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11. Productivity and the Pandemic: ShortTerm Disruptions and Long-Term Implications

Author:
Klaas de Vries, Abdul Erumban, and Bart van Ark
Publication Date:
08-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
This paper analyses quarterly estimates of productivity growth at industry level for three advanced economies, France, the United Kingdom, and the United States, for 2020. We use detailed industry-level data to distinguish reallocations of working hours between industries from pure within-industry productivity gains or losses. We find that all three countries showed positive growth rates of aggregate output per hour in 2020 over 2019. However, after removing the effects from the reallocation of hours between low and high productivity industries, only the US still performed positively in terms of withinindustry productivity growth. In contrast, the two European economies showed negative within-industry productivity growth rates in 2020. While above-average digital-intensive industries outperformed belowaverage ones in both France and the UK, the US showed higher productivity growth in both groups compared to the European countries. Industries with medium-intensive levels of shares of employees working from home prior to the pandemic made larger productivity gains in 2020 than industries with the highest pre-pandemic work-from-home shares. The paper also experiments with US data on employment at county level by allocating within-industry productivity contributions for 2020 to urban, sub-urban and rural areas, showing that the contributions to within-industry productivity growth from manufacturing and other production industries in urban and sub-urban areas increased during the pandemic. Overall, after taking into account the productivity collapse in the hospitality and culture sector during 2020, productivity growth shows no clear deviation from the slowing pre-pandemic productivity trend. Future trends in productivity growth will depend on whether the favourable productivity gains (or smaller losses) in industries with above-average digital intensity will outweigh negative effects from the pandemic, in particular scarring effects on labour markets and business dynamics.
Topic:
Labor Issues, Work Culture, Pandemic, COVID-19, Productivity, and Digitalization
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, France, and United States of America

12. The Economics and Politics of Social Democracy: A Reconsideration

Author:
Servaas Storm
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
Questions about the decline of Social democracy continue to excite wide interest, even in the era of Covid-19. This paper takes a fresh look at topic. It argues that social democratic politics faces a fundamental dilemma: short-term practical relevance requires it to accept, at least partly, the very socio-economic conditions which it purports to change in the longer run. Bhaduri’s (1993) essay which analyzes social democracy’s attempts to navigate this dilemma by means of ‘a nationalization of consumption’ and Keynesian demand management, was written before the rise of New (‘Third Way’) Labor and before the Great Financial Crisis of 2007-8. This paper provides an update, arguing that New Labor’s attempt to rescue ‘welfare capitalism’ entailed a new solution to the dilemma facing social democracy based on an expansion of employment, i.e. an all-out emphasis on “jobs, jobs, jobs”. The flip-side (or social cost) of the emphasis on job growth has been a stagnation of productivity growth—which, in turn, has put the ‘welfare state’ under increasing pressure of fiscal austerity. The popular discontent and rise of ‘populist’ political parties is closely related to the failure of New Labor to navigate social democracy’s dilemma.
Topic:
Labor Issues, Democracy, Capitalism, Economic Growth, Welfare, Productivity, and Social Democracy
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

13. Using purchasing power parities to compare countries: Strengths and shortcomings

Author:
Patrick Honohan
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
Good international economic policy requires good comparative data on national economic performance. In May 2020, the World Bank published the latest comprehensive update of purchasing power parities (PPPs), as part of the International Comparison Program. Produced for 176 countries, these PPPs are used to convert data (especially GDP and other quantities based on national income accounts) from national currencies to a common basis in a way that is meaningful for economic analysis. PPP-adjusted data are essential because the distortions caused by sharp exchange rate movements are significant, especially for times of macroeconomic turbulence. The newly released PPP data contain fewer surprises than those published in previous updates and are an invaluable tool, but Honohan explains why PPPs should be used with caution and an understanding of their limitations. Apart from removing distortions caused by market exchange rate movements, PPPs remove the impact of other factors affecting relative prices, especially productivity differences, which Honohan argues should not be removed if one wishes to compare the overall economic size or strength of a country or region. Adjusting for productivity, he finds that the United States retains its position as the world’s largest economy for the time being, and the European Union (even without the United Kingdom) is just ahead of China.
Topic:
World Bank, Economic Growth, Currency, Data, and Productivity
Political Geography:
China, Europe, and United States of America

