1. Fifty shades of red: where does Russia draw the line?
- Author:
- Polina Sinovets
- Publication Date:
- 11-2023
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- NATO Defense College
- Abstract:
- From the outset, the war on Ukraine came with a particular feature attached: the threat of nuclear escalation. As President Putin stated in his 24 February speech, “whoever tries to hinder us or threaten our country or our people should know that Russia’s response will be immediate and will lead you to consequences that you have never faced in your history.”1 Rather than deterring any type of support to Ukraine, this has instead led to a discussion about what exactly would trigger a nuckear escalation: where do Russia's red lines really lie? This paper is structured as follows: it defines what “red lines” are in international relations theory, and outlines the narratives and timeline associated with their use in the war on Ukraine. It then proposes three shades of red to categorize the different degrees of threat they represent. It concludes that Russia’s nuclear rhetoric has decreased rather than increased the chances of a major escalation of the conflict.
- Topic:
- Nuclear Weapons, International Relations Theory, Deterrence, Russia-Ukraine War, and Red Line
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Ukraine