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2. European Democracy Support Annual Review 2024
- Author:
- Richard Youngs, Kinga Brudzinska, Zselyke Csaky, Ricardo Farinha, and Ken Godfrey
- Publication Date:
- 01-2025
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- In 2024, a series of elections reinforced EU concerns about the fragility of European democracies. This, coupled with intensifying conflict dynamics and authoritarian trends worldwide, led the EU to focus on protecting democracy at home at the expense of supporting it globally.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Authoritarianism, Reform, European Union, Democracy, and Democratic Backsliding
- Political Geography:
- Europe
3. The European Union Growth Plan for the Western Balkans: A reality test for EU enlargement
- Author:
- Valbona Zeneli, Richard Grieveson, Isabelle Ioannides, and Dimitar Bechev
- Publication Date:
- 05-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- The European Union (EU) Growth Plan for the Western Balkans aims to integrate the region into the EU single market, enhance regional cooperation, implement significant governance and rule of law reforms, and boost EU financial support. In doing so, the EU seeks to foster economic development, political stability, and security in the region amid rising geopolitical tensions, while accelerating the Western Balkans’ EU accession process. The Growth Plan holds substantial potential to reinvigorate the enlargement process and counter the stagnation felt by both the EU and the region. Strong points include: Tangible benefits before full accession: Providing stronger incentives for reform. Active involvement of regional governments: Increasing buy-in from local leaders, who must submit their own reform agendas. Enhanced economic integration, greater access to the EU market, increased EU funding, and reforms to governance and the rule of law: Stimulating investment, promoting economic growth, and raising living standards. These improvements would bring the Western Balkans closer to the economic success seen in the Central and Eastern European countries in the EU over the past two decades. Moreover, fostering deeper regional cooperation will not only deliver an economic boost but also contribute to political normalization. If successful, the plan will bolster the EU’s political influence in the region, countering the impact of external actors and encouraging much-needed nearshoring investment from EU firms. However, the plan faces several challenges: Enforceability: Although conditionality is rigorous, with disbursement of funds tied to strict conditions to prevent misuse, there are concerns regarding its enforceability. The European Court of Auditors has already raised reservations. Quantity: Additionally, the financial support offered is significantly lower than what EU member states in Southeast Europe receive. The reforms required for fund access and single market integration are substantial and will demand significant political will and institutional capacity—both of which have been lacking in the region at times over the past two decades. The success of the growth plan will largely depend on its implementation. The EU must ensure rigorous enforcement of conditionality, reward positive reform steps, and increase funding for countries making progress. Civil society in the Western Balkans should be engaged as much as possible to foster broader support and transparency. The EU should also leverage the plan to align with its broader geopolitical and geoeconomic interests, particularly in strengthening its strategic autonomy. Additionally, the Growth Plan should be fully integrated with the EU’s competitiveness, green, and digital transition agendas. For their part, Western Balkans leaders should seize the increased agency provided by the plan. They must take ownership of the reforms they propose, participate actively in EU meetings, and design their reform agendas to deliver better living standards and deeper EU integration for their populations.
- Topic:
- Markets, Reform, European Union, and Enlargement
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Western Balkans
4. Competitive Harmonisation: A Collaborative Framework for Intra-EU Reform and Competitiveness
- Author:
- Matthias Bauer
- Publication Date:
- 02-2025
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
- Abstract:
- Persistent legal fragmentation, compounded by the EU’s 24 official languages, increases costs and legal uncertainty, deterring meaningful investments in innovation and preventing businesses from scaling across borders. Without bold, comprehensive legal reforms, Europe will fall further behind in global competition and major global technological developments. The EU’s incremental reform approach has failed to address the deep-rooted legal and institutional challenges threatening Europe’s economic future. Competitive Harmonisation offers a pragmatic yet visionary concept to overcome legal fragmentation, tackle the business scale gap, and unlock Europe’s vast economic potential. By embracing “collaborative governance” through coalitions of willing Member States, aligning with global standards, and prioritising innovation and technology diffusion, European governments can enhance the Single Market and restore Europe’s leadership in lawmaking and industrial competitiveness. Amid growing political risks, such as the threat of tariffs, the responsibility to act decisively rests squarely with Europe. By taking bold, pragmatic steps now, Europeans can not only resolve immediate challenges but also lay the groundwork for sustainable, long-term economic development.