14. Sectoral reallocations, Real estate shocks, and productivity divergence in Europe

Author:
Fabien Tripier, Jérôme Héricourt, and Thomas Grjebine
Publication Date:
09-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII)
Abstract:
This paper investigates the role of sectoral reallocations in the divergence of productivity in Europe, based on a database for 33 sectors and 14 countries between 1995 and 2015. Using the contribution of sectoral productivity growth to Total Factor Productivity (TFP) at the country level, we highlight that variations in the relative size of sectors - less productive sectors growing relatively to more productive ones - have been at the origin of variable productivity losses in main European countries. Parallel to this divergence, European countries experienced heterogeneous real estate price dynamics, which took the form, in some economies, of massive boom-bust cycles. We investigate real estate shocks as a potential source of sectoral reallocations through a collateral mechanism. These shocks turn out to be a strong driver of productivity divergence between European countries.
Topic:
Economics, International Political Economy, Real Estate, and Productivity
Political Geography:
Europe

15. Immigration and Innovation

Author:
Michael Landesmann and Sandra Leitner
Publication Date:
12-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:
Do High-Skilled Third-Country (i.e. Non-EU) Migrants Contribute to Productivity Growth? In order to foster innovation and enhance economic development and growth, attracting skilled professionals from abroad has become an important policy goal in many economies, initiating a global race for talent. This paper looks at the private company sector in a group of 13 old EU Member States and examines the role of high-skilled third-country (HS-TC) migrants for innovation – as captured by real labour productivity and total factor productivity (TFP) growth – between 2004 and 2015. It utilises four different indicators of HS-TC migration and defines high skills in terms of either educational attainment (ISCED classification) or the skills required in an occupation (ISCO classification) which helps identify the presence of a jobs-skills mismatch for HS-TC migrants. Taking into account the endogenous nature of HS-TC migration, we find some selective evidence of a negative causal link between the share of HS‑TC migrants, on the one hand, and labour productivity and TFP growth, on the other. Furthermore, differences in the results for the ISCED- and ISCO-based skills measures point to a non-negligible jobs‑skills mismatch in terms of an over-representation of HS-TC migrants in lower productivity occupations. We also find that HS-TC migrants are relatively less productive than HS EU migrants. Results for selected individual industries are more mixed, with some industries even benefiting in productivity terms from a higher share of HS-TC migrant workers.
Topic:
Immigration, European Union, Economic Growth, Innovation, Labor Market, Productivity, and Skilled Labor
Political Geography:
Europe

16. The impact of institutional and Socio-Ecological Drivers on Activity at Older Ages

Author:
Aart Jan Riekhoff, Agnieszka Kaminska, Izabela Styczynska, and Maciej Lis
Publication Date:
11-2013
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
In the report, the authors present an insight of the socio-economic drivers of economic and noneconomic activity of persons 50+, as well as their ability to adopt to SET. Not only the labour market participation, but also social engagement, beliefs, education, religious activities and housework are studied. With the use of European Social Survey data they investigate the general level of the activity among people aged 50+ in Europe as well as the relation between various aspects of activity and general labour market performance. They obtain mixed results on the concomitance of non-market and labour-market activities. At the same time they check the role of personal traits as well as pull and push factors on prematurely leaving labour market in European countries. The differences among countries in terms of the results are confronted with the institutional characteristics of the countries. Finally, selected case studies of successful activation policies are presented.
Topic:
Social Policy, Social Services, Private Sector, Labor Market, and Productivity
Political Geography:
Europe