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651. Russia vs Georgia: The Fallout - Europe Report N°195

Publication Date:
08-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The Russia-Georgia conflict has transformed the contemporary geopolitical world, with large consequences for peace and security in Europe and beyond. Moscow's initial moves into South Ossetia as large-scale violence broke out there on 7-8 August were in part a response to a disastrous miscalculation by a Georgian leadership that was impatient with gradual confidence building and a Russian-dominated negotiations process. But Russia's disproportionate counter-attack, with movement of large forces into Abkhazia and deep into Georgia, accompanied by the widespread destruction of economic infrastructure, damage to the economy and disruption of communications and movement between different regions of the country, constitutes a dramatic shift in Russian-Western relations. It has undermined regional stability and security; threatened energy corridors that are vital for Europe; made claims with respect to ethnic Russians and other minorities that could be used to destabilise other parts of the former Soviet Union, with Ukraine a potential target; and shown disregard for international law.
Topic:
NATO, International Political Economy, and War
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Europe, Ukraine, Asia, Soviet Union, Moscow, Georgia, South Ossetia, and Abkhazia

652. Cyber War I: Estonia Attacked from Russia

Author:
Kertu Ruus
Publication Date:
01-2008
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
European Affairs
Institution:
The European Institute
Abstract:
Suddenly, the lights go out. Communication lines fall silent. Internet connections are lost. People venturing into the congested streets discover that banks are closed, ATMs are malfunctioning, traffic lights are jammed. Radio and TV stations cannot broadcast. The airports and train stations are shut down. Food production halts, and the water supply starts rapidly diminishing as pumps stop working. Looters are on the rampage; panic grips the public; the police cannot maintain order. This grim picture is not the opening scene of a Hollywood fantasy, but the beginning of a cyber attack, as described by Sami Saydjari, president of Professionals for Cyber Defense, to a Congressional homeland defense subcommittee in April 2007. In vivid terms, he described how a superpower can be reduced to third-world status by a cyber take-down of a nation's electronic infrastructure. The defense expert called his description “a plausible scenario” – and one for which the United States is unprepared. Even if military computer systems are usually protected against outside interference, most civilian electronic systems remain vulnerable to a massive assault that enjoyed the sponsorship of a state.
Topic:
Security, NATO, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Europe, and Estonia

653. NATO Caveats Can Be Made To Work Better for the Alliance

Author:
Robert E. Hunter
Publication Date:
01-2008
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
European Affairs
Institution:
The European Institute
Abstract:
The NATO allies are now being required to face the possibility that they may not prevail in Afghanistan. Facing new challenges from Taliban and Al Qaeda fighters, the Afghan government and the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) are by no means certain of success. Equally at risk are economic, political, and social developments to give the average Afghan a sense that supporting the government in Kabul and its ISAF allies is the best bet for the long haul. Militarily, NATO commanders have made it clear that they need more troops - at least two more combat brigades - and more helicopters. But they also need greater flexibility in the use of those forces that are available, and limitations here are posing difficulties at least as troubling as shortfalls in numbers.
Topic:
NATO and War
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, Europe, and Taliban

654. Faraway Afghanistan Brings Home Tensions Among Allies

Author:
James Leathers
Publication Date:
01-2008
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
European Affairs
Institution:
The European Institute
Abstract:
Fearing a stalemate in Afghanistan that would be tantamount to defeat for NATO, the Bush administration is browbeating the European allies to step up their military role.
Topic:
NATO and War
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, and Europe

655. Kosovo: It IS a Real Geopolitical Precedent

Author:
David Young
Publication Date:
01-2008
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
European Affairs
Institution:
The European Institute
Abstract:
Supporters of independence for Kosovo because of its painful recent history ignore the fact that Western indifference permitted a cycle of terrorism and repression. That is the real lesson.
Topic:
NATO, Democratization, Sovereignty, and International Affairs
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, Kosovo, and Balkans

656. Europe's Eastern Promise: Rethinking NATO and EU Enlargement

Author:
Ronald D. Asmus
Publication Date:
01-2008
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Foreign Affairs
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
After the Cold War, NATO and the EU opened their doors to central and Eastern Europe, making the continent safer and freer than ever before. Today, NATO and the EU must articulate a new rationale for enlarging still further, once again extending democracy and prosperity to the East, this time in the face of a more powerful and defiant Russia.
Topic:
NATO
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Eastern Europe

657. Georgia and Russia: Clashing over Abkhazia

Publication Date:
06-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
With the dispute between Georgia and Russia in a new, dangerously confrontational phase, the risk of war in the South Caucasus is growing. Concerned by NATO's plans for further extension to former Soviet republics and Kosovo's unilateral but Western-orchestrated independence, Russia has stepped up manipulation of the South Ossetia and Abkhazia conflicts. Georgia remains determined to restore its territorial integrity, and hawks in Tbilisi are seriously considering a military option. Both sides need to recognise the risks in current policies, cool their rhetoric and cease military preparations. Russia should cease undermining its peacekeeper and mediator roles and be open to a change of negotiating formats. Georgia should adopt a new approach to the Abkhaz, encouraging their links to the outside world to lessen dependence on Russia and emphasising incremental con­­fidence building to establish the mutual trust needed for successful negotiations. The U.S. and European Union (EU) should be firm and united in cautioning both Moscow and Tbilisi against military adventures.
Topic:
International Relations, NATO, and International Political Economy
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Asia, Soviet Union, Kosovo, Georgia, and Tbilisi

658. European and American Roles in Nation-Building

Author:
James Dobbins
Publication Date:
12-2008
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The International Spectator
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Contrary to popular belief, the number of conflicts and the number of casualties, refugees and displaced persons resulting from them has fallen dramatically since the end of the Cold War. Previously, with neither superpower wanting a dispute to be settled to its disadvantage, conflicts dragged on indefinitely or were permanently frozen. After 1989, dynamics changed and international interventions began to pursue more far-reaching objectives: to disarm combatants, promote civil society, restore the economy, etc. Nation-building thus replaced inter-positional peacekeeping as the dominant form of international intervention with such missions becoming larger, longer and more frequent. The UN's success rate, as measured in enhanced security, economic growth, return of refugees and installation of representative governments meets or exceeds that of NATO- and EU-led missions in almost every category. It is time, therefore, for Western governments, militaries and populations to get over their disappointment at the UN's early failures and begin once again to do their fair share in these efforts.
Topic:
NATO, Cold War, and Government
Political Geography:
America and Europe

659. Threats from Within: Four Challenges Inside the NATO Alliance

Author:
Julianne Smith and Michael Williams
Publication Date:
09-2008
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The International Spectator
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Common wisdom is that NATO's future hinges solely on the outcome of the International Security Assistance Force mission in Afghanistan. While the state of Afghanistan will impact the future of the Alliance for better or for worse, it will not be the sole or even primary factor to influence the future of NATO. In many ways, Afghanistan has become an excuse for the Alliance to ignore some of the in-built problems of the organisation. The allies' inability to define clearly the nature of the Alliance and its core missions, a lack of capability and poor funding, topped off by exceedingly weak and troubled relations with other international organisations, particularly the European Union, all pose significant challenges that the alliance must address to remain relevant, coherent, and equipped to engage effectually in future operations.
Topic:
Security and NATO
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Europe

660. Sword or Ploughshare? New Roles for NATO and the Changing Nature of Transatlantic Relations

Author:
Olaf Theiler
Publication Date:
02-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies
Abstract:
The Western community is currently experiencing “a defining moment of international relations” as it undergoes one of its biggest and most severe crises. Some authors are already speaking of the “end of the West,” while others see chances for its rebirth. As the institutional epitome of transatlantic relations, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization has always been the most important yardstick for gauging their state. It is now once again at the center of the crisis. During the Cold War, NATO and hence the transatlantic partnership were based on three central elements: Firstly, a shared direct existential threat, which applied equally to all Western states; secondly, a broad base of common values, standards and convictions; and thirdly, a division of labor and system of burden and risk-sharing that were born of necessity. As the biggest military and economic power, the U.S. assumed a dominant role as 'primus inter pares' in the transatlantic alliance, which the weaker European partners voluntarily joined without becoming completely subordinate.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, NATO, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
United States and Europe