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1. The demographic divide: inequalities in ageing across the European Union

Author:
David Pinkus and Nina Ruer
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
The European Union is projected to enter a period of population decline after 2026, with implications for economic development and labour markets, though these will vary because of different trends in different EU countries. Between 2023 and 2050, Eastern and Southern EU countries will face the sharpest declines because of both natural population decrease and limited net inward migration. In contrast, Northern and Western countries could see population growth driven by higher migration. By 2050, working-age populations are projected to decline in 22 out of 27 EU countries, while the share of those aged 85+ in the EU as whole will more than double. This shift will strain healthcare, pension and long-term care systems across the continent. Eastern and Southern EU countries will face more severe ageing and workforce shrinkages, undermining their competitiveness and potentially contributing to increasing inequality. Western and Northern countries will also age, but slower natural population decline and larger migration inflows will give them more time to adjust. However, regional disparities within countries will likely widen as migrants concentrate in urban areas, leaving rural regions even more vulnerable to depopulation. Policies must be adapted to these different demographic trends. Eastern EU countries should focus on retaining talent, attracting migrants in sectors with labour shortages and increasing labour-force participation by women and older workers. Southern countries should strengthen family-friendly and youth-employment policies, while improving migrant integration and regional infrastructure. Western and Northern countries must prioritise migrant integration, rural development and gradual labour-market reforms for ageing populations. A coordinated EU plan for these different trends would support EU countries in addressing the challenges they will face. Integration of migrants into labour markets and societies will be especially important, though relying on sustained high migration may not be a viable long-term solution and will not be a substitute for maximising the participation of residents in labour markets.
Topic:
Demographics, European Union, Inequality, and Aging
Political Geography:
Europe

2. The Path Through: Early COVID-19 Job Loss and Labour Market Trajectories in Austria

Author:
Stefan Jestl and Maryna Tverdostup
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:
This paper examines the socio-demographic disparities evident in the early labour market response to the COVID-19 pandemic in Austria, relying on the register-based labour market career dataset from the Austrian Micro Data Center (AMDC) for the 2018-2021 period. The analysis focuses on the divergences in out-of-unemployment transitions and medium-term employment stability among those who lost their jobs early in the pandemic in contrast to the group of the longer-term unemployed. We document that individuals affected by job loss during the initial phases of the pandemic did not exhibit enduring scarring effects. Unlike their longer-term unemployed counterparts, they did not demonstrate persistent labour market detachment, prolonged periods of unemployment or a diminished success rate in re-employment. However, certain socio-demographic cohorts – notably, women, parents with two or more young children, and individuals with lower levels of education – faced disproportionate challenges during the pandemic. They were more inclined to transition into precarious employment arrangements and experienced lower levels of employment stability in the months following re-employment.
Topic:
Employment, Inequality, Unemployment, COVID-19, Labor Market, and Gender
Political Geography:
Europe and Austria

3. Gender and Education Gaps in Employment: New Evidence for the EU

Author:
Aleksandr Arsenev, Meryem Gökten, Philipp Heimberger, Andreas Lichtenberger, and Torben Schütz
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:
This paper analyses (age-adjusted) employment rates by gender and education. We find that male female gender gaps and high-low education gaps in employment vary markedly across European Union (EU) countries and regions, with larger gaps existing in Eastern and Southern Europe than in Nordic and Continental EU countries. We estimate that closing existing education gaps in employment between high and lower education levels would raise the employment rate in the EU for the year 2022 by 10.6 percentage points, whereas closing the gender gaps between men and women would lead to an increase of 2.5 percentage points. At the same time, closing both the gender and education gaps would raise the EU employment rate from 76% to 89% of the population. Furthermore, we provide new evidence on the cyclical behaviour of employment gaps, finding that gender gaps are procyclical. While female employment rates tend to be more resilient than male employment rates during economic downturns, male employment rates tend to grow at a faster pace than female employment rates during upswings. In contrast, education gaps are more countercyclical, as employment risks are more strongly concentrated where education is low.
Topic:
Education, Labor Issues, European Union, Employment, Inequality, Macroeconomics, Unemployment, Gender, and Income Distribution
Political Geography:
Europe

4. VI Informe sobre la Desigualdad en España: Los efectos de las transiciones demográfica, climática y digital en la desigualdad

Author:
Juan Francisco Albert, Luis Ayala Cañón, Jordi Bosch Meda, Jesús Cruces, and Antonio Ferrer
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Fundación Alternativas
Abstract:
El sexto Informe sobre la Desigualdad en España (2024) de la Fundación Alternativas centra su atención sobre el análisis de los efectos sobre la desigualdad y la pobreza de las transiciones demográfica, climática y digital, con un énfasis en su dimensión territorial. La valoración más compartida es que los cambios producidos por estos tres movimientos simultáneos, envejecimiento de la población, transición climática y transformación digital, van a afectar de manera notable a las desigualdades interterritoriales e interpersonales de nuestro país. En consecuencia, se propone una reflexión que aborde un análisis conjunto y desde la perspectiva de las políticas públicas de estos retos que permita avanzar en el conocimiento de los efectos de las transformaciones en marcha y de las que habrán de producirse en el futuro, ofreciendo adicionalmente una serie de recomendaciones de políticas. Estas recomen- daciones incluyen algunas medidas para abordar la transición demográfica y reducir sus efectos sobre la desigualdad territorial, las necesarias propuestas de reforma fiscal, las políticas de cuidados, la distribución territorial de los fon- dos para la digitalización y la prevención de riesgos climáticos por territorios, entre otras cuestiones de creciente importancia en el ámbito público. En la elaboración y producción del documento y sus recomendaciones han colaborado, además, la Fundación 1º de Mayo (CC OO) y Oxfam Intermón.
Topic:
Climate Change, Demographics, Inequality, Economy, and Public Policy
Political Geography:
Europe and Spain

5. Inequality kills: on Russian combat ineff ectiveness in Ukraine and beyond

Author:
Pilster Ulrich and Olesya Vinhas de Souza
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
NATO Defense College
Abstract:
What would Russia’s military strategy be in a war with NATO? Before 2022, many analysts worried about the scenario in which Russia, leveraging a tactically profi cient and well-coordinated combined arms force, could swiftly overrun the Baltics in a matter of days. Drawing on a statistical analysis of historical battles and an examination of Russian force structure and equipment losses in Ukraine, we challenge this view. Endemic inequality within the Russian Armed Forces will continue to impede their adoption of the sophisticated tactics necessary for manoeuvre warfare. Therefore, we anticipate that a future potential Russian attack would resemble a war of attrition. Unable to quickly out-manoeuvre NATO forces, Moscow would aim to deploy overwhelming fi repower and manpower against Allied troops and civilian populations, with an aim to infl ict widespread and sustained destruction.
Topic:
NATO, Military Strategy, Inequality, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

6. Gender equality in Europe: a still imperfect model in the world

Author:
Stefanie Buzmaniuk
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
In a world where women's rights are once again being challenged from all quarters, Europe remains the place where women live best. Within the Union, however, there have been some setbacks, difficulties persist, and progress is still required in the political, economic and social fields to achieve true gender equality.
Topic:
Human Rights, European Union, Women, Inequality, and Gender
Political Geography:
Europe

7. The Political Economy of the Cost of Living Crisis in the UK: What Is to Be Done?

Author:
Ozlem Onaran
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
This paper analyzes the political economy of the cost of living crisis in the context of the United Kingdom. The paper presents the long-term trends in the wage share, wealth inequality, labour’s bargaining power, and real wages in the UK. The first and second waves of inflation in 2021-22 are discussed presenting the trends in the profit margins. The policy responses by the conservative governments and the Bank of England are analyzed, and their limitations are assessed. The paper concludes with short-run and medium-run policy alternatives to the cost of living crisis
Topic:
Political Economy, Labor Issues, Inequality, Inflation, and Cost of Living
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

8. Environmental Inequality in Industrial Brownfields: Evidence from French Municipalities

Author:
Charlotte Bez, Michael Ash, and James K. Boyce
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
Recent research on environmental inequality has extended its focus from ongoing pollution to legacy pollution by examining the geography of industrial brownfields, defined as nonproductive, contaminated land. This article is the first extensive brownfield analysis for a European country from an environmental inequality perspective, exploiting the political momentum in France where brownfield restoration has become a national priority. In doing so, we combine data on over 7,200 industrial brownfields from the 2022 geodatabase ‘Cartofriches’ with socio-economic variables at the municipality level. We demonstrate communities with higher percentages of foreign-born and unemployed persons are disproportionately more likely to be located near brownfields. The social gradient increases significantly in communities that host many brownfields, the so-called hotspots. There is an inverted U-shaped relationship with income, with a positive correlation until the 75th percentile (C23,700 annually). These findings are robust to different controls, including across urban and rural areas, though with regional differences. Further, we also account for the location of noxious industrial facilities sourced from the E-PRTR database to show the existence of cumulative impacts of environmental risks. Our analysis provides crucial entry points for restorative environmental justice considerations and has important implications for Europe’s just transition and cohesion policies.
Topic:
Environment, Inequality, Pollution, Industry, and Municipalities
Political Geography:
Europe and France

9. A New Horizon in U.S. Trade Policy: Key Developments and Questions for the Biden Administration

Author:
Trevor Sutton and Mike Williams
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:
This issue brief examines some of the key trade initiatives pursued by the Biden administration to date. It then sets out key questions facing U.S. trade policy in a global environment defined by volatility and renewed ambition to tackle the great challenges of the 21st century, such as climate change, inequality, and great power competition.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Climate Change, Treaties and Agreements, European Union, Inequality, Economy, Trade Policy, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:
Europe, North America, Asia-Pacific, United States of America, and Americas

10. Spatial Wage Inequality in North America and Western Europe: Changes Between and Within Local Labour Markets 1975-2019

Author:
L. Baluz, P. Bukowski, M. Fransham, A. Lee, and M. López Forero
Publication Date:
08-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
The rise of economic inequalities in advanced economies has been often linked with the growth of spatial inequalities within countries, yet there is limited comparative research that studies the relationship between national and subnational economic inequality. This paper presents the first systematic attempt to create internationally comparable evidence showing how different countries perform in terms of geographic wage inequalities. We create cross-country comparable measures of spatial wage disparities between and within similarly-defined local labour market areas (LLMAs) for Canada, France, (West) Germany, the UK and the US since the 1970s, and assess their contribution to national inequality. By the end of the 2010s, spatial inequalities in LLMA mean wages are similar in Canada, France, Germany and the UK; the US exhibits the highest degree of spatial inequality. Over the study period, spatial inequalities have nearly doubled in all countries, except for France where spatial inequalities have fallen back to 1970s levels. Due to a concomitant increase in within-place inequality, the contribution of places in explaining national wage inequality has remained fairly constant over the 40-year study period, except in the UK where we document a significant increase. Whilst common global social, economic and technological shocks are important drivers of spatial inequality, this variation in levels and trends of spatial inequality opens the way to comparative research exploring the role of national institutions in mediating how global shocks translate into economic disparities between places.
Topic:
Inequality, Labor Market, and Wages
Political Geography:
Europe and North America