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241. ¿Un buen aliado? Análisis de la visión estadounidense sobre el rol español en la OTAN

Author:
Juan Tovar
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
Institution:
International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:
Estados Unidos es el actor más relevante dentro de la OTANy ha condicionado la participación española en la organizacióndesde su ingreso. El artículo analiza desde la perspectiva estadounidense la participación española en la OTAN. Para ello se centra en diferentes factores como serían las declaraciones públicas de los dirigentes estadounidenses en las reuniones bilaterales,la posición de la opinión pública estadounidensey el análisis de diversos objetos de debate como el gasto en defensa, los activos estratégicos españoles, su participación en las diferentes misiones implementadas por la organizacióny la posición española en asuntos y regiones de interéspara Estados Unidos. A pesar de lasdeclaraciones de los líderes estadounidenses sobre el rol españoly la imagen positiva de Españaen la opinión pública estadounidense, se constata un importante margen para su mejora.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, NATO, Public Opinion, and Defense Spending
Political Geography:
Europe, Spain, North America, and United States of America

242. 40 años dela pertenencia de España a la OTAN: desafíos pasados y futuros de una relación procelosa

Author:
Michele Testoni and Alberto Bueno
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
Institution:
International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:
Este artículo explicalos elementos fundamentales de la relación entreEspaña y la OTAN en vista de su 40 aniversario de pertenencia a la Alianza Atlántica.El texto, tanto en su reconstrucción histórica como en su análisis de los desafíos quecaracterizan la postura española en la organización, pretende examinar tres elementosvertebradores de esta relación: la posición ambigua de las élites y la sociedad españolarespecto a la pertenencia a la OTAN y la relación con EEUU; la naturaleza legalista ymultilateral, con un explicita preferencia porla UE, de la política de defensa nacional;yla complejidad del “frente sur”, es decir, el sistema de múltiples y diferentes amenazasa la seguridad deEspañaprocedentes denorte de África, donde la OTAN tiene problemas para dar una respuesta satisfactoria. El artículoconcluye subrayando la inusual relevancia, para una potencia media como España, delos factores domésticos para determinar tanto la postura internacional del país como losaspectos principales de su doctrina militar.
Topic:
NATO, Military Affairs, and Multilateralism
Political Geography:
Europe, Spain, and United States of America

243. Crisis and Bargaining Over Ukraine: A New US-Russia Security Order?

Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
The Harriman Institute
Abstract:
As Russian troops have amassed on Ukraine's border, talks aimed at resolving the standoff between Russia and NATO appear to have collapsed. Poland's Foreign Minister warned that "it seems that the risk of war in the OSCE area is now greater than ever before in the last 30 years." Russia has been seeking a new European security agreement that would include formal binding pledges to limit NATO's expansion and military activities across Eastern Europe. US and NATO officials respond that they will not give up on NATO's principles, especially its "open door" policy towards membership. Ukrainians are bracing for a renewed conflict amidst domestic political turmoil. Are the Russian and Western positions irreconcilable? How did we get to the brink of another conflict? And how would a Russian-Ukrainian war affect Russian and Ukrainian domestic politics? How would it impact Ukrainian identity and foreign policy goals?
Topic:
Defense Policy, NATO, Regional Cooperation, and Military Strategy
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

244. The Parallels of Russian Bellicosity in the Balkans in the Example of Ukraine

Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
The Harriman Institute
Abstract:
Just last month, the Russian Ambassador to Bosnia and Herzegovina issued issued a startling threat to the Bosnian government’s aspirations to join NATO. “Bosnia and Herzegovina have the right to decide whether to be a member of NATO, but Moscow reserves the right to respond to such an opportunity,” he said. Russia warned Bosnia and Herzegovina that it could be the Kremlin's next target following Ukraine. This is not the first time Russia has threatened Bosnia. The parallels to Russia’s threats to Ukraine are unerringly uncanny. Bosnia’s significance to Western powers and to Russia stems from the same fact: The country is located squarely at the intersection of NATO and Russian influence. The West recognizes some of the potential Bosnia could have if it were brought into the NATO bloc, but seems not to understand the ramifications of the country slipping into Kremlin-induced disarray. For its part, Russia is just being consistent: Just as it unsuccessfully attempted to prevent Montenegro and North Macedonia from joining NATO, so too is it trying to halt Bosnian aspirations toward the same goal. Bosnia and threatened Balkan states North Macedonia and Montenegro remain fragile to Russian manipulation of its proxies in all of these countries and in the Balkan neighborhood.
Topic:
Defense Policy, NATO, Regional Cooperation, Military Strategy, and Hegemony
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Bosnia and Herzegovina

245. Reconfiguring NATO: The Case for Burden Shifting

Author:
Rajan Menon
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Defense Priorities
Abstract:
This explainer begins by recounting how an American-led NATO, a key element in U.S. global primacy, lived on despite the collapse of the Soviet Union, the threat it was meant to deter—and, if necessary, defeat. The next section highlights the implicit bargain that has sustained NATO: U.S. preponderance in Europe, achieved by the American willingness to serve as the continent’s indispensable protector, in exchange for Europeans’ freedom to spend more on butter and less on guns. Next comes a set of proposals to move NATO from burden sharing, a perennial point of contention within the pact, to a more far-reaching change, burden shifting, an idea that the Russian invasion of Ukraine has made even more feasible and prudent. The explainer concludes by assaying the prospects for burden shifting and challenging prominent counterarguments.
Topic:
Defense Policy, NATO, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and United States of America

246. NATO Allies’ geopolitical diversity and the cohesion of the Alliance

Author:
Thierry Tardy
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
NATO Defense College
Abstract:
The Russia-Ukraine war has revealed a high degree of cohesion among NATO Allies, who largely converge on what the Alliance is about and how it should respond to the Russian threat. In the longer- term, though, NATO’s cohesion will be dependent on Allies’ success in knitting together a common vision from their varying strategic cultures and threat assessments. And indeed, from the United States’ global reach and first-class military to France’s strategic autonomy imperative and the UK’s renewed ambition for ‘Global Britain’; from the Baltic states’ and Poland’s geographical proximity to Russia, to Italy’s and Spain’s regional southern focus; and from Türkiye’s special defence and foreign policy posture to Germany’s Zeitenwende, the Atlantic Alliance brings together a wide range of geopolitical diversity. This Policy Brief draws on a study conducted by the author1 to build a typology of NATO Allies based on three sets of variables: the nature of the relationship between any given Ally and the United States; the Ally’s perception of the Russian threat; and the extent to which NATO is given exclusivity in the Ally’s defence policy. Against this backdrop, Allies can be classified into three groupings that reveal persistent fault lines running through the Alliance, making cohesion a permanent challenge.
Topic:
NATO, Geopolitics, Alliance, Diversity, Russia-Ukraine War, and Cohesion
Political Geography:
Europe and North America

247. Finland and Sweden in NATO: the potential of new security providers

Author:
Hanna Ojanen
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
NATO Defense College
Abstract:
Finland and Sweden’s accession to NATO is occurring at an accelerated pace. In January 2022, neither government was considering NATO membership; in May 2022, they moved decisively into the application process. In response, NATO member states have rush processed their membership, with most NATO countries ratifying Accession Protocols. In November 2022, they are a mere two ratifications short of membership. Both Finland and Sweden are sending a strong message to Allies and Russia by joining NATO without preconditions as already active contributors and security providers within the Alliance. For its part, NATO would not only gain two new member states but also a new regional subgroup of Nordic countries that have their own perspectives and strategic cultures. Moreover, Finland and Sweden will bring a model for bilateral defence cooperation.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, NATO, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Europe, Finland, and Sweden

248. Russia’s military after Ukraine: down but not out

Author:
Łukasz Kulesa(ed.)
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
NATO Defense College
Abstract:
The June 2022 Madrid Summit decided on the next steps in enhancing the Alliance’s deterrence posture, describing Russia as “the most significant and direct threat to Allies’ security and to peace and stability in the Euro-Atlantic area”.1 The poor performance of the Russian forces in the first months of their war against Ukraine and the scale of casualties and material losses they suffered should however prompt further reflection about Russia’s ability to recover and challenge NATO militarily. If the Russian military seems unable to prevail over Ukrainian forces (supported by a number of NATO countries), it may reasonably be asked whether unrolling “the biggest overhaul of our collective defence and deterrence since the end of the Cold War”2 is justified. This Policy Brief argues that NATO’s goals to shore up the Eastern flank are indeed warranted for three reasons – Russia’s political will to claim a victory, evidence of learning from past mistakes, and the existing Russian industrial capacity. In fact, the Russian military will probably experience a relatively speedy recovery. With the caveat that much is contingent on day-to-day developments and the ultimate outcome of the war, it is also plausible that Russia will “build back better” rather than simply rebuild a military which has proven to be ill-prepared for the operation against Ukraine.
Topic:
Defense Policy, NATO, Deterrence, Russia-Ukraine War, and Madrid Summit
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

249. WEER 2022 | Still Without Peace (Full Issue)

Author:
Mykola Riabchuk, Olga Brusylovska, Iryna Bohinska, Julien Théron, and Anna Menshenina
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Warsaw East European Review (WEER)
Institution:
Centre for East European Studies, University of Warsaw
Abstract:
“Still without Peace” was the title and the motto of the annual Warsaw East European conferences held in July 1-2, 2022 at the University of Warsaw under the auspices of the Center for East European Studies and with the support of the Polish Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The Russian war in Ukraine has largely determined the topics of that conference as well as the content of this issue of the Warsaw East European Review, partly though not exclusively based on the conference presentations. From the scholarly point of view, Ukraine has been always a bit of puzzle – partly because it was chronically understudied for years if not centuries insofar as it did not exist on the most of the mental and geographic maps, but also because many processes and phenomena in the ‘newborn’ country did not fit the established analytical paradigms, let alone the dogmas of the Russian ‘Imperial knowledge’ adopted uncritically in the West. This is why so many Westerners, including scholars and politicians, were so stunned by the sudden collapse of the Soviet Union (that had never been seen and named as ‘empire’), and probably even more surprised lately at Ukraine’s spectacular resilience under Russian all-out military invasion. In spite of the gloomy predictions and expectations, the country that had been broadly described as corrupt, dysfunctional, and internally deeply divided, appeared quite strong, institutionally robust and consolidated by civic patriotism. Ten months of the bloody, horrendous war have not brought any signs of breakdown of Ukrainian state or society. On the contrary, Ukrainians of all social brands seem to rally around the flag, united as never before. And all the state institutions, despite the persistent stress, duly provide all the services, probably even better than before the war. Why did this happen (rather than the opposite) is a big question that requires the study of many interrelated factors in their synergic interaction. The papers presented at the Warsaw East European Conference and partly collected in this volume, shed some light at the problem, in particular Anna Menshenina’s study of “Transformation of socio-political values in Ukraine: from gaining its independence till the outbreak of full-scale war”. But the problem remains too broad, multifaceted and complicated, and definitely requires further examination. Four articles of this volume examine various aspects of the ongoing war – starting from the origins of Putin’s obsession with the ‘Ukrainian question’ explored in Mykola Riabchuk’s essay, and from the early attempts to impose a disastrous implementation of Minsk agreements upon the Ukrainian government, scrutinized by Iryna Bohinska, – to the remarkable peculiarities of the Russian hybrid warfare against Ukraine, featured by Julien Théron, and to the venomous propagandistic campaigns staged by Russia against Ukraine on a global scale, as presented in a detailed case study by Oksana Nesterenko. Global ramifications of the Russian war in Ukraine and some scenarios for the future are considered in Olga Brusylovska’s article; and the cultural and political activity of displaced Belarusians in the post-war West Germany is attentively discussed by Anastasiya Ilyina. It may slightly fall out of the main topic of this volume, but it may resonate with today’s problems of Ukrainian refugees and internally displaced persons and keep, in a broader sense, all the East European nations on our radar. The Russian war in Ukraine is most likely to dominate in both the WEEC panels and the WEER pages next year but we encourage our international colleagues to explore Eastern Europe as alive and dynamic body, where various parts are interconnected and interdependent.
Topic:
International Relations, NATO, History, Displacement, Negotiation, Armed Conflict, Russia-Ukraine War, Invasion, Arms Sales, and Warfare
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

250. ‘Now or Never’: The Immediate Origins of Putin’s Preventative War on Ukraine

Author:
Geoffrey Roberts
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Military and Strategic Studies
Institution:
Centre for Military, Security and Strategic Studies
Abstract:
President’s Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 was a classic case of preventative war decision-making. The public record shows that Putin went to war to prevent Ukraine becoming such a powerful NATO bridgehead on Russia’s borders that Kyiv would seek to forcibly regain control of Crimea and the Donbass. Putin foresaw a future war not just with Ukraine but with NATO and the assessed the risks to Russia of an immediate conflict were lower than the medium and long-term threat. The danger of Ukraine becoming a nuclear-armed state also had an important bearing on his final decision for war, as did his perception of the ultra-nationalist Kyiv government as an implacably ‘anti-Russia’ regime.
Topic:
NATO, Vladimir Putin, Armed Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine