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41. The Era of the Gas Mega-Players

Author:
Nikos Tsafos
Publication Date:
09-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
Within 10 years, three exporters will tower over the global gas world: Russia, the United States, and Qatar. Other exporters—Norway, Australia, Canada—will remain big players, but their influence will be regional, not global. New entrants will emerge, and existing players will expand their presence, but no country will match the big three in scale, growth, and reach. China will meanwhile become the largest destination for gas, surpassing Japan in imports and closing in on Europe as a whole. These profound changes will rewire the gas system, making it more integrated and competitive. But the system may also allow these mega-players the opportunity to exercise market power, using levers at their disposal to influence prices and flows. Geopolitics might also weigh heavily as a possible driver of behavior or source of friction. The gas world will thus be pulled in three directions: more integration and competition, more efforts to exercise market power, and more geopolitics complementing and complicating market forces. The big question is which of these three competing forces will have a greater say in this new gas era.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Natural Resources, Gas, and Exports
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Middle East, North America, Qatar, and United States of America

42. The Great Troublemaker: Nord Stream 2 in Russia’s Foreign Energy Policy

Author:
Szymon Kardas
Publication Date:
01-2019
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Issues: Slovak Foreign Policy Affairs
Institution:
Slovak Foreign Policy Association
Abstract:
he main aim of the paper is to analyze the Nord Stream 2 project from the perspective of Russia’s foreign energy policy and strategic goals and interests of all stakeholders (the state, Gazprom and other Russian entities). While it is unclear whether the investment will bring economic benefits to Russia or to Gazprom alone, it is known that Moscow will derive a specific political dividend from it. By building a controversial gas pipeline, it has contributed to deepening divisions in the European Union and weakening the coherence of actions for a common energy policy. The Nord Stream 2 project is also presented as a case study describing different European approaches towards energy cooperation with Russia. Neoclassical realism has been adopted as the theoretical framework for the analysis. The paper includes basic facts regarding the history of the project and the key data concerning the pipeline.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Energy Policy, Natural Resources, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:
Russia and Europe

43. Brown Coal Mining in the Czech Republic – Lessons on the Coal Phase-out

Author:
Lukas Lehotsky and Mikulas Cernik
Publication Date:
01-2019
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Issues: Slovak Foreign Policy Affairs
Institution:
Slovak Foreign Policy Association
Abstract:
The article offers an overview of coal production policies in the Czech Republic – the third-largest coal consumer in the EU and a post-communist country struggling to take decisions over the future of the coal phase-out. It developed its phase- out policy in the early 1990s to address the destruction of the local environment. However, since then no steps have been taken in relation to phase-out. Instead, coal production stakeholders have attempted to maintain the coal lock-in and to reverse phase-out. The article begins by discussing the factors that have led to the ambiguity. It then places the discussion over the future of phase-out within the wider context of a just transition, and offers insights into the Czech case which may prove useful to other countries considering transitioning away from coal.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Natural Resources, Mining, Renewable Energy, and Coal
Political Geography:
Europe and Czech Republic

44. How International Oil Companies Could Assist Greece to Achieve the Sustainable Development Goals: A Conversation Starter

Author:
Alexandra Sdoukou, Andrea Tornaritis, and Perrine Toledano
Publication Date:
01-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
This policy paper wishes to be a timely contribution towards a fruitful debate among stakeholders; it urges International Oil Companies (IOCs) to examine how the critical Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) for Greece can be integrated into their core business so that the oil and gas industry can contribute to the country’s sustainable growth.
Topic:
Energy Policy, International Cooperation, Oil, Natural Resources, Gas, and Sustainable Development Goals
Political Geography:
Europe, Greece, and Mediterranean

