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1. Polish Presidency of the Council - A paradigm shift in Poland's European policy

Author:
Piotr Buras and Michał Matlak
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
Poland is holding the Presidency of the Council of the European Union in the first half of 2025. After a controversial Hungarian presidency and political turbulence in France and Germany, European public opinion is looking to Poland, where an openly Eurosceptic government was ousted in the 2023 elections. This change has come at a time when the European Union is facing major existential challenges, in particular with the war in Ukraine, which are especially resonant in Poland. The hopes pinned on Poland are as much a reflection of the impression of a leadership vacuum in Europe that Warsaw - who else at the moment? - could fill, as well as the country's growing economic and geopolitical position after two decades of EU membership.
Topic:
Public Opinion, European Union, Geopolitics, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Europe and Poland

2. Long-term Effects of the Refugee Crisis on Greek Public Opinion Regarding Immigration

Author:
Nicholas Sambanis and Carlos di Bonifacio
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
Analyzing data from the European Social Survey (ESS), we explore macro-level effects of the 2015 refugee crisis on public attitudes toward immigration in Greece. Contrary to the belief that the crisis hardened Greeks’ attitudes toward immigration, we find no evidence of a significant negative effect that persists over time. Indeed, we observe a slight improvement in immigration attitudes since a low point that occurred during Greece’s foreign debt crisis. More broadly, the commonly held belief that European publics are becoming more hostile toward immigrants over time is a misperception of reality. We instead observe a slight improvement in attitudes since the refugee crisis of 2015.
Topic:
Migration, Immigration, Public Opinion, Refugee Crisis, and Debt Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe and Greece

3. 2024, a European political year - through the eyes of women

Author:
Stefanie Buzmaniuk
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
In 1906, Finland became the first country in Europe to grant women the right to vote, with the adoption of universal suffrage, at the same time as it won its autonomy from the Russian Empire. The following year, Finnish women were able to exercise this right in the general elections. Throughout the twentieth century, women in Europe and around the world fought long and hard to gain the right to vote without any additional conditions to those required of men. In some countries, only widows were allowed to vote as a first step towards electoral emancipation (in Belgium, for example, until 1921). In other countries, such as Bulgaria, the right to vote was initially reserved for mothers of legitimate children and exclusively for local elections. In Portugal, only women with a university degree were allowed to vote from 1931 on. In Spain it was not until post-Franco democratisation and the 1976 elections that Spanish women regained the right to vote, initially acquired in 1931 before the civil war. This year France is celebrating the 80th anniversary of women gaining the right to vote. Cypriot women won the right to vote at the same time as their male counterparts when the Republic was created in 1960. This can be explained quite simply by the fact that, at that time, such discrimination could no longer be justified. So, it took a good part of the twentieth century to get there... In European countries, legislation on the right to vote and stand for election now recognises equal access for women and men. However, their participation in political life is still marked by significant differences and major obstacles that we believe are unjustified. Women are still less represented on the political stage, even though they make up more than half of the population. In the European Union, there are ten million more women than men. This is a fact that deserves our attention in 2024, a year that is notable for its electoral importance, with the election of representatives to the European Parliament scheduled for 6 to 9 June. There will also be five presidential elections and six parliamentary elections in the Member States. This therefore provides a good opportunity to examine the position of women on the European political scene and the obstacles that still exist behind the scenes preventing them from participating fully in political life.
Topic:
Public Opinion, Elections, European Union, Women, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Europe

4. Beyond the EU enlargement paradox

Author:
René Cuperus and Saskia Hollander
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
This Clingendael report analyses the so-called ‘EU enlargement paradox’, which refers to the notion that EU enlargement is both inevitable and impossible at the same time. It is inevitable for geostrategic reasons, given Putin’s Russian imperial revisionism. But at the same time, EU enlargement is impossible for political institutional reasons. At the moment, neither the eligible candidate countries, nor the EU at large, nor the electorates in key EU Member States are ‘enlargement fit’. How could the Dutch government deal with this paradox? This paper aims to set the scene for the forthcoming debate in the Netherlands on the future of EU enlargement. To serve as a basis for risk analysis, it provides a systematic overview of various trade-offs on five policy domains: 1) geopolitics, security and defence; 2) rule of law and democracy; 3) economy and budget; 4) migration and free movement of persons; and 5) EU institutional structure. The report draws on findings from the latest Clingendael Barometer survey, which analysed Dutch public opinion towards enlargement along these dimensions.
Topic:
Public Opinion, European Union, Regional Integration, Survey, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Europe and Netherlands

