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171. Lessons from Reforms in Central and Eastern Europe in the Wake of the Global Financial Crisis

Author:
Anders Åslund
Publication Date:
04-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
The response of the ten new eastern members of the European Union to the global financial crisis has valuable lessons of crisis resolution for the euro area. These countries were severely hit by the crisis in the fall of 2008 and responded with extensive reforms. Crisis made the unthinkable possible. This paper outlines the main reform measures that the ten Central and East European (CEE) countries carried out. It then quantifies to what extent the CEE countries resolved the macroeconomic crisis and explores the effects of the reforms on future growth prospects. The fourth and major section discusses how the political economy of the crisis resolution actually worked. Finally, the author examines what lessons euro area countries can learn from the crisis resolution of the newest members of the European Union.
Topic:
Debt, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Political Economy, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe

172. The European Union and Brazil as Privileged Partners? Difficult Path to an Authentic Strategic Partnership

Author:
Bartlomiej Znojek
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Dilma Rousseff took over the presidency of Brazil a year ago. Her government's policy has been marked by a general continuity of the directions set during President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's tenure (2003–2010). The largest Latin American country keeps growing economically and improving in social indicators, and at the same time is gaining ground as an increasingly influential global player.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
America, Europe, and Brazil

173. Financial Reform after the Crisis: An Early Assessment

Author:
Nicolas Véron
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
This paper aims to take stock of global efforts towards financial reform since the start of the financial crisis in 2007–08, and to provide a synthetic (if simplified) picture of their status as of January 2012. Underlying dynamics are described and analyzed both at the global level (particularly G-20, IMF, and FSB) and in individual jurisdictions, as well as the impact the crisis has had on these regions. The possible next steps of financial reform are then reviewed, including: the ongoing crisis management in Europe, the new emphasis on macroprudential approaches, the challenges posed by globally integrated financial firms, the implementation of harmonized global standards, and the links between financial systems and growth.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Global Recession, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe

174. The Coming Resolution of the European Crisis

Author:
C. Fred Bergsten and Jacob Funk Kirkegaard
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Doom and gloom about the euro abounds. An increasing number of commentators and economists, including here at the Peterson Institute, have begun to question whether the common currency can survive.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Political Economy, Regional Cooperation, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe

175. The political economy of the fisheries sector in Uganda: ruling elites, implementation costs and industry interests

Author:
Fred Muhumuza, Anne Mette Kjær, Mesharch Katusiimeh, and Tom Mwebaze
Publication Date:
02-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
This paper sets out to explain policies, implementation arrangements and results (PIRs) in Uganda's fisheries sector. Industry actors wanted to be able to keep up with European standards in order to survive in the chilled and frozen fillet export industry. They put pressure on ruling elites to support the establishment of effective hygiene and testing procedures. This helped the fishing industry succeed to an extent that helped create interests in the status quo. Fishermen, their dependents, and the fish processors all wanted to maintain a high level of fish catches. It was politically costly for ruling elites to enforce fisheries management because strict enforcement was unpopular with fishermen, as well as with many fishermen and security agents who benefitted from illegal fishing. Therefore, the success was not maintained: a pocket of efficiency was established with regard to hygiene and testing, but not with regard to enforcing fisheries management. Overfishing and the near collapse of the fishing sector were the results.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Government, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, Poverty, and Social Stratification
Political Geography:
Uganda, Africa, and Europe

176. Africa: open for business The potential, challenges and risks

Publication Date:
02-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
Africa is drawing increasing attention, not only from the perspective of businesses based in China and Europe, but also from operators in Africa itself. In particular, closer economic ties between Africa and China have been covered extensively by the media recently—with fairly mixed reviews. This paper highlights the potential, challenges and risks for doing business in Africa over the next few years.
Topic:
Development, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Foreign Aid, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
Africa, China, and Europe

177. Fit for Purpose? The European External Action Service one year on

Author:
Steven Blockmans, Natalia Alonso, and Tidhar Wald
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
The first anniversary of the European External Action Service (EEAS) finds the European Union (EU) in the midst of an economic, financial, and identity crisis that has aggravated the ongoing decline in Europe's stature on the global scene as new political and economic actors emerge. The new diplomatic service provides the EU with an opportunity to address its shortcomings in foreign policy by bringing greater coherence to external policy making; by enhancing consistency across EU instruments; and by adopting a more comprehensive and strategic approach to global challenges.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Europe

178. Stepping up Growth Policies

Author:
Stefano Micossi
Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
The eurozone is in recession and will show negative growth in 2012; GDP will fall sharply in Greece and Portugal, and there is substantial risk that Spain and Italy will follow suit (the Commission's recent forecasts seem overly optimistic and complacent; the IMF is more downbeat). But fiscal policies are uniformly restrictive throughout the eurozone and much of the Union, and the hopes that fiscal consolidation could spur growth by improving household and business confidence are not materialising. In reality, domestic demand has been hit too hard by fiscal consolidation, and investment throughout the Union remains well below pre- crisis levels. Credit is tight due to the deteriorating quality of borrowers and the ongoing deleveraging in banking.
Topic:
Economics, Foreign Exchange, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe and Greece

179. Eschewing Choice: Ukraine's Strategy on Russia and the EU

Author:
Elena Gnedina and Evghenia Sleptsova
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
Ukraine has long been castigated for its noncommittal attitude to cooperation with the EU, this being part of its 'multi-vector' foreign policy. Such a policy was widely attributed to the failings of domestic elites, which delay reform for fear of losing rents and power. This CEPS Working Document suggests, however, that the recent setback in EU-Ukraine relations highlights more complex reasons behind this. First, it asserts that a pro-European vector is not a self-evident choice for Ukraine, which is economically interdependent with both Russia and the EU. Second, it finds that the economic crisis has made the EU less attractive in the short term. In good times business was looking to Europe for opportunities to develop. But in times of crisis, it is looking to Russia for cheap resources to survive. Despite these unfavourable short-term trends, the authors conclude that an association agreement with the EU stands out as the only alternative that promises to put the shaky Ukrainian economy back on track towards long-term sustainable economic growth.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

180. The EU's Conditionality Policy: A New Strategy to Achieve Compliance

Author:
Fabienne Zwagemakers
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Through the inclusion of human rights and democracy clauses in the trade and association agreements of its common external trade policy, the European Union seeks to promote and transmit the values of human rights, democracy, and the rule of law globally. However, trade partners from the developing world often feel that these clauses offend their national sovereignty, and sometimes resort to alternative agreements offered by countries notorious for cutting corners. This working paper offers an assessment of the motives for non-compliance and sketches out how the EU could engender compliance. The paper concludes that there is a pivotal role to be played by education, civil society, business, and political parties in the nexus between economic growth, democracy, and the respect for human rights. The EU must target these factors directly, as they largely determine the domestic enforcement of HR clauses. In addition, the EU should develop a human rights strategy coordinated with global, regional, and local actors.
Topic:
Democratization, Human Rights, International Trade and Finance, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Europe, India, and Sri Lanka