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611. The European Union: Energy Security and the Periphery

Author:
John Gault
Publication Date:
08-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
Europe relies upon imported energy, and the degree of this reliance will increase in coming decades. Internal (primarily North Sea) production of liquid fuels will decline, and production of natural gas will reach a plateau, so that incremental hydrocarbon requirements will necessarily come from external sources. This trend of rising energy imports has important security implications.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, and Energy Policy
Political Geography:
Europe

612. Transatlantic Relations in a Unipolar World

Author:
William Wohlforth
Publication Date:
08-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
The state of transatlantic relations is normal - arguably in crisis, arguably not; poised for fundamental change, or for basic continuity. The usual question for conferences on transatlantic relations is whether this situation will continue. My purpose in this paper is to set forth a perspective on the future of the transatlantic relationship based on the central realist proposition that the distribution of capabilities among states is an important background influence on their behaviour. Major changes in international relations often arise from changes in the distribution of power. Important features of the Cold War resulted from the great concentration of power in the United States and the Soviet Union - a condition that came to be called "bipolarity." The Cold War ended in significant measure owing to changes in the distribution of power - namely, the decline and fall of the Soviet Union. As a result of Soviet and Russian decline, a new unipolar distribution has emerged with new consequences for international politics in general and the transatlantic relationship in particular.
Topic:
International Relations and NATO
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

613. Mediterranean Security and Co-Operation: Interest and Role of Italy and Libya

Author:
Roberto Aliboni
Publication Date:
03-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
This paper looks at the international relations across the Mediterranean Sea, between the European countries - in particular, the European Union-EU - and the countries of the Near East and North Africa. In this framework, it tries to define the role of Italy and Libya and the joint actions they can carry out to foster peace and co-operation in the area concerned.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, and International Cooperation
Political Geography:
Europe, Libya, North Africa, and Italy

614. Trans-Atlantic Relations: Challenges and Opportunities

Author:
Wolfgang Ischinger
Publication Date:
10-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Institute at University of Wisconsin, Madison
Abstract:
I would like to share some observations about German-American relations, about Afghanistan, about Iraq and the war on terrorism, and about power and the global system. Where does Germany stand today? The recent elections in Germany have brought about a number of significant developments.
Topic:
International Relations and Security
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, America, Europe, and Germany

615. Trans-Atlantic Relations: A Norwegian Perspective

Author:
Knut Vollebaek
Publication Date:
04-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Institute at University of Wisconsin, Madison
Abstract:
Gilles Bousquet, Dean of International Studies and Director of the International Institute, welcomed guests to the event. Ambassador Vollebæk was introduced by Alfred Defago, former Swiss ambassador to the United States and currently International Institute Visiting Professor. Professor Defago, who invited Ambassador Vollebæk to the UW–Madison campus in conjunction with his International Studies seminar on “Evolving European Perspectives on American Politics and Society,” described Ambassador Vollebæk as one of Europe's top diplomats and as one of the most influential and intellectually brilliant leaders of the diplomatic community in Washington, D.C. Ambassador Vollebæk, a career diplomat, served as Foreign Minister of Norway from 1997–2000 and in that capacity was chairman of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe. A tireless advocate for international human rights, he was a leader in efforts to stop the atrocities in Kosovo and played key roles in monitoring conflicts and brokering negotiations in Chechnya, Sri Lanka and the Middle East.
Topic:
International Relations and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States, America, Europe, Washington, Middle East, Norway, Chechnya, Sri Lanka, and Kosovo

616. Equity Prices, Household Wealth, and Consumption Growth in Foreign Industrial Countries: Wealth Effects in the 1990s

Author:
Carol C. Bertaut
Publication Date:
04-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
Although most recent empirical research regarding the size and significance of the impact of changes in wealth on consumption has looked for such effects in the United States, equity prices in the 1990s rose considerably in most other industrial countries as well. This paper investigates the strength of the wealth effect across countries. Using a variety of methods, I find evidence of significant wealth effects in the United Kingdom and Canada of a size comparable to that in the United States, reflecting the importance of equities in aggregate household wealth in these countries. A significant wealth effect is also evident in Japan, but because household wealth has changed little on balance in Japan in recent years, this channel has been less important in explaining Japanese consumption growth in the second half of the 1990s. Despite a rapid appreciation in equity prices and an increase in equity ownership in the major continental European countries since 1995, equities remain a less important form of household wealth in most of these countries, and the consumption response to changes in wealth remains limited. However, in some smaller European countries where equity issuance is more common, the emerging evidence suggests that wealth effects may be more important.
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, Globalization, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, United Kingdom, Europe, and Canada

617. International Coordination of Macroeconomic Policies: Still Alive in the New Millennium?

Author:
Joseph E. Gagnon, Dale W. Henderson, Brian M. Doyle, and Laurence H. Meyer
Publication Date:
04-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
In this paper we provide two building blocks for an analysis of international policy coordination: (1) a survey of models of policy coordination, and (2) an account of experience with policy coordination among the G-7 countries and within Europe since the breakdown of the Bretton Woods System. Using these building blocks, we investigate the correspondence between the models and experience and attempt to draw lessons for both the modelers and the practitioners. We find that the correspondence is close enough that the models help in analyzing several instances of actual policy coordination, but that the correspondence could be even closer. As for lessons for modelers, we suggest that they devote more attention to the analysis of information exchange, a key feature of practical policy coordination; to the coordination of different types of policies; to the ramifications of political divisions within countries; and to the implications of market irrationality and speculative bubbles. As for lessons for policy makers, we suggest that they give more consideration to the choice of their ultimate objectives, in particular to whether the current account should always be close to balance; to achieving better internal policies; and to the greater use of fiscal policy as a stabilization tool.
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, Globalization, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Europe

618. Afghanistan and Regional Geopolitical Dynamics after 11 September

Publication Date:
04-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
In April 2002, the National Intelligence Council sponsored a conference that examined the impact of events in Afghanistan since 11 September on a variety of regional actors, including Russia, Iran, Turkey, India, Europe, Pakistan, and the Central Asian states of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. The conference brought together government and outside experts and consisted of four workshops with presentations from ten academic and regional experts, followed by lengthy discussion sessions. The purpose of the conference was not to arrive at a consensus but to deepen understanding of the complex geopolitical dynamics at work in the region.
Topic:
International Relations, Regional Cooperation, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Russia, Europe, Iran, Turkey, Middle East, India, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan

619. U.S. Policy Toward the Former Yugoslavia

Author:
Steven E. Meyer
Publication Date:
08-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Wilson Center
Abstract:
As long as the Cold War framed the international arena, relations between the United States and Yugoslavia were—for the most part—fairly clear and predictable. Both sides played their assigned roles well in the larger East-West drama. For the U.S., Yugoslavia—after Tito and Stalin split in 1948—was the useful, even reliable, strategically-placed, communist antagonist to the Soviet Union. Certainly, Washington complained at times about Yugoslavia's preference for nonalignment and lamented the fact that it was not part of the Western alliance. The fact that Yugoslavia was indeed a communist state that Moscow could not control, however, more than compensated for these “short comings.” As a reward, the U.S. courted Tito, provided economic aid, and paid virtually no attention to how he ran the country—even his brutal rise to power after World War II was of little consequence.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Cold War, and Politics
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, Washington, Soviet Union, and Yugoslavia

620. NATO as a Factor of Security Community Building: Enlargement and Democratization in Central and Eastern Europe

Author:
Corneliu Bjola
Publication Date:
04-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Wilson Center
Abstract:
This analysis is primarily concerned with examining the building blocks and mechanisms through which NATO extends its institutional and normative influence and contributes (or not) to reducing chances for military conflict and political tension in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) by integrating the region into the Western security community. In terms of political stakes, the prospects of forming a CEE security community would be seriously undermined if NATO enlargement and partnership programs were perceived as facilitating the evolution of a regional arms race, driven by aggressive foreign policies and sponsored by widespread nationalism and regional mistrust. The formation of the CEE security community would be more likely if the institutional and normative adjustments induced by NATO's cooperative security arrangements were viewed as promoting the democratic development of the political-military structures driven by non-nationalist and region-wide, cooperative attitudes.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, NATO, and Democratization
Political Geography:
Europe