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31. Belarus in the CES: Advantages and Disadvantages of Economic Integration

Author:
Anna Maria Dyner and Natalia Ryabova
Publication Date:
08-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Belarusian accession to the Common Economic Space (CES) was forced by two factors-the 2011 crisis and the necessity to gain cheap energy resources. Although Russia fulfilled its promises, decreasing gas and oil prices, Belarus is now feeling the negative results of the integration. According to CES rules, Belarusian authorities will have to tighten monetary policy, and reduce social spending and public financing of state-owned enterprises. The situation may be improved by foreign investments, but among the three CES countries, Belarus is the least attractive, especially since Russia joined the WTO and the because of the possible accession of Kazakhstan in the near future. Because of the need to carry out the major reforms in Belarus, the European Union has a greater chance to influence the situation in that country, for example by supporting modernisation projects.
Topic:
Development, Oil, Natural Resources, and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:
Europe and Asia

32. Energy and Politics: Behind the Scenes of the Nabucco-TAP Competition

Author:
Nicolò Sartori
Publication Date:
07-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The European Union launched the Southern Gas Corridor initiative with the twofold aim of strengthening the diversification of Europe's gas sources and transportation routes, and reducing the role of upstreamers in the European gas market. The clear preference expressed by the European Commission - the corridor's mastermind - for Nabucco was expected to weigh in heavily, allowing the EU-backed project to easily win the competition. However, other factors, beyond political support, ended up tilting the balance decisively in favour of Nabucco West's final rival, the Trans-Adriatic Pipeline (TAP). These do not include only the technical and commercial criteria set out by the Shah Deniz II consortium, but also more mundane considerations. Nabucco West' s complex organizational and decision-making procedures, the attractiveness of the exemption from Third Party Access (TPA) granted by the EU to TAP, and SOCAR's specific interest in the Greek market also influenced the consortium's final decision. An analysis of the Southern Gas Corridor competition suggests that when it comes to energy, political support and institutional involvement do not always represent the decisive element, and may be counterproductive at times.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Markets, Oil, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:
Europe

33. The Global Arctic: The Growing Arctic Interests of Russia, China, the United States and the European Union

Author:
Juha Käpylä and Harri Mikkola
Publication Date:
08-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
With exciting economic opportunities and serious environmental challenges, the Arctic is transforming and re-emerging as a geopolitically important region. Major global players within and without the Arctic are paying greater attention to the region. While Russia is a traditional Arctic state with significant economic and security interests in the region, China, the US and the EU have also expressed their Arctic interests more explicitly. They are keen to tap into the economic potential and have a say in the way the region becomes accessed, exploited and governed. As a result, the Arctic is no longer a spatially or administratively confined region, but is instead taking its new form in the midst of contemporary global politics. The globalization and economization of the Arctic will most likely downplay environmentalism and reduce the relative influence of the indigenous people and small Arctic states in Arctic affairs. Arctic governance is also likely to turn more complex and complicated as the economic and political stakes are raised.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Climate Change, Development, International Trade and Finance, Oil, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, China, and Europe

34. Renewables: do they matter for foreign policy?

Author:
Iana Dreyer
Publication Date:
06-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Union Institute for Security Studies
Abstract:
Energy has played an important role in the geopolitics of the 20th century and continues to do so today. But the politics of renewable energy has remained largely confined to national boundaries and has had few international ramifications. Is this set to change? What is and could be the role of renewables in European energy diplomacy?
Topic:
Security, Climate Change, Development, Energy Policy, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:
Europe

35. A Transatlantic Perspective on Natural Gas Security in Central and Southeastern Europe

Author:
David Koranyi
Publication Date:
10-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
The fundamentals of the natural gas sectors of the United States and European Union (EU) are on divergent paths. While the US prepares for gas exports on the back of the unconventional gas revolution, Europe is facing declining indigenous production and growing dependence on imports. The Central and Southeastern Europe (CSEE) region has moved closer to integrate into the EU's internal energy market, but it remains in a vulnerable position in the short-term compared to the rest of the EU and especially the US due to the region's historic exposure to Gazprom's monopolistic abuse. A concerted US, EU, and regional effort is needed to implement a diversification strategy, where US liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports could make a real difference. In the medium and long run, the region can benefit from and play a crucial role in Europe's gas supply diversification strategy and may even succeed in adapting the US unconventional experience, contributing to a healthier energy import balance on the continent.
Topic:
Economics, Energy Policy, Science and Technology, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, and North America