45. In the Aegean, Energy Sustainability = Increased Security

Author:
Katerina Sokou and Aristotle Tziampiris
Publication Date:
10-2019
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Begin-Sadat Centre for Strategic Studies (BESA)
Abstract:
The challenging geography of Greece makes it hard for the country to take full advantage of its natural resources and expand its energy grid. Though it has doubled its share of renewables, it needs to redouble those efforts to reach the EU’s ambitious goal of covering a third of its energy needs from renewable sources by 2030. The Greek islands that have been at the forefront of the migration and refugee crises would particularly benefit from a targeted policy to reach that goal, as the transition would increase their energy security, reduce their energy costs, and diversify their economies. Greece has the potential to be a model of sustainability that would enhance the stability of the entire Eastern Med.
Topic:
Security, Climate Change, Energy Policy, Natural Resources, Refugee Crisis, and Sustainability
Political Geography:
Europe, Greece, and Mediterranean

46. What Can Protest Achieve?: The Case of the Fossil Fuel Divestment Campaign

Author:
Carl Death
Publication Date:
09-2019
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:
Can protest really make a difference? Can social movements change any- thing? Do campaigns like those for fossil fuel divestment rapidly snowballing across campuses, cities, churches, and institutional investors in North America, Europe, and elsewhere have any real impact on global political economies of energy? This article argues that the answer to all of these questions is a qualified “yes.” The fossil fuel divestment campaign is a specific manifestation of environ- mental protest, which, since emerging in 2011, has changed some things and has the potential to change others more profoundly.1 Considering the case of the fossil fuel divestment campaign in detail can illuminate important insights about the role of protest in contemporary global politics. Protest movements can impact the world, as evidenced by both the fossil fuel divestment campaign and longer histories of other divestment movements that have contributed to significant struggles for structural change.
Topic:
Climate Change, Economics, Natural Resources, Protests, Global Warming, and Fossil Fuels
Political Geography:
Europe and North America

47. Regards sur l’Eurasie - L'année politique 2018

Author:
Anne De Tinguy, Annie Daubenton, Olivier Ferrando, Sophie Hohmann, Jacques Lévesque, Nicolas Mazzuchi, Gaïdz Minassian, Thierry Pasquet, Tania Sollogoub, and Julien Thorez
Publication Date:
02-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales (CERI)
Abstract:
Regards sur l’Eurasie. L’année politique est une publication annuelle du Centre de recherches internationales de Sciences Po (CERI) dirigée par Anne de Tinguy. Elle propose des clefs de compréhension des événements et des phénomènes qui marquent de leur empreinte les évolutions d’une région, l’espace postsoviétique, en profonde mutation depuis l’effondrement de l’Union soviétique en 1991. Forte d’une approche transversale qui ne prétend nullement à l’exhaustivité, elle vise à identifier les grands facteurs explicatifs, les dynamiques régionales et les enjeux sous-jacents.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Corruption, Democratization, Economics, Health, International Security, Natural Resources, Conflict, Multilateralism, Europeanization, Political Science, and Regional Integration
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, Caucasus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Turkmenistan

48. Poland’s Energy Security Strategy

Author:
Zuzanna Samson
Publication Date:
01-2019
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:
Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:
Poland, as one of the European countries experiencing the most significant economic growth in recent years, permanently relies on coal power. There are plenty of reasons behind this condition, however, wanting to become one of the European leaders Poland ought to diversify its energy sources and lower the share of those harmful to the natural environment. Some changes have already been implemented, nevertheless the Polish government is mostly reluctant to diminish the role of coal mines. Moreover, the current actions taken to diversify sources of natural gas imports are dependent on Polish foreign policy and international alliances. The author analyzes changes in the Polish energy security strategy in recent years and compares them with provisions established during COP24. The article analyzes the Polish energy market with the share of individual sources and examines the possibility to increase the share of those alternative to coal in the near future.
Topic:
Security, Energy Policy, Natural Resources, Renewable Energy, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:
Europe and Poland