- Topic:
- Markets, Reform, European Union, Regional Economy, and Economic Competition
- Political Geography:
- Europe
5. False promises: The authoritarian development models of China and Russia
- Author:
- Joseph Lemoine, Dan Negrea, Patrick Quirk, and Lauren Van Metre
- Publication Date:
- 01-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- Are authoritarian regimes more successful than free countries in offering prosperity to their people? The answer is decidedly no, yet China and Russia actively advertise the “benefits” and “promise” of their authoritarian development model. Beijing and Moscow contend that their governance model—rooted in central control of political, social, and economic life—delivers for their people. The facts prove exactly the opposite and show that countries characterized by repression and concentrated control are far less successful across all metrics of human development than are free societies. That free societies are better for the people residing in them is not an ideological position; it is a statement of fact backed by substantial evidence, including, but not limited to, the Atlantic Council’s Freedom and Prosperity Indexes. This paper aims to showcase why and how the authoritarian development model is inferior to that of free societies. The first section documents democratic backsliding and the reversal of freedom’s fortunes. The second section presents data on how authoritarian regimes have failed to deliver prosperity for their people. The third section outlines how free societies have done the opposite—delivered sustained prosperity for their citizens. The final section offers the conclusion that authoritarian regimes, despite their claims, cannot deliver democratic progress or prosperity for society at large.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Development, Diplomacy, Politics, Authoritarianism, Reform, and Democratic Transitions
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Europe, and Asia
6. Three risks that must be addressed for new European Union fiscal rules to succeed
- Author:
- Lucio Pench
- Publication Date:
- 05-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Bruegel
- Abstract:
- The debate on the reform of the European Union’s fiscal rules, the Stability and Growth Pact, has largely focused on their design. This nearly exclusive focus has distracted attention from the equally, if not more, important aspects of implementation. The reform, completed in April 2024, left implementation unaddressed, or at least open to very different potential outcomes. In particular, the reform failed to clarify the interplay between EU countries’ medium-term fiscal structural plans (MTFSPs), which embody the new focus on debt sustainability, and the excessive deficit procedure (EDP), which remains the main enforcement tool under the rules. The need for clarification is urgent as several countries are set to enter EDPs for breaching the SGP’s 3 percent of GDP deficit threshold at the same time as their first MTFSPs are endorsed in autumn 2024. There is a risk that the adjustment paths prescribed by EDPs may be at least temporarily less demanding than the debt-sustainability requirements of the MTFSPs would normally imply. Even if consistency between EDPs and MTFSPs is ensured from the start, inconsistencies may arise over time and be resolved in a way that further postpones the necessary adjustment. The main risk is that the 3 percent of GDP deficit might be perceived as the only target that matters for countries that enter EDPs in 2024, as repeated revisions of the MTFSPs undermine the cogency of the debt sustainability requirements. This scenario is likely to materialise if the countries are allowed to exit their EDPs upon bringing their deficits to or below 3 percent of GDP, while being still far from the necessary correction of the debt trajectory. It is important to shape countries’ expectations on the implementation of the upcoming EDPs in a way that is conducive to the immediate internalisation of the debt sustainability constraint implied by the new rules, rather than allowing it to be viewed as a distant objective. This change in expectations could be achieved by clarifying that, even if a country has been placed in an EDP only for breach of the deficit criterion, it should also satisfy the debt criterion for the procedure to be abrogated.
- Topic:
- Debt, Reform, European Union, Fiscal Policy, and Sustainability
- Political Geography:
- Europe
7. Incorporating the impact of social investments and reforms in the European Union’s new fiscal framework
- Author:
- Zsolt Darvas, Lennard Welslau, and Jeromin Zettelmeyer
- Publication Date:
- 03-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Bruegel
- Abstract:
- The European Union’s new fiscal framework aims to incentivise public investment and reforms by offering the option to extend the four-year fiscal adjustment period to seven years, thereby lowering the average annual fiscal adjustment requirement. EU countries can propose investment and reforms in the context of their national medium-term fiscal structural plans. When they do, these investments and reforms can be expected to also inform the fiscal adjustment proposed by member states. Yet, the EU lacks an agreed methodology for deciding on the potential quantitative impact of investment and reforms on the fiscal adjustment required under the new rules. This paper first analyses the ‘investment friendliness’ of the new framework. Although the incentives offered for raising investment are powerful, the bar for extending the adjustment period mainly through higher investment is high, and the design of the new rules will make it hard to actually raise investment. We next propose an approach for quantifying the impact of investment and reform on debt sustainability in the context of the new framework, taking into account uncertainty about their implementation and their economic effects. Such a methodology would also help the European Commission evaluate the impacts of recently adopted measures, the impacts of which are not yet observable. Developing this methodology will require revisiting the current commonly agreed methodologies for medium- and long-term capital stock and total factor productivity projections. We illustrate the potential impact of investment on debt sustainability analyses through calculations on three social investment measures, that is, combinations of reform and public spending that aim to increase human capital and labour force participations. While the impact of individual reforms on fiscal adjustment needs is generally modest, the combined impact of several measures could be notable.
- Topic:
- Reform, European Union, Fiscal Policy, Public Investment, and Social Investment
- Political Geography:
- Europe
8. Reforming the Centre of Government
- Author:
- Caroline Slocock and Ray Shostak
- Publication Date:
- 03-2024
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
- Abstract:
- Ahead of a potential change of government in the United Kingdom during this year, this webinar examines the reform of the centre of government across the world. Chaired by Professor Patrick Diamond, this webinar saw Professor Ray Shostak, Martin Alessandro, and Caroline Slocock explore the lessons that could be learned by British policy practitioners. In every government, the centre of government performs a set of crucial functions: the institutions and units working at the centre provide managerial direction and coherence to the complex governing machinery, not least in accelerating the delivery of priority objectives. In the UK, the operation in Number 10 Downing Street has become the focus of much attention in recent years with its leadership and oversight role increasingly questioned. Over the last decade, crises, and shocks - including global pandemics, climate hazards, economic crises, technological developments, and global conflicts - have enhanced the value of anticipatory governance and foresight, cross-ministerial planning and policy design, alongside real-time performance monitoring and intervention all provided through the centre of government.
- Topic:
- Government, Reform, Crisis Management, and Institutions
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Europe
9. 'An Insane Miracle': 100 years of since the first Labour government
- Author:
- Carolyn Quinn, Jon Cruddas, David Torrance, Jane Ridley, and Richard Johnson
- Publication Date:
- 02-2024
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
- Abstract:
- On 22 January 1924, the United Kingdom experienced what The Annual Register described as ‘a revolution as profound as that associated with the Reform Act of 1832’ – the formation of the first Labour government. After an inconclusive general election in December 1923, the King invited Ramsay MacDonald to become Prime Minister. For the leader of the so-called ‘Wild Men’ – who had helped to found the Labour Representation Committee in 1900 and been the fledgling party’s leader for a little over a year – the formation of his minority administration was ‘an insane miracle’. While the government was defeated just over nine months later, at a general election in October 1924, it proved to the country and the wider movement that the Labour Party was willing and able to govern. To mark the centenary of MacDonald’s appointment, the Mile End Institute assembled a stellar panel of experts on Labour politics, the constitution, and interwar Britain. In addition to Jon Cruddas MP and Dr David Torrance - whose new books A Century of Labour and The Wild Men had just been published - we were joined by Professor Jane Ridley (the author of George V: Never a Dull Moment) and Dr Richard Johnson. In this fascinating discussion chaired by the journalist and former host of Radio 4’s Westminster Hour, Carolyn Quinn, the panel reflected on King George V's decision to call for MacDonald rather than the governing Conservative or Liberal parties, the changing makeup of the Labour Party and its relationship with the Crown, and the MacDonald administration's political and legislative achievements. With a general election approaching, the panel also considered what lessons, if any, MacDonald’s minority administration offers to future Labour governments.
- Topic:
- Reform, Elections, Domestic Politics, and Labour Party
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Europe
10. Europe as a Geopolitical Actor: Reforming the EU’s Narrative in North Africa
- Author:
- Zine Labidine Ghebouli
- Publication Date:
- 02-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- IEMed/EuroMeSCo
- Abstract:
- This paper will examine the gap between the promises and self-perception of the EU and its member states in North Africa, and the realities of implemented policies. It is true that the founding principle of the EU, i.e., to promote peace and prosperity, has never been more pivotal in policy frameworks. However, Europe on the level of both the EU and its member states is confronting complex post-COVID dynamics such as major life changes, further weakening of vulnerable economies, and deeper sociopolitical fractures. Added to this dangerous mix of challenges, the invasion of Ukraine is not only a violation of the latter’s territorial integrity and sovereignty but is also a symptom of an overall weakened security order both in Europe and abroad (De Clerck-Sachsse, 2022). At a time of multiple crises, it is imperative to reassess Europe’s partnerships in North Africa to develop a new narrative that is based on realistic advantages and limitations.
- Topic:
- Sovereignty, Reform, European Union, Geopolitics, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Europe and North Africa