36. The Security of Cities: Ecology and Conflict on an Urbanizing Planet

Author:
Peter Engelke
Publication Date:
11-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Humankind recently crossed a historic threshold: over half of all human beings now live in cities. In contrast to most of human history, cities have become the default condition for human habitation almost everywhere on earth. Urbanization is proceeding rapidly and at unprecedented scales in Asia, Africa and the Middle East. These regions are poised to join Latin America, Europe, North America, and Australia as having more people living in cities than in rural areas. Between 2010 and 2050, the world's urban population is expected to grow by 3 billion people—a figure roughly equal to the world's total population in 1950—with the great majority living in developing-world cities.3 Our species, in other words, is already an urban one and will become even more so throughout this century.
Topic:
Demographics, Development, Environment, Natural Resources, Urbanization, and Developing World
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, Middle East, Asia, Latin America, Australia, and North America

37. Shale Gas and the EU Internal Gas Market: Beyond the Hype and Hysteria

Author:
Jonas Teusch
Publication Date:
09-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
This paper analyses the interplay between shale gas and the EU internal gas market. Drawing on data presented in the 2012 International Energy Agency's report on unconventional gas and additional scenario analyses performed by the Joint Research Centre, the paper is based on the assumption that shale gas will not fundamentally change the EU's dependence on foreign gas supplies. It argues that attention should be shifted away from hyping shale gas to completing the internal gas market. Two main reasons are given for this. First, the internal gas market is needed to enable shale gas development in countries where there is political support for shale gas extraction. And second, a well-functioning internal gas market would, arguably, contribute much more to Europe's security of supply than domestic shale gas exploitation. This has important implications for the shale gas industry. As it is hard to see how subsidies or exemptions from environmental legislation could be justified, shale gas development in Europe will only go ahead if it proves to be both economically and environmentally viable. It is thus up to the energy industry to demonstrate that this is the case.
Topic:
Security, Economics, Energy Policy, Environment, Natural Resources, and Famine
Political Geography:
Europe

38. The Geopolitics of Natural Gas

Author:
Amy Myers Jaffe and Meghan L. O'Sullivan
Publication Date:
07-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
Some of the most dramatic energy developments of recent years have been in the realm of natural gas. Huge quantities of unconventional US shale gas are now commercially viable, changing the strategic picture for the United States by making it self-sufficient in natural gas for the foreseeable future. This development alone has reverberated around the globe, causing shifts in patterns of trade and leading other countries in Europe and Asia to explore their own shale gas potential. Such developments are putting pressure on longstanding arrangements, such as oil-linked gas contracts and the separate nature of North American, European, and Asian gas markets, and may lead to strategic shifts, such as the weakening of Russia's dominance in the European gas market.
Topic:
Climate Change, Economics, Energy Policy, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:
Europe and Asia

39. The Imperial Peace in Colonial Africa and Africa's Underdevelopment

Author:
Robert H. Bates
Publication Date:
12-2012
Content Type:
Book
Institution:
Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
When praised at all, imperialism is most often commended for the peace it bestowed. By demobilizing armies, deposing marauding princes and subduing war-like states, European powers fashioned a half-century of political order. The question nonetheless arises: Should they be lauded for that? In this chapter, I view Africa's history through the lens of comparative history and argue that the imperial peace may have retarded Africa's development.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Imperialism, Post Colonialism, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:
Africa and Europe

40. Commission v. Gazprom: The antitrust clash of the decade?

Author:
Alan Riley
Publication Date:
10-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
It may well be that the Gazprom antitrust case launched by DG Competition on September 4th will turn out to be the landmark antitrust case of this decade, as Microsoft was of the last decade. The argument of this paper is that, for a host of political and economic reasons, this case is likely to be hard fought by both sides to a final prohibition decision and then onwards into the EU courts. In the process, the European gas market and the powers of DG Competition in the energy field are likely to be transformed.
Topic:
Economics, Markets, Natural Resources, and Law
Political Geography:
Europe