49. Advancing Natural Gas Reform in Ukraine

Author:
Sagatom Saha and Ilya Zaslavskiy
Publication Date:
12-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
A prerequisite for Ukraine’s economic and political success is reform of its energy sector. Enduring corruption and mismanagement in the energy sector have generated pernicious budget deficits, eroded sovereignty, jeopardized energy security, and limited economic potential. Although all post-Soviet states have encountered obstacles in transitioning to market economies, Ukraine has been remarkably slow to introduce market reforms, and its sclerotic energy sector is at the center of its economic dys- function. Even after the fall of the Soviet Union, the Orange Revolution, and nine International Mon- etary Fund (IMF) loans conditional on reform, Ukraine’s energy sector remains a drain on taxpayers, a playground for corrupt oligarchs, and an unattractive destination for international investment. However, Ukraine now has a small but important window of opportunity. The 2014 Euromaidan Revolution—the series of pro-European demonstrations that culminated in Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych’s removal—provided a mandate and framework for energy reform. Beginning in 2015, Ukraine moved to cut implicit subsidies on natural gas, adopted laws to restructure the state-owned oil and gas company Naftogaz, and halted imports of Russian gas. These advances are welcome news not only for Ukraine, but also for the United States. A prosper- ous and energy-secure Ukraine, capable of standing up to Russian interventionism, would advance U.S. foreign policy objectives in the region. Recognizing this, Washington already provides technical, financial, and military assistance to Kiev.1 The United States has focused particularly on encouraging Ukraine’s energy-sector reforms, last year tasking the State Department with promoting the country’s energy security with the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act. Unfortunately, Ukraine’s energy-sector reforms to date do not go far enough. To achieve lasting reform, Ukraine must curtail its population-wide subsidies, reinforce the independence of its energy regulator, and dismantle the monopolies that exist in every segment of the natural gas sector. The benefits that would result from these steps are manifold. End consumers would enjoy better energy services and lower prices; the domestic energy sector would create high-skilled jobs and boost eco- nomic output; and the government would secure new revenue streams that could bolster national priorities such as defense and social services. Further reforms in Ukraine’s energy sector could mean the difference between economic growth at the current sluggish rate of 2 percent and reaching 6 percent or more, which some experts suggest is possible.2 Ultimately, Ukraine will be the arbiter of its own success in energy-sector reform. But the United States can and should do more to help it achieve politically and technically complex reforms. Apply- ing greater diplomatic pressure, providing technical assistance, and offering targeted financial in- centives—and disincentives—could speed the pace of Ukraine’s reform efforts. The Donald J. Trump administration, which has not yet articulated a clear strategy toward the country, should place energy-sector reform at the center of its relationship with Ukraine. Doing so would constitute a low-risk, high-reward strategy for Washington to counter Moscow’s influence at the North Atlan- tic Treaty Organization (NATO) border without overcommitting to military options and antagoniz- ing Russia. Moreover, by helping Ukraine reform its energy sector, the Trump administration may create opportunities for trade in energy equipment and services, advancing its strategy of U.S. en- ergy dominance.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Natural Resources, Reform, and Gas
Political Geography:
Europe, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

50. Financing Energy Access in Sub-Saharan Africa

Author:
Nicola Bilotta and Lorenzo Colantoni
Publication Date:
12-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The electrification of Sub-Saharan Africa has traditionally suffered from a lack of adequate investments, given the scarcity of domestic funds and the higher regional risk perceived by foreign investors. And yet, electrification of the continent has accelerated lately, driven by innovative financing instruments that fit the African framework. Such tools as aggregation, securitization and guarantee instruments reduce risk premiums, thus increasing the attractiveness of the sector and making it easier for international institutions to provide back-up funding for private, local and decentralized projects. Critical in this regard has been Africa’s FinTech system, which enables forms of mobile payment and micro-credit access, resulting in innovative business models. Such sets of tools will be then fundamental to maintaining the current trends and, eventually, reach the long-awaited universal access to energy for those in Sub-Saharan Africa. Paper prepared in the framework of the IAI-Eni Strategic Partnership, December 2018.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, Natural Resources, Foreign Direct Investment, and Sustainable Development Goals
Political Geography:
Africa and Europe