5. Wars and elections: How European leaders can maintain public support for Ukraine

Author:
Ivan Krastev and Mark Leonard
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
As Russia’s war on Ukraine approaches its second anniversary, the European Parliament and US presidential elections are also on the horizon. Against this backdrop, Vladimir Putin is banking on war fatigue in the West to help achieve a Russian victory. European public opinion can inform Europe’s leaders about how best to make the case to continue support for Ukraine in this difficult environment. Europeans seem pessimistic about Ukraine’s chances of winning the war, while a plurality think it will end in some kind of settlement. But most Europeans are not in the mood for appeasement either. They would be disappointed if Donald Trump were to be re-elected, and many believe his victory could also be a win for Putin. In most member states, a plurality would want Europe to maintain its current support or increase it in the event of the US scaling down its aid. Leaders in Ukraine and Europe need to adjust their language and define the meaning of a ‘durable peace’ to prevent Putin taking advantage of war fatigue.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Public Opinion, Armed Conflict, Military Aid, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and United States of America

6. Public Opinion and Development Policy: Alignment Needed

Author:
Irene Paviotti
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The crises of the past few years have significantly affected the volumes of official development assistance (ODA) – also known as aid – provided by traditional donors. 2023 marked the fifth consecutive year for increased ODA allocations globally: total volumes reached 223.7 billion US dollars, a significant increase from the 160 billion US dollars provided in 2019. The succession of the Covid-19 pandemic, the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine and, most recently, the flare-up of the Israel-Palestine conflict contributed to such increase. Absolute volumes however position members of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development’s Development Assistance Committee (OECD DAC), that is, traditional donors, still far away from the United Nations target of allocating 0.7 per cent of gross national income (GNI) to ODA – in 2023, the OECD average hovered around 0.37 per cent.[1] Although this percentage is the highest in 55 years,[2] the need for concessional finance for developing countries has arguably never been more urgent. The challenges brought about by an ever-worsening climate crisis, coupled with long-standing issues such as poverty and poor health are enough to justify increased ODA, according to practitioners.[3] These figures are usually (and rightly) discussed from such outward impact perspective – how will a less generous donor affect the beneficiaries whose livelihoods its ODA supports? The input dimension, that is, whether these policies align with a country’s public sentiment on ODA, is however relatively less explored. ODA is public funding, so it might be legitimate to ask: where does public opinion stand on aid, and what could this possibly mean for development policy and practice?
Topic:
Development, Public Opinion, and Economic Aid
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, France, Germany, Italy, and United States of America

7. A discussion of Kosovo- NATO relations and prospects for greater cooperation

Author:
Leureta Lumi
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
Abstract:
Membership of Kosovo in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) is regarded as a national interest across Kosovo’s political spectrum and receives substantial public support. According to the 2022 Security Barometer by the Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS), an overwhelming 92 percent of all citizens in Kosovo are in favor of joining NATO. This support is even more pronounced among the Kosovo Albanians, where the approval rate soars to 99.5 percent. This is the only objective in Kosovo that enjoys this level of public backing. Kosovo’s Security Strategy 2022-2027 states ‘The irreplaceable aim of the Republic of Kosovo is NATO membership and integration as the mechanism that provides long-term strategic security’. NATO’s leading role in ending the 1999 war and averting a potential genocide in Kosovo is widely seen as a major reason behind the strong public support for the alliance. However, this sentiment has been reinforced by recent developments, such as the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, intensifying Kosovo’s appreciation for NATO membership. The urgency for Kosovo to join NATO is further heightened by the unresolved bilateral disputes with Serbia and the increasingly adversarial positions of Serbian President Vucic towards, as shown by a recent statement from him, which implies that on Kosovo, Serbia should learn from Azerbaijan, adding that: “They waited 27 years for special geopolitical circumstances”. The Banjska terrorist attack in September 2023, which is believed to have been orchestrated with the support of Serbian security institutions and in cooperation with Russia, reinforces the perception that Serbia sees a military solution to the “Kosovo problem”. Although Kosovo benefits from NATO’s protection via the KFOR mission, NATO’s stance on Kosovo remains status-neutral, with no significant advancement in NATO-Kosovo political relations since 2016. This paper delves into these challenges and seeks to explore the obstacles Kosovo faces on its path to NATO membership. Accordingly, this paper includes an analysis of the current NATO-Kosovo relations, options for Kosovo to enhance these relations and overcome key challenges, including exploration of the Partnership for Peace and the Membership Action Plan (MAP), a review of NATO accession processes in Albania, Montenegro and North Macedonia, and concluding remarks with recommendations.
Topic:
NATO, Public Opinion, Regional Security, and Security Cooperation
Political Geography:
Europe and Kosovo

8. A Fresh Perspective on Eurobarometer Data: Constructing ‘Social Mood Indices’ (SMIs) to Unveil Social Divisions in Europe

Author:
Antonis Papakostas and Spyros Blavoukos
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
With a history that goes back to 1970, the Eurobarometer has been a consistent gauge of European public sentiment, revealing patterns, convergences, and disparities. While a wealth of valuable data exists, the challenge lies in extracting meaningful trends from this extensive dataset. This paper introduces a novel approach to interpreting Eurobarometer results in a way which illuminates the intricate social divisions that exist in society. To enhance the accessibility of Eurobarometer insights, we engage in a meta-analysis of the collected data conducted by means of three constructed mega-indices: the ‘Life Satisfaction’ Index, the ‘Country Performance’ Index, and the ‘Trust in Institutions’ Index. These indices were formulated after a meticulous examination of public opinion on issues including life perception, national stability, and trust in institutions. The questions chosen to craft the indicators are consistently present in the vast majority of surveys (with very few exceptions). This approach ensures the identification of reliable and robust trends over longer periods of time. Reinterpreting Eurobarometer results through our method amplifies the nuances of societal divisions in European societies. Together, the application of these indices and the subsequent analysis enrich our understanding of public sentiment’s multifaceted nature. Based on the June 2023 Eurobarometer (EB99), we offer a few empirical insights stemming from the application of our methodology.
Topic:
Public Opinion, Survey, and Social Divisions
Political Geography:
Europe

9. Migration to the UK after Brexit: policy, politics and public opinion

Author:
UK in a Changing Europe
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
Immigration, while far less salient than it was in 2016, is becoming a key political and policy issue again. This report not only analyses what has changed in terms of both outcomes and public opinion but considers how a future government might respond to the issue of migration, and the kinds of tradeoffs they will have to address. The report, which brings together authors from British Future, the Institute for Government, the Migration Observatory, the Social Market Foundation, and the KCL Policy Institute, among others, provides a comprehensive review of changes in policy, outcomes, and public opinion that have reshaped the landscape. The report shows the next government faces a number of challenges as the large post-Covid spike in arrivals has pushed immigration to the top of the political agenda again. Numbers peaked at the end of 2022, with 1.15 million long-term international migrants (those planning to stay at least a year) arriving in the UK over the previous 12 months, although net migration is likely to fall very sharply over the course of 2024. A new model for ‘humanitarian migration’ has emerged in the years since Brexit, with large inflows of migrants fleeing conflict in Ukraine and political oppression in Hong Kong. With a range of expert contributors, the report looks ahead at the choices for the next government, covering integration, asylum, the role of AI in helping us understand public views on immigration, humanitarian migration routes, student migration, economic migration, the legacy of the Windrush scandal, and much more.
Topic:
Migration, Politics, Public Opinion, and Brexit
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

10. Polling: what is it, and how does it work?

Author:
Zain Mohyuddin and Rob Ford
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
If you’re on Twitter, listening to the radio or watching the news at any point this year, there’s one thing you’re sure to hear a lot about: polls. In the run up to a general election, commentators, politicians, indeed voters in general, are keen to know who the public is planning to vote for and why. Public opinion polling is generally accepted as the best way to find out. But as polling has become more popular – not to mention cheaper and easier to conduct – the amount of data available to us has ballooned. Numerous polling companies, all with their own methods and questions, run thousands of surveys a year, producing numbers that can sometimes be very different. But how can we tell which results to trust, and which to disregard? How are polls even conducted in the first place? And what’s this ‘MRP’ thing that I keep hearing people bang on about? These are all questions that this guide aims to answer.
Topic:
Politics, Public Opinion, Society, and Polls
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe