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41. With war next door, Moldova is accelerating its rapprochement with the EU

Author:
Maia Sandu
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
Russia's ruthless invasion of Ukraine has upended the existing order in Europe and the world, and with it the security architecture, global energy, trade, and financial systems. Since the end of the Cold War, technological progress and economic growth had led to stronger cooperation and an unprecedented level of connectivity between countries. Growing interdependence of the world's economies, cultures, and populations, brought about by cross-border trade and flows of investment, people, and information have promoted reconciliation and prosperity. Dictatorships fell, one-party rule ended, democracy prevailed. The Republic of Moldova declared independence in 1991[1] . Like us, the newly independent states had great expectations. We embraced this new beginning as a chance for peace and democratic development. We committed to being part of the free world. A world where states are sovereign and equal; where borders are respected; where states cooperate, settle disputes peacefully and fulfil obligations under international law; where respect for human rights and fundamental freedoms is at the heart of governance. And like others, Moldova hoped that buffer zones, spheres of influence and land grabs were a matter of the past. Above all, we wanted to live freely and choose our own future. But our aspirations to make our own choices were met by Russia's imperialist response. Its encouragement and support for secessionist rebels on the left bank of the Nistru river gave birth to a frozen conflict. Frozen conflicts, like the one in Moldova's Transnistrian region, have become one of Russia's foreign policy tools to destabilise its neighbourhood, prevent democratic consolidation and to simply hold back our development. Fast-forward a quarter of a century and a similar toolbox is applied to keep the EU-hopeful Ukraine part of the Russian sphere of influence. First Crimea, then Donbas, and eight years later - on that grim morning of 24 February 2022 - a full scale invasion of Ukraine. This ruthless, unjust, illegal war has unleashed an unimaginable tragedy on the Ukrainian people, generating shock waves across Europe and beyond the continent. As the first bombs fell on Ukrainian soil, Moldova has vigorously condemned the war, opened its borders to hundreds of thousands of refugees and has firmly stood with Ukraine ever since. Watching the suffering from across the border with sorrow and horror, we have been wondering if Moldova will be next. I am grateful to Ukraine, its military and citizens, for their fierce resistance. As they are fighting for their land and freedom, they are fighting for ours, too. We are safe thanks to Ukraine.
Topic:
European Union, Regional Integration, Rapprochement, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe and Moldova

42. For the generations on the move in Europe, still so many challenges to overcome. A European odyssey

Author:
Niccolò Bianchini and Stefanie Buzmaniuk
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
Until the middle of the 20th century, living in another European country and encountering its traditions and customs was the preserve of the nobility, the clergy, scientists (Marie Curie, Alfred Nobel, Émilie du Châtelet), intellectuals (Goethe, Nietzsche, Pirandello), artists (Modigliani, van Gogh), musicians (Liszt, Chopin) and writers (Joyce, Stendhal, Rilke). Democratising this experience is one of the promises of the European project. Living, working, studying or retiring in another Member State has become a reality for a considerable share of European citizens. 13.7 million Europeans (i.e. 3.1% of the European population) are "internal migrants" whom we shall call "mobile Europeans", i.e. citizens who choose to live in a Member State of the European Union other than the one in which they were born or of which they are a national. If, by way of comparison, we were to reduce this figure to the population of a European State, it would correspond to a State with a population greater than Belgium - a State which has 21 Members of the European Parliament. If these citizens had a common voice, their political power would be considerable. Often, however, mobile Europeans are identified more by their national passports than by their European citizenship - and the administrative and practical obstacles they face in their experiences as "nationals of another Member State" are very real. Europeans have been guaranteed freedom of movement since the 1957 Treaty of Rome. Initially limited to workers, the case law of the Court of Justice of the European Union, changes to the Treaties and successive enlargements have given new categories of Europeans the right to settle in a Member State other than that of their nationality. Intra-European mobility was made possible by the introduction of European citizenship in the Maastricht Treaty, which came into force in 1993. Mobility is guaranteed by article 3 TEU, article 21 TFEU and article 45 the European Charter of Fundamental Rights. The latter give Europeans political rights, as well as "the right to move and reside freely within the territory of the Member States". At present, the principle of free movement - which was strengthened thanks to the Schengen Agreement of 1995 - applies to the 27 Member States of the European Union and to the countries of the European Economic Area, which includes Iceland, Liechtenstein and Norway. This principle also applies to Switzerland under bilateral agreements. It is mainly nationals of Central and Eastern European or Southern European countries who decide to live in another Member State. In 2021, the Romanians, Poles, Italians and Portuguese comprised the main groups of Europeans living far from home. Flows are particularly significant from East to West and from South to the North of the continent, but there are also considerable flows between neighbouring countries, such as Germany and Austria, Sweden and Denmark or between the Baltic States. Incidentally Germany is the country which hosts the greatest number of these mobile Europeans (4.5 million), followed by Spain, Italy and France. Croatia, Bulgaria, Lithuania and Latvia are home to fewer than 1%. The free movement or people, goods and services is considered by Europe's citizens as the most positive achievement of European integration, followed by peace. In a geopolitical context that has brought the issue of peace in Europe back to the fore, this result, which dates from the winter of 2022, may come as a surprise. At the same time, it testifies to Europeans' attachment to a "tangible" Europe and underlines the importance granted to this achievement, whose impact is indeed a reality. Moreover, 58% of Europeans believe that the free movement of people is beneficial to the labour market. Despite the expression of attachment on the part of Europeans and the legal efforts made to support free movement, reality unfortunately reveals that there is still vast scope for progress and many areas for improvement. This is why it remains imperative to analyse the obstacles that, in practice, complicate citizens' mobility and prevent the creation of a more people-centred Europe.
Topic:
Democratization, Migration, Citizenship, Regional Integration, and Mobility
Political Geography:
Europe

43. Moldova, land of the European Union's partnership mission

Author:
Florent Parmentier
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
Sharing 939 kilometres of borders with Ukraine, Moldova is closest to the epicentre of the war that began on 24 February 2022. From the very first weeks onwards, the Moldovan authorities had to build reception facilities for Ukrainian refugees fleeing the fighting in the south and east of the country. In diplomatic and strategic terms, this war has also played a role in accelerating events, since in June 2022 Moldova was, against all expectations, recognised as candidate country to the European Union. The credit for this European rapprochement goes largely to the leadership team headed by President Maia Sandu. He later, with her party (Party of Action and Solidarity, PAS), has led the nation's dynamic forces along this demanding path of transformation, despite the many difficulties that the country faces. The war has already changed Moldova’s geopolitical situation, which has to contend with a great number of hybrid threats from Russia. In other words, beyond the success of the European Political Community Summit, organised at Castelul Mimi on 1 June last, and the many political signals received on this occasion, Moldova still needs assistance on the road to European transformation. This is why the Europeans decided to launch a partnership mission on 31 May last in Chisinau together with the High Representative Josep Borrell, the Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Affairs Minister Nicu Popescu and the then Home Affairs Minister, Ana Revenco.
Topic:
European Union, Partnerships, Regional Integration, Hybrid Threats, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe, Ukraine, Moldova, and Eastern Europe

44. Treaty revision: is Europe ready for a qualitative leap?

Author:
Dimitris Triantafyllou
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
The discussion about a future revision of the European treaties[1] is back on the agenda. In June 2022, following the conference on the future of Europe, after consulting European citizens directly, presented its conclusions in May 2022, (including forty-nine proposals and three hundred and twenty-six concrete measures), the European Parliament called for the a Convention for the Revision of the Treaties. On 25 October 2023, the Committee on Constitutional Affairs (AFCO) suggested relaunching this call, with proposals for revision in a report due to be put to the vote at the plenary session of 20 to 23 November. A Franco-German Working Group published its recommendations on the same subject in September 2023. The President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, seemed to support, or at least not rule out, the idea of a Convention in her "State of the Union" speeches in September 2022 and 2023. In a Manifesto dated 4 October 2023 some thirty leading figures from the world of European politics and academia advocated "progressive and pragmatic" federalism for the European Union. The idea of revising the Treaties is gradually gaining ground in view of a possible further enlargement of the European Union in the medium term. Depending on the state of political resolve[2], this is expected to take place against a turbulent geopolitical backdrop, marked by the Ukrainian and Israeli-Palestinian conflicts and threats to the European Union's direct neighbourhood. The dilemma between deepening and widening has resurfaced, to be addressed by an articulated combination of the two. This means preventing enlargement before the European Union has been strengthened by changes to the way it operates, thereby avoiding obstructions to decision-making. Although the current geopolitical situation is pushing for enlargement, the need to reform the European Union ought already have been considered in much more neutral terms. For several years now, states such as China and India have been gaining in power on the international stage, competing with the United States and potentially relegating the European Union to a secondary position in the world, both economically and politically. The challenges of climate change, demographics and immigration only exacerbate this risk. The EU needs to be strengthened, independently of and before any idea of enlargement. The prospect of enlargement only serves to accelerate the process, as the catalyst of reform that sets it in it motion.
Topic:
Treaties and Agreements, European Union, Regional Integration, and Future
Political Geography:
Europe

45. EU’s Democractic Conditionality: Democratic Principles and Procedures?

Author:
Déborah Silva do Monte
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Contexto Internacional
Institution:
Institute of International Relations, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
Abstract:
This article aims at explaining the changes in the democratic conditionality of the European Union over time from the institutional contexts of the domestic and regional levels. The comparison milestones regard enlargements that happened between 1993 and 2014. Variations on the dependent variable are analysed in light of the principles and procedures of the concept of polyarchy (Dahl 1989). This analysis demonstrates and explains that the democratic conditionality of the EU has changed over time, becoming more complete and with more pluralist principles when applied to the enlargements. It also highlights the relation between the democratic conditionality and the democratic deficit of the EU by the incorporation of democratic principles and procedures in EU institutions.
Topic:
European Union, Regional Integration, Decision-Making, Democratic Conditionality, and Polyarchy
Political Geography:
Europe

46. An Evidence-Based Analysis of the Eu’s Hampered Transformative Power in the Western Balkans

Author:
Doris Malaj and Elena Polo
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:
Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:
The objectives of this paper were to assess the role of the EU in the countries willing to join and committed to the negotiation processes (with a particular focus on the WB region) and to explore further and explain the dynamics of the EU’s crucial role onto the political performance, summarizing internal and external country and region-based developments. For this purpose, the deployed methodology consists of conducting a comparative quantitative analysis, comparing evidence from selected countries and from selected enlargement waves. The main results of the analysis confirmed that the EU’s role in ensuring democratic performances at the country/region level is seriously weakened over time and that it is therefore essential that the EU, especially in uncertain times, rethink and revitalize its democracy-promoting mechanisms to rebuild and re-test itself as a transformative power.
Topic:
European Union, Regional Integration, Democratic Performance, and Enlargement
Political Geography:
Europe and Balkans

47. EU enlargement in wartime Europe: Three dimensions and scenarios

Author:
Tyyne Karjalainen
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:
The enlargement policy of the European Union from 2013 to 2022 was not only ineffective, but also lacked an active enlargement drive. Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine changed the equation of costs and benefits in favour of new members and gave the EU a geopolitical incentive to restart enlargement. Enlargement is not only a geopolitical strategy, however: it also requires successful state-building efforts in the neighbourhood. Moreover, it is closely interlinked with the EU’s internal development. This Working Paper analyzes the current evolution of the EU enlargement policy as it emerges from the interplay of geopolitics, state-building challenges, and the EU’s internal dynamics. Drawing on original interviews with state officials, the paper also presents three scenarios for the coming decade. The paper concludes that to achieve its foreign policy objectives in the neighbourhood, the EU cannot continue “business as usual” with enlargement. On the contrary, the policy of 2013–2022 needs to be replaced by a more effective model that encourages candidate countries to undertake genuine efforts towards democratic development. At the same time, reforms and compromises are required at the EU’s end, including a solution to the dilemma between deepening and widening. Finally, the EU also needs to better address the security needs of the applicant countries already during the accession process.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, European Union, Regional Integration, Russia-Ukraine War, and Enlargement
Political Geography:
Europe

48. Partnership for Enlargement: A new way to integrate Ukraine and the EU’s eastern neighbourhood

Author:
Piotr Buras and Kai-Olaf Lana
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
Russia’s war on Ukraine puts the entire future European order at risk. It is already forcing a profound reconsideration of the EU’s and its neighbours’ interests. To address this, the EU needs to devise a new approach to its neighbourhood, similar to the way in which it has rapidly enhanced its security and economic policies to respond to the threat. The EU should establish a Partnership for Enlargement that offers Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia, and Western Balkans states concrete steps towards deeper integration – and a pathway to eventual membership. This new partnership should include three ‘pillars’: single market integration and the reconstruction of Ukraine; a reinforced commitment to energy security and climate transition; and stronger political cooperation in security matters. As countries with key interests in the Ukraine war, Germany and Poland should work particularly closely to drive this new project forward.
Topic:
European Union, Partnerships, Regional Integration, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

49. Baltic States’ Expectations Regarding Germany’s Role in Baltic Security

Author:
Toms Rostoks
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:
ICDS is introducing a series of policy briefs “Germany and the Security of the Baltic States”. In the first brief, introducing the series, Toms Rostoks sets out in broad terms what Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania would like Germany to contribute to Baltic security and assesses the prospects for achieving this. Germany plays a major role in the security of the Baltic region and, especially, of the Baltic states. Although the Baltic states would favour Germany taking an even more prominent role, there are obstacles to this due to its very different views on issues such as military power, Russia and European defence integration. Germany’s military power is, by policy choice, limited. Its willingness to use that power, even for the purposes of deterring Russia, is still more limited. More broadly, Germany seems to assume that the worst excesses of Russia’s behaviour can be tamed through dialogue and interdependence. European defence cooperation, however, offers an opportunity for Germany to build a stronger military without raising concerns about its actions. In the long term, the Baltic states expect Germany to play a robust role in the region and to more efficiently counter Russia’s policy, but in the short-term their objective would be to ensure that Germany’s commitments to their security do not decrease.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, International Cooperation, and Regional Integration
Political Geography:
Europe, Lithuania, Germany, Estonia, Latvia, and Baltic States

50. Baltic Perspectives on Germany’s Role in NATO

Author:
Justinas Juozaitis
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:
In the second brief in our “Germany and the Security of the Baltic States” series, Justinas Juozaitis considers Germany’s contribution to NATO from a Baltic perspective and looks at what might change under Chancellor Olaf Scholz. Germany’s contribution to NATO’s collective defence and deterrence, including in the Baltic region, is substantial, but does not match what might be expected given its economic strength. The Bundeswehr already struggles to meet its commitments to the Alliance and recent increases in the defence budget have not translated into major improvements in capability. Germany will most likely not meet in full the promises it has made to enhancing collective defence. Even then, the new government will have to face decisions that will be unpopular with the public, and within their own coalition. Germany’s continued political support for deterrence in the Baltic region will likely continue, but its own military contribution will probably be smaller than promised.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, NATO, Economy, Regional Integration, and Deterrence
Political Geography:
Europe, Germany, and Baltic States