included. While this compilation may not provide a comprehensive account of the conference, it serves as evidence of its thematic diversity and provides a glimpse into this significant event for Eastern European studies.
Topic:
History, Geopolitics, Colonialism, Ideology, Decolonization, Totalitarianism, Vladimir Putin, Armed Conflict, Identity, Soviet Union, Public Diplomacy, Forced Migration, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, Middle East, and Eastern Europe

105. Ukraine: How to Hold the Line

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The gruelling war in Ukraine continues, with Russian forces creeping forward amid fierce fighting. To stop Russia’s immediate momentum and withstand its assault, Kyiv and its backers will need to move quickly to fix problems that have hindered the Ukrainian effort to date.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Armed Conflict, Military Aid, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

106. A Fraught Path Forward for Ukraine’s Liberated Territories

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Even as Ukraine continues to resist Russia’s onslaught, it faces the challenge of reintegrating lands its army freed from Russian occupation in 2022. With aid from donors, there is much Kyiv can do to help make these areas peaceful and productive once more.
Topic:
Humanitarian Aid, Occupation, Donors, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

107. Desinformación y censura en conflictos internacionales

Author:
Vicente Palacio
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Fundación Alternativas
Abstract:
El fenómeno de la desinformación no se limita al ámbito de las redes sociales; no es patrimonio únicamente de los regímenes autoritarios y populistas; y no afecta únicamente a la limpieza de los procesos electorales. Si ponemos el foco en el análisis de la información en los conflictos internacionales, debemos tener en cuenta que la desinformación es un fenómeno con varias ramificaciones. El punto de partida de este documento de trabajo es la constatación de que la desinformación, la propaganda y la censura en los conflictos armados representan una amenaza vital para nuestras democracias. Ambas atentan contra el derecho de la ciudadanía a obtener una información veraz, que es la base de las democracias liberales. Para España y para la Unión Europea, que están enfrentando dos grandes conflictos en Ucrania y en Oriente Medio, una información veraz y a tiempo debería ser la base de una democracia sana y también de una política exterior que rinda cuentas a los ciudadanos. Este documento tiene un triple objetivo. Primero, realizar un balance crítico de las respuestas legislativas dadas a nivel europeo frente a la desinformación. Segundo, hacer un repaso de los aspectos más relevantes en ambos conflictos de Ucrania y Gaza. Y tercero, lanzar reflexiones y algunas propuestas para poder combatir mejor la desinformación, la propaganda o la censura en la medida de lo posible, siendo conscientes de que en esa vía podremos alcanzar éxitos parciales, aunque significativ
Topic:
Disinformation, Armed Conflict, Censorship, Russia-Ukraine War, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:
Europe, Ukraine, Middle East, and Gaza

108. El futuro de la OTAN en su 75 aniversario

Author:
Gustavo Palomares
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Fundación Alternativas
Abstract:
El 75 aniversario de la OTAN coincide con su mayor transformación a consecuencia del momento que atraviesa Europa ante el conflicto de Ucrania, los nuevos riesgos y amenazas, o las próximas elecciones en EEUU. El nuevo concepto estratégico aprobado en la Cumbre de Madrid en 2022 supone una ampliación de objetivos y escenarios, que se extienden a Oriente Medio, Mediterráneo, Sahel o el Sur Global. La Fundación Alternativas y la Secretaría General de Política de Defensa del Ministerio de Defensa de España presentaron el informe “El futuro de la OTAN en su 75 aniversario. Guerra en Europa y escenario internacional en transformación”. Este documento pone de manifiesto la necesidad de reaccionar a la agresión rusa en Ucrania fortaleciendo los mecanismos de coordinación e inter-operabilidad entre la Alianza y los socios de la UE desde una perspectiva de complementariedad.
Topic:
Security, NATO, Geopolitics, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe and United States of America

109. Dirty Warfare? The Application of International Law to Attacks on Nuclear Power Plants in the Conduct of Hostilities

Author:
Julia Vassileva
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine poses multiple threats to international security, with nuclear safety and nuclear weapons returning to the forefront of global politics. Alongside verbal threats of using tactical nuclear weapons, Russia’s invasion plans have included attacks on nuclear power plants (NPPs), such as the shelling of the Zaporizhzhia complex in Ukraine. These actions raise critical questions about the application of international law to military operations involving NPPs and liability for resulting nuclear damage. This paper examines the scope of international law in such scenarios and concludes with implications from the perspective of strategic studies and NATO nuclear policy.
Topic:
International Law, Weapons of Mass Destruction, International Security, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

110. US-Germany Missile Agreement: Deterrence or Escalation?

Author:
Polina Sinovets
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
This October was marked by a statement by the Head of the German Foreign Service Intelligence, Bruno Kahl, who claimed that by the end of this decade at the latest, Russian troops could “carry out an attack” against NATO.[1] The defence chief could hardly be accused of hyperbole. His comments took place at the time of Russia’s ongoing war against Ukraine, the Kremlin’s growing nuclear blackmail of the West and regular threats to use some measures[2] against any NATO country whose military deployments might potentially affect Russian missiles’ striking capabilities. Against this backdrop and with the new US administration coming to power in 2025 under the slogan of turning all its attention to China, Europe will have to care much more about its defence and security than before 2022. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine revealed the weak spots of the European NATO pillar in terms of arms production, military budgeting and general preparedness for a large-scale war in European territory, which turns out to be critical for the security of the continent.
Topic:
Defense Policy, NATO, Deterrence, Military, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Germany, and United States of America