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361. What Are the Limits to Economic Integration?

Author:
Paul Brenton
Publication Date:
11-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
This paper discusses the continuing importance of borders, even within the EU, for the volume of international trade and global capital flows. It suggests that a range of factors, including the nature of the commercial, social and legal fabric of a country and the structure of consumers' preferences, act to constrain cross-border exchanges relative to internal transactions. Hence, whilst the process of globalisation may continue, there are likely to be distinct limits to the extent of economic integration. This entails that the traditional roles of governments in OECD countries in providing social welfare and regulating the market economy within national boundaries will not be seriously undermined. However, the situation may differ in developing countries where existing social and legal institutions may be compromised by globalisation rather than acting to dampen its impact.
Topic:
Economics, Government, Human Rights, International Trade and Finance, Migration, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Europe

362. Fiscal Policy Spillovers in the Euro Area: Where Are They?

Author:
Daniel Gros and Alexandr Hobza
Publication Date:
11-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
What impact would a fiscal expansion in Germany have on the rest of the euro area? It has been generally suggested that it could go in either of two opposite directions, depending on the relative strength of two effects: the direct trade linkage and the financial market repercussions. A review of the results from four major macroeconomic models shows that the cross-country spillover effects of fiscal policy are indeed of uncertain sign and magnitude. Different models give quite different results if used in standardised simulations in terms of the sign, magnitude and time profile of the impact of a fiscal expansion in one member country (e.g. Germany) on other euro area countries. Fewer results are available concerning the potential spillover effects of structural policies, but they are similar to the ones concerning a budgetary stimulus: the magnitude of the spillover is small and varies across countries and over time.
Topic:
Economics, Government, Human Rights, International Trade and Finance, Migration, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

363. Extending Citizenship Rights to Third Country Nationals

Author:
Joanna Apap
Publication Date:
10-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
Various issues arise in the European context with respect to the boundaries of citizenship; one of the main questions is to what extent the division between the European Union citizens and third country nationals will increase, especially if “deepening” of the Union leads to more tightening of its external borders. This paper addresses the question of how far citizenship rights can be extended to third country migrants in the EU?
Topic:
Economics, Government, Human Rights, International Trade and Finance, Migration, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Europe

364. Putin's Plans for Russia: How Realistic Are They? (Event Summary)

Author:
Emil Pain
Publication Date:
05-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
Implications of Putin's policies remain vague. While analysts and politicians note alarming trends in politics, the economy and human rights, it is difficult to identify details and determine the feasibility of Putin's long-term strategy. Dr. Emil Pain, the Galina Starovoitova Fellow on Human Rights and Conflict Resolution at the Kennan Institute/Woodrow Wilson Center and a former advisor to President Yeltsin, was invited to present his views on policies of the Putin administration.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Democratization, Energy Policy, and Human Rights
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

365. Human Rights and Regional Co-Operation in the Caucasus: The Role of Georgia

Author:
Ettore Greco and Marco Gestri
Publication Date:
11-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The first session of the seminar focused on “Georgia and the European System for the Protection of Human Rights”. Analysis of the topics to be discussed within this framework was preceded by some introductory remarks by Ambassador Maurizio Moreno, Department of Political Affairs of the Italian Ministry for Foreign Affairs. Ambassador Moreno gave a concise but stimulating overview of the political context in which Georgia's international relations must be considered. First, he emphasised the clear will of the majority of the Georgian people and of Georgian institutions to strengthen ties with European and Euro-Atlantic organisations. Then he drew the attention of the Georgian participants to the fact that there is a firm determination on the part of the European Union and its member states to consider Georgia a full member of the European family of nations; this has been proven, in particular, by Georgia's accession to the Council of Europe.
Topic:
Human Rights and International Cooperation
Political Geography:
Europe and Georgia

366. Kosovo in Limbo: State-Building and "Substantial Autonomy"

Author:
Simon Chesterman
Publication Date:
08-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Peace Institute (IPI)
Abstract:
Complex peace operations that involve state-building functions are difficult even when the political outcome is clear, as it is in East Timor. In situations such as Kosovo, where the final status of the territory under administration remains unclear, every aspect of state-building is more politically sensitive and more operationally complex. When this occurs in a highly militarized environment and in an unstable region, any departure from a supposedly “interim” solution becomes more difficult still. The Dayton Accords in Bosnia show the dangers of a difficult peace agreement evolving into a constitutional framework that is both unworkable and impossible to change. The conclusion of hostilities may provide the best incentive for belligerents to compromise, but it may subsequently become impossible to reopen such questions without the threat of renewed violence. Future peace agreements are therefore likely to contain state-building provisions that international institutions will assume the task of overseeing, in some situations without a clear political endpoint and exit strategy. In Kosovo, the elections slated for November 17, 2001, reflect a desire for measurable progress and an indication of when the mission will end. An April 2001 report by the UN Secretary-General on this topic was entitled “No exit without strategy”, warning that the UN has too often withdrawn or dramatically altered a peacekeeping operation, only to see the situation remain unstable or sink into renewed violence. Unfortunately, the attitude of lead actors within the Security Council is too often “no strategy without an exit”. State-building after a war will always take years, perhaps decades, and it is disingenuous to suggest otherwise to domestic publics. Elections and limited devolution notwithstanding, the international community will remain in Kosovo and Bosnia for the foreseeable future, certainly with a strong military presence and with at least a supervisory civilian authority. This is an undesirable outcome of what NATO styles as humanitarian interventions, but it is better than all the alternatives. The fact that UNMIK will remain in control of Kosovo for the foreseeable future raises the question of how it should govern. Within UNMIK, there is an increasing tension between those who regard respect for human rights and the rule of law as central to the institution-building aspect of UNMIK's mandate, and those who see this as secondary to the over-riding concerns of peace and security.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Human Rights, International Law, International Organization, Migration