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361. The Future of NATO-Russia Relations: Or, How to Dance With a Bear and Not Get Mauled

Author:
Lt. Colonel Gordon B. Hendrickson
Publication Date:
12-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Following the dissolution of the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact, NATO has enlarged its membership twice with countries formerly under Soviet influence and control, and the Alliance is now preparing to begin the process for a third expansion effort. During this time, Russia has watched the borders of NATO creep ever closer to its own, but has generally been powerless to prevent it. Although NATO has taken pains to include and consult with Russia regarding its actions and future plans, the Kremlin cannot reasonably be expected to continue to watch NATO's expansion eastward without eventually pushing back hard. Without question, many significant issues and challenges must still be solved before enlarging the Alliance once again. In light of this, NATO must work rigorously to continue to keep Russia engaged in a productive and mutually beneficial relationship as both sides work through the future obstacles that inevitably will arise in the NATO -Russia relationship.
Topic:
International Relations and NATO
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Asia, and Soviet Union

362. Topics in Terrorism: Toward a Transatlantic Consensus on the Nature of the Threat

Author:
Jason S. Purcell (ed) and Joshua D. Weintraub (ed)
Publication Date:
07-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
The Brussels Conference on “Topics in Terrorism: Toward a Transatlantic Consensus on the Nature of the Threat” was the first of three conferences whose principal purpose was to explore specific themes associated with the world-wide effort to cope with and counter the threat of terrorists. Held in three different European capitals (Brussels, Vienna, and Budapest), the conferences drew on divergent presenters and audiences. Each conference convened subject-matter experts from the United States and Europe with the express intent of considering various perspectives on some of the most difficult challenges facing the transatlantic community. While reaching a consensus on each of the major topics would certainly have been a desirable outcome, where a consensus proved elusive, a major objective was to gain a better understanding of the divergent views and the rationale that underpins those views.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, and Vienna

363. Re-Engaging Russia: The Case for a Joint U.S.-EU Effort

Author:
Frances G. Burwell
Publication Date:
02-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
For the past decade, both the United States and the governments of Europe — including the European Union — have sought to engage Russia with the goal of having a stable and democratic country increasingly integrated into the western political and economic system. Recently, however, many U.S. and European observers have become concerned that the Russian government seems to be moving in a more authoritarian direction, centralizing government decision-making, while backsliding on some reforms and neglecting others. Although economic growth has been robust, there is less confidence about the application of the rule of law. Instability persists in many of the states neighboring Russia, offering opportunities for regional conflict and for misunderstanding between Russia and the West.
Topic:
International Relations
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Europe, and Asia

364. The Politics of Budget Consolidation In Britain and Germany: The Impact of Blame-Avoidance Opportunities

Author:
Reimut Zohlnhöfer
Publication Date:
07-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
Abstract:
According to parts of the literature, blame avoidance opportunities, i.e. the necessity and applicability of blame avoidance strategies, may differ among countries according to the respective institutional set-ups and between governing parties according to their programmatic orientation. In countries with many veto actors, a strategy of "Institutional Cooperation" among these actors is expected to diffuse blame sufficiently to render other blame avoidance strategies obsolete. In contrast, governments in Westminster democracies should resort to the more unilateral strategies of presentation, policy design and timing. At the same time, parties of the left are expected to have an easier time implementing spending cuts while right parties are less vulnerable when proposing tax increases. Evidence from the politics of budget consolidation in Britain and Germany does not corroborate these hypotheses. Instead, it seems that party competition conditions the effects institutions and the partisan complexion of governments have on the politics of blame avoidance.
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, and Politics
Political Geography:
Europe

365. Fiscal Perspectives in Europe: Convergence and Debt's Burden

Author:
Thierry Warin
Publication Date:
06-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
Abstract:
The paper addresses the question of the fiscal perspectives within the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). By using a panel data analysis associated with an interpretation in terms of differences instead of levels, the results show a steady convergence of public deficits across the EMU, and that the EMU needs either to comply with the Lisbon agenda, or some kind of a growth strategy, or reduce the interest of the debt in order to regain some fiscal flexibility while abiding by the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP).
Topic:
International Relations, Debt, and Economics
Political Geography:
Europe

366. The Politics of Institutional Learning and Creation: Bank Crises and Supervision in East Central Europe

Author:
Gerald A. McDermott
Publication Date:
04-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
Abstract:
This article examines the political conditions shaping the creation of new institutional capabilities. It analyzes bank sector reforms in the 1990s in three leading postcommunist democracies–Hungary, Poland, and the Czech Republic. It shows how different political approaches to economic transformation can facilitate or hinder the ability of relevant public and private actors to experiment and learn their new roles. With its emphasis on insulating power and rapidly implementing self-enforcing economic incentives, the “depoliticization” approach creates few changes in bank behavior and, indeed, impedes investment in new capabilities at the bank and supervisory levels. The “deliberativ e restructuring” approach fostered innovative, cost-effective monitoring structures for recapitalization, a strong supervisory system, and a stable, expanding bank sector.
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, and Politics
Political Geography:
Europe, Eastern Europe, Poland, and Hungary

367. The International Promotion of Political Norms in Eastern Europe: a Qualitative Comparative Analysis

Author:
Frank Schimmelfennig
Publication Date:
03-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
Abstract:
Since the end of the Cold War, European regional organizations have been engaged in promoting the core norms of the emerging pan-European liberal international community in Eastern Europe: democracy and human rights (including minority rights) and the peaceful and integrative settlement of international and interethnic conflicts. When were these efforts effective? Starting from the two most prominent models in the literature on international norm promotion–the social learning model and the external incentives model–the paper uses Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA) to examine the conditions under which governments in eastern Europe have complied with the political demands of European regional organizations. It shows that a credible perspective of EU and/or NATO accession combined with low political adaptation costs for the target governments was a sufficient condition for compliance; it thus corroborates the external incentives model. However, in the final phase of accession negotiations, a positive identification with the West proved sufficient as well–even when compliance threatened the survival of the government. By contrast, the other conditions of the social learning model (legitimacy and resonance) were irrelevant to the effectiveness of international norm promotion.
Topic:
International Relations, Cold War, and Human Rights
Political Geography:
Europe

368. Is Europe Becoming the Most Dynamic Knowledge Economy in the World?

Author:
Daniele Archibugi and Alberto Coco
Publication Date:
01-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
Abstract:
The paper discusses the condition and perspective of the European Union in the knowledge economy and the feasibility of the goal given by the European Council at the Summits held in Lisbon (March 2000) and Barcelona (March 2002), that is, to increase European R expenditure up to 3 percent of GDP by 2010. The paper focuses on two aspects: comparative performance with its direct counterparts, in particular the US..; and intra-European distribution of resources and capabilities. A set of technological indicators is presented to show that Europe is still in a consistent delay when compared to Japan and the U.S., especially in R investment and in the generation of innovations. A small convergence occurs in the diffusion of Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs), the sector most directly linked to the concept of the "new economy." In the field of knowledge collaboration, Europe reveals opposing paths in the business and in the academic worlds. Within Europe, the level of investment in scientific and technological activities is so different across countries that it does not merge into a single continental innovation system.
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
Europe and Lisbon

369. Racing to the Bottom in the Post-Communist World: Domestic Politics, International Trade and Environmental Governance

Author:
Edward Mansfield, Helen V. Milner, and Liliana B. Andonova
Publication Date:
02-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for International Studies, University of Southern California
Abstract:
In this paper, we analyze whether trade liberalization and increasing commercial openness has affected environmental governance in the post-Communist countries of Central and Eastern Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States. During the Cold War, these countries had closed economies and autarkic trade policies combined with little environmental regulation and poor environmental quality. The fall of the Berlin Wall and the breakup of the Soviet Union began a process of marked change in the region. Many post-Communist countries have engaged in extensive trade liberalization. Others, however, have been slower to open their markets; and some have maintained highly protectionist trade policies. Have countries that opened up to global markets improved their environmental policies or has increasing exposure to the international trading system led to a “race to the bottom”? Controlling for a wide variety of economic and political factors, our results indicate that heightened trade openness has weakened environmental governance in the post-Communist world, suggesting that an environmental race to the bottom has been occurring among the transition economies.
Topic:
International Relations, Environment, International Trade and Finance, and Politics
Political Geography:
Europe and Berlin

370. CERI: Reconciling Enlargement and Security on the EU New Eastern Border. The Romanian-Moldovan Chapter

Author:
Odette Tomescu-Hatto
Publication Date:
09-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales
Abstract:
The enlargement of the EU to the Central and Eastern European countries raises interrogations concerning the new borders traced by Brussels between the Member States and their future neighbors. What is the impact of the EU enlargement on the Romanian-Moldovan relations and how might the cooperation between the two countries affect the security of the Eastern border of the EU? The analysis on the one hand of the impact of Romania's preparations for EU membership on its relations with Moldova and the evaluation on the other hand of the limits and success of the European Neighborhood Policy towards Moldova, show that one of the main challenges for the EU will be to reconcile at the same time security and integration.
Topic:
International Relations and Development
Political Geography:
Europe, Eastern Europe, and Romania