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151. World Trade 1970-2010: Globalisation, Regionalisation and Reallocation

Author:
Arne Melchior
Publication Date:
08-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Using data for more than 200 countries, split into nine regions, we study world trade in goods during 1970-2010. The largest changes are the declining relative importance of Western Europe, and the increasing role for Asia. The intra-regional trade of Asia grew particularly fast; from 4 to 16% of world trade. Due to growing intra-regional trade in Europe and Asia, world trade became more intra-regional until 1995. Manufacturing trade is more regionalised, whereas commodity trade is more globalised. After 1995, extra-regional trade flows grew faster so there was “globalisation” with trade travelling longer distances and a rising share for commodities. From 2000, smaller trade regions such as Africa and Latin America have increased their shares of world trade; reversing the trend over the 30 preceding years.
Topic:
Globalization, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Regional Cooperation, and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Europe, Asia, and Western Europe

152. Flexicurity in Italy – how far is Rome from Copenhagen?

Author:
Ilaria Maselli
Publication Date:
09-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
The recently approved labour market reform in italy is clearly inspired by the danish flexicurity model. However, despite the noble intention and some improvements, the reform is failing to bring the long- hoped-for change, especially regarding the dualisation of the labour market and the universalisation of welfare provision.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Regional Cooperation, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe and Italy

153. Unleashing Competition in EU Business Services

Author:
Henk L.M. Kox
Publication Date:
09-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
In most EU member states, the business services industry has booked no productivity growth during the last two decades. The industry's performance in the other member states was weaker than that of its US counterparts. Exploring what may be causing this productivity stagnation, this policy brief reports that weak competition has contributed to the continuing malaise in European business services. The study analyzed the persistence (over time) of firm-level inefficiencies. The evidence further suggests that competition between small firms and large firms in business services is weak. Markets for business services work best in countries with flexible regulation on employment change and with low regulatory costs for firms that start up or close down a business. Countries that are more open to foreign competition perform better in terms of competitive selection and productivity.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

154. Banking Union: A federal model for the European Union with prompt corrective action

Author:
Stefano Micossi, Jacopo Carmassi, and Carmine Di Noia
Publication Date:
09-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
The European Commission has published its proposals for the transfer of supervisory responsibilities to the European Central Bank (ECB), under Article 127(6) of the TFEU, providing a comprehensive and courageous 'first step' towards a European banking Union, the other steps being European deposit insurance and resolution procedures. However, on a number of issues the Commission's chosen path raises questions that should be brought out in the open and fully recognized before final deliberation by the Council.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:
Europe

155. A European Deposit Insurance and Resolution Fund - An Update

Author:
Daniel Gros and Dirk Schoenmaker
Publication Date:
09-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
Cross-border banking is currently not stable in Europe. Cross-border banks need a European safety net. Moreover, a truly integrated European level banking system may help to break the diabolical loop between the solvency of the domestic banking system and the fiscal standing of the national sovereign.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:
Europe

156. Public and Private Regulation: Mapping the Labyrinth

Author:
Andrea Renda and Fabrizio Cafaggi
Publication Date:
10-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
Private governance is currently being evoked as a viable solution to many public policy goals. However, in some circumstances it has shown to produce more harm than good, and even disastrous consequences as in the case of the financial crisis that is raging in most advanced economies. Although the current track record of private regulatory schemes is mixed, policy guidance documents around the world still require that policy-makers give priority to self-and co-regulation, with little or no additional guidance being given to policymakers to devise when, and under what circumstances, these solutions can prove viable from a public policy perspective. With an array of examples from several policy fields, this paper approaches regulation as a public-private collaborative form and attempts to identify possible policy tools to be applied by public policy-makers to efficiently and effectively approach private governance as a solution, rather than a problem. We propose a six-step theoretical framework and argue that IA techniques should: i) define an integrated framework including both the possibility that private regulation can be used as an alternative or as a complement to public legislation; ii) involve private parties in public IAs in order to define the best strategy or strategies that would ensure achievement of the regulatory objectives; and iii) contemplate the deployment of indicators related to governance and activities of the regulators and their ability to coordinate and solve disputes with other regulators.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Europe

157. Poland: Industry Forecast

Publication Date:
08-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
GDP is expected to rise by 2.6% in 2012 and expand by 2.7% in 2013. Over the next 10 years to 2021, GDP is predicted to grow on average by 3.2% a year. Manufacturing output growth is forecast to be higher than GDP growth over the next decade. Manufacturing output is expected to increase by 2.1% in 2012 and expand by 5.3% in 2013. Over the next 10 years to 2021, manufacturing output is expected to grow on average by 4.3% a year. As a result, the share of manufacturing output in GDP is projected to rise from 25.4% in 2011 to 27.2% by 2016 and increase to 28.7% by 2021. Over the same period, the share of service sector output in GDP is expected to decline from 58.5% in 2011 to 57.2% in 2016 and fall to 56.2% in 2021.
Topic:
Economics, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
Europe and Poland

158. The Eurasian Customs Union: Friend or Foe of the EU?

Author:
Olga Shumylo-Tapiola
Publication Date:
10-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The customs union formed by Russia, Belarus, and Kazakhstan in 2010— the largest in the world by territory—is becoming very real. Though hurdles remain, member states are eliminating non-tariff barriers to trade within the union, moving toward a common external tariff, and fine-tuning a joint customs code. As the customs union's influence on the world stage and in Europe's neighborhood is likely to increase, the European Union (EU) should attempt to understand the project and find ways to protect its own interests.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Central Asia, Eurasia, Kazakhstan, and Belarus

159. Moral Hazard in an Economic Union: Politics, Economics, and Fiscal Gimmickry in Europe

Author:
James Alt, David Dreyer Lassen, and Joachim Wehner
Publication Date:
07-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
This paper examines empirically how transparency of the budget process affects fiscal rules and incentives for fiscal gimmickry or creative accounting in the European Union. Using stock-flow adjustment data for EU countries from 1990-2007, we show that pressure from a deficit limit rule as in the Stability and Growth Pact creates incentives for fiscal gimmicks, as does political pressure from the electoral cycle and economic pressure from negative shocks in the business cycle. However, we show that where institutional transparency is higher, these incentives are damped and largely disappear. We infer that fiscal rules do not work well when institutional transparency is low.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe

160. Transformations on Whose Terms? Understanding the New EU-ACP Trade Relations from the Outside In

Author:
Ulrike Lorenz
Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Kolleg-Forschergruppe (KFG)
Abstract:
In the past ten years, the long-standing trade relations between the European Union (EU) and the African, Caribbean, and Pacific (ACP) countries have experienced radical transformations. The negotiations of the Economic Partnership Agreements (EPAs) between the EU and seven regional groupings formed by the ACP countries have led to the EU being maneuvered into an unexpectedly weak position. For the first time, European negotiators had to substantially leave their pre-agreed negotiation path and positions due to the immense pressure from ACP countries, regional organizations, and non-state actors – and still have not been able to finalize negotiations that had initially been expected to only take five years until the end of 2007.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, Asia, Australia/Pacific, and Caribbean