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1. Greater than the Sum of its Parts?: How does Austria Profit from a Widening Network of EU Free Trade Agreements?

Author:
Julia Grübler and Oliver Reiter
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:
Political debates and economic analyses often focus on single free trade agreements and their potential economic effects on participating trading partners. This study contributes to the literature by shedding light on the significance of trade agreements in the context of countries’ positions in worldwide trade agreement networks, by combining network theory with gravity trade modelling. We illustrate, both numerically and graphically, the evolution of the global web of trade agreements in general, and the network of the European Union specifically, accounting for the geographical and temporal change in the depth of agreements implemented. Gravity estimations for the period 1995-2017 distinguish the direct bilateral effects of trade agreements from indirect effects attributable to the scope of trade networks and countries’ positions therein.
Topic:
Economics, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, Treaties and Agreements, Profit, and Models
Political Geography:
Europe and Austria

2. Does Asymmetric Nonlinear Approach Explain the Relationship Between Exchange Rate and Trade of Iran?

Author:
Mahdi Ghodsi, Mohammad Sharif Karimi, and Robert Stehrer
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:
Until 2012, the Central Bank of Iran (CBI) used its policy rate to stabilise the rial’s exchange rate and, given a persistent current-account surplus, had accumulated sizeable currency reserves. In 2012, however, international sanctions against Iran intensified and the value of the rial halved against the US dollar. Since then Iran has followed a dual interest rate policy, with both a market rate and an official rate applied by the CBI to major imports. In recent years, as sanctions have cut access to foreign reserves, the gap between the two rates has widened substantially. Given these important changes in the exchange rate regime, this paper investigates the impact of the real exchange rate on the trade balance in Iran over the period 1997-2017. For this purpose, an asymmetric model is used, as the speed of the effects of changes in the exchange rate can be asymmetric. The results of the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model (NARDL) indicate that this is indeed the case. Results are generally consistent with the Marshall-Lerner condition: an exchange rate depreciation improves the trade balance, whereas an appreciation worsens it. However, the trade balance reacts more strongly in the short run to depreciations of the rial than to appreciations. Although the government could easily improve the trade balance in the short run through currency depreciation, policymakers should in the longer run promote non-oil exports to reduce dependency on oil and to diversify the economy.
Topic:
Economics, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, Exchange Rate Policy, Central Bank, and Models
Political Geography:
Europe and Iran

3. Model Changes of Polish Public Administration and Processes of Political and Structural Transformation

Author:
Agnieszka Lipska-Sondecka
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:
Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:
The model transformations of Polish public administration after 1989 were the result of the necessary and inevitable consequence of events related to erosion and the collapse of the „real socialism” system. Its internal decomposition, as a result of social reality inadequacy, created a situation in which it was possible to undertake deep systemic reforms in Poland. Democratization of the government system in Poland was an extremely complex process generating numerous problems and showing the scale of adversity in all spheres of social life. All political and structural changes in Poland after 1989 were also possible due to propitious external, international conditions. Especially the collapse of the USSR brought certain possibilities for Poland and other countries in Central and Eastern Europe to regain full sovereignty, which was later expressed in membership in NATO, the Council of Europe, and then European Union accession. As a result of the systemic and political transformation process, the administration has become an extremely important cell in the democratic legal order and the entity responsible for the implementation of a significant part of public tasks at the local, supra-local and regional levels.
Topic:
Infrastructure, Governance, Social Services, Models, and Public Service
Political Geography:
Europe and Poland

4. The Issue of Ideological Changes in the Context of the Polish Political Parties - Theoretical Models and Their Exemplifications

Author:
Michal Niebylski
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:
Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:
The article aims to present and discuss five theoretical models explaining the issue of ideological changes in Polish political parties. The paper is to shed light on an ideology’s dynamic nature and the process of building ideology in the political parties’ environment. The article features a discussion on the circumstances favoring the implementation of ideological changes and the methods used by parties to implement changes in their ideologies. The paper adopts two research hypotheses: 1) party ideologies are developed and modified by political parties in response to the changing (social, political, economic) circumstances in the inter-party rivalry. 2) The process of ideological changes serves political parties to lead an effective inter-party rivalry. The paper establishes that the factors with scientifically documented impact on party behavior in ideological terms are as follows: electoral result (parties that achieved a result below their expectations are more eager to revise their ideologies), political competition’s activity (parties react to ideological changes of their direct rivals), electorate preferences (political forces can change their approach in crucial issues to reflect the dominant views in their electorates) and acceptance of free-market principles by the main political actors. An analysis of Polish parties’ behaviors and the gathered source material also demonstrates that the parties’ inclination to implement ideological changes depends on organizational factors.
Topic:
Politics, Ideology, Models, and Party System
Political Geography:
Europe and Poland