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1. Dissecting the Political Landscape of War-Torn Ukraine: Between Internal Challenges and External Threats

Author:
Aram Terzyan
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:
Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:
This paper explores the political landscape of war-torn Ukraine, focusing on the country’s core domestic problems. The war in Ukraine has led to a significant deterioration of Ukraine’s political landscape. While victory on the battlefield is Ukraine’s utmost priority, escalating internal problems pose additional challenges. With Ukraine having obtained EU candidate status, these problems have moved to a new level on the EU’s membership agenda. The most urgent of these is endemic corruption, which has gained fresh momentum during the war and has put foreign aid at risk. As the costs of the war grow, international pressure on the Ukrainian authorities to show better results increases. Accountability and transparency should become the guiding principles of the reconstruction and recovery processes to maintain Western support and ensure effective postwar reconstruction.
Topic:
Corruption, Reconstruction, Minorities, European Union, Russia-Ukraine War, and De-Oligarchization
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

2. Refugees and Return: Resolving Ukraine's Human Capital Crisis

Author:
Markus Ziener and Dariia Mykhailyshyna
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:
Ukraine is facing a human capital crisis of enormous proportions. Here, Dariia Mykhailyshyna of the Center for Economic Strategy in Kyiv presents the findings of three waves of surveys among Ukrainian refugees about their intentions to return to Ukraine or remain in their host countries. The report contains some recommendations for encouraging Ukrainians to return. Millions of its citizens fled the country after Russia launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022. To share best practices and generate possible solutions, the German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMF), along with its partners—the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development and the German Society for International Cooperation (GIZ), hosted a conference titled “Toward a Skilled Workforce: Rebuilding Ukraine’s Human Capital” in Berlin on April 25–26, 2024. To set the stage, Dariia Mykhailyshyna of the Center for Economic Strategy in Kyiv presented the findings of three waves of surveys among Ukrainian refugees. Those findings, as well as some recommendations, are detailed in this report.
Topic:
Reconstruction, European Union, Refugees, and Human Capital
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

3. Explaining Ukraine’s recovery and reconstruction: what, how and when?

Author:
Tinatin Akhvlediani
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has resulted in colossal human loss. According to the World Bank, this has already in 2023 amounted to 26 000 civilian casualties, the displacement of around 3.7 million people internally within Ukraine and around 5.9 million externally in Europe and beyond. The war has pushed 7.1 million people into poverty and reversed 15 years of economic development. This is reflected in the drastic increase in inequality, particularly among women, children, people with disabilities and elderly. This CEPS Explainer aims to review what is at stake, how Ukraine’s reconstruction has been addressed thus far, and what conditions and timelines are necessary for scaling up efforts. It looks at the immediate and long-term needs for Ukraine’s recovery and reconstruction, examines the existing framework for coordinating and implementing rebuilding efforts, describes potential funding sources and analyses the financial support already committed for Ukraine’s reconstruction. Finally, it reviews Ukraine’s ability to effectively absorb reconstruction funds and outlines the basic conditions required for scaling up reconstruction.
Topic:
Reconstruction, Recovery, Economic Development, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

4. The Impact of Ukraine’s Accession on the EU’s Economy

Author:
Tinatin Akhvlediani and Veronika Movchan
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
The groundwork for Ukraine’s integration into the EU’s single market was laid by the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement (AA). A key component of the AA, the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA), paved the way for Ukraine’s gradual integration into the EU’s single market. Building on the DCFTA, Ukraine’s integration into the EU’s economy has significantly advanced since February 2022. In response to the invasion, the EU swiftly and temporarily but completely liberalised its market for Ukrainian goods through Autonomous Trade Measures (ATMs) and triggered the Temporary Protection Directive that has enabled over 4 million Ukrainian refugees to reside and work in the EU. With a continued swift trajectory, Ukraine’s integration is set to be much more comprehensive by the (yet unknown) time of accession. As this study outlines, the prospect of Ukraine’s accession to the EU brings some challenges but holds immense potential for mutual economic benefit. Free movement of goods. Full access under the ATM has not caused drastic changes in the EU’s imports or in the functioning of the single market in general. Yet, to avoid disruptions in the future, the accession treaty could include transition periods for full market access for Ukrainian goods in those EU Member States that may be vulnerable to a sharp increase in imports. Full trade liberalisation in services is expected to have more trade-easing effects, particularly for the EU, as it holds most of the reservations. Ukraine’s main EU partners in services trade are Germany and Poland, but services trade with Ukraine’s other major partners, including Estonia, has been steadily increasing since the implementation of the EU-Ukraine DCFTA. Thus, trade absorption capacity should be sustainable. Free movement of capital. Given the underdevelopment of Ukraine’s financial sector and capital markets, legislative and policy alignment should serve as a solid foundation for financial deepening in the country. Eased movement of capital will make it significantly easier to conduct business and trade and commercial and non-commercial payments between Ukraine and the EU. Free movement of workers. As long as Ukrainian workers fit the labour demands of the receiving EU countries, they could fill the gap in the labour supply and complement rather than replace local workers. An enlarged EU as a global supplier. Ukraine could strengthen the EU’s position in critical materials and key agricultural products, as well as contribute to the EU technologically with its emerging ICT sector and increasing skills and know-how in IT and computer services. Ukraine’s reconstruction and sustainable recovery is a significant challenge that requires substantial financial support. Yet, by addressing these considerations with foresight and diligence, Ukraine’s accession to the EU could not only elevate Ukraine’s standing but could also strengthen the EU’s position on the global stage.
Topic:
Reconstruction, European Union, Economy, Regional Integration, Trade, Recovery, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

5. Using Frozen Russian Assets to Rebuild Ukraine: Possibilities for the EU

Author:
Elzbieta Kaca
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The EU wants to finance the reconstruction of Ukraine, using for this purpose frozen Russian assets, among others. The European Commission proposes to improve the system of confiscation of private assets of sanctioned persons in case of criminal activity and to obtain income from the active management of immobilised Russian public assets. These solutions may yield limited results. To be more effective, the EU would have to reach an international agreement to confiscate the reserves of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation.
Topic:
Sanctions, Reconstruction, European Union, Assets, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

6. Toward Inclusive Recovery in Ukraine: Engaging Women and Civil Society in Ukraine’s Relief, Recovery, and Reconstruction

Author:
Jess Keller
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Georgetown Institute for Women, Peace and Security (GIWPS)
Abstract:
Women’s participation in the design and implementation of Ukraine’s recovery programs is critical to maximize the effectiveness of the reconstruction process, take into account differentiated needs, and bolster post-conflict development. Key recommendations: Promote women’s participation, leadership, and decision-making in Ukraine’s planning frameworks and recovery process. Ensure new funding enables women’s active participation in Ukraine’s recovery and advances gender equality. Establish a gender-sensitive monitoring mechanism for the Ukrainian government to report on recovery progress and collect and analyze sex-disaggregated data. Prioritize the re-establishment of critical social infrastructure and services. Integrate gender equality in Ukraine’s EU accession commitments.
Topic:
Civil Society, Reconstruction, Women, Recovery, Participation, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

7. Post-conflict Reconstruction in Ukraine: Challenges and Opportunities

Author:
Silvia Samorè
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
During her first visit to Kyiv on 21 February 2023, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni reassured President Volodymyr Zelensky concerning the Italian commitment to the Ukrainian resistance and defence against the Russian invasion. To most people’s surprise, she stated that “we [Prime Minister Meloni and President Zelensky] have spoken a lot today about reconstruction, not only for when the conflict ends, but also now”.[1] As a concrete follow-up on this commitment, on 26 April a bilateral conference on Ukraine’s reconstruction was held in Rome.[2] Indeed, the word “reconstruction” in reference to Ukraine has been used since the spring of 2022 at the EU level. This is a great achievement for the post-conflict researchers’ community and research centres that have restlessly highlighted the importance of dealing with conflict and post-conflict as a complex spectrum, where recovery considerations need to be taken into account from the early stages. When designing international efforts for physical reconstruction and investment, emerging challenges to good governance and rule of law, such as corruption, must be carefully considered and managed. Furthermore, it is paramount to discuss also non-physical aspects of reconstruction, encompassing all the threats to human security, such as the presence of small arms and light weapons (SALW), that could foster instability in the country after the end of the war.
Topic:
Reconstruction, European Union, Post-Conflict, Russia-Ukraine War, and Economic Aid
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

8. Rebuilding Ukraine: What the International Community Now Needs to Consider

Author:
Jörn Grävingholt and Jörg Faust
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:
Rebuilding Ukraine starts now – even if it is being undertaken against a backdrop of conflict, violence and destruction, with Russia continuing to wage its war of aggression. In granting Ukraine European Union (EU) candidate status, the EU has also made the country’s recovery one of its own priorities. If this reconstruction project is to succeed, then it is necessary to take into account specific contextual conditions, along with experiences from other recovery processes, such as those in the Western Balkans and Iraq. • Functional statehood: Ukraine is better placed in this regard than many other countries, particularly given the functional and widely accepted statehood throughout much of its territory. Reconstruction assistance can kick-start a forward-looking, sustainable green transformation in the economy and society. At the same time, there is a risk that massive external cash flows could feed old networks of corruption and patronage and create new ones. Clear accountability structures are required, along with sanctions for the misuse of funds, if this is to be counteracted. • Agile planning over linear phase model: Rebuilding work is taking place in an atmosphere of great uncertainty. Consequently, planning processes must be flexible in order to adapt to different war scenarios. A linear sequence of recovery phases fails to properly address the situation. This is already visible when it comes to efforts to secure critical infrastructure. Its proper functioning is essential to people’s daily lives and to all forms of reconstruction, yet this infrastructure could become a target for attacks again at any time. • Ukraine as a self-confident partner: As a result of the war’s trajectory, the Ukrainian Government is adopting a self-assured demeanour in its dealings with international donors. While this is essentially a positive thing, it can also give rise to a resistance to reform. The prospect of EU accession creates a common objective to work towards and can also establish coherent criteria for the recovery process, but only as long as accession remains a credible prospect. • Managing reconstruction assistance: Recovery funds have proven an effective means of coordination, though it remains to be seen whether there will be a single fund or several complementary ones. A central Ukraine fund should be (co-)managed on the donor end by the European Commission, as it has at its disposal the strongest reform incentive, namely EU accession. In the meantime, the EU needs to ensure that the Commission and the member states also provide the majority of the funding between them. • Diversity and inclusion: The governance structures of the reconstruction project should be designed to afford participation and a say to pluralist political institutions and civil society voices, and strengthen gender equality. In order to counter brain-drain, it is also imperative that young, mobile population groups (including refugees abroad) feel included. • Social equity: Incorporating social factors into the recovery process will also be essential. Vulnerable groups will require particular support, given the alarming level of impoverishment among the population as a result of the war. • Investment incentives: Essential reconstruction services have to be provided by the private sector. This requires that clear incentives be created, not least by providing investment guarantees. • Developing trauma sensitivity: The rebuilding work is taking place in a context of violence and trauma. This requires that all stakeholders develop a particular sensitivity in dealing with survivors of violence and engaging with a traumatised society.
Topic:
Reconstruction, International Community, Post-Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

9. Starr Forum: Rebuilding Ukraine While Under Fire

Author:
Oleg Ustenko and Simon Johnson
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
MIT Center for International Studies
Abstract:
A discussion with experts--including Oleg Ustenko, the economic advisor to President Zelensky--on rebuilding Ukraine in the midst of the ongoing war. Joining Ustenko is Simon Johnson, professor at MIT Sloan and former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund.
Topic:
Economics, Reconstruction, Armed Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

10. Will Ukraine’s refugees go home?

Author:
Uri Dadush and Pauline Weil
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
About 15 percent of the population has fled Ukraine since the start of the Russian aggression in February 2022. Nearly 4 million Ukrainians have already registered in European Union countries. Based in part on evidence that few refugees return voluntarily to poor countries once they settle in rich countries, even once security is re-established at home, it can be expected that large numbers of Ukrainian refugees are likely to remain in European host countries, and will likely be joined by others, including many men that remained to fight when the conflict is over. Ukraine already has a long history of emigration. Its shattered economy, the likelihood of a protracted conflict and significant uncertainty with regard to its final status reinforce the argument that most refugees will not return and many more will join them. EU nations must prepare for. There will be large short-term costs and long-term economic gains from Ukrainian immigration in Europe. The best way to help Ukraine, and to moderate the likely outflow of its people, will be to assist in the country’s reconstruction, and not to place artificial impediments to the immigration of individuals who have already suffered greatly.
Topic:
Migration, Governance, Reconstruction, Refugees, Economy, Trade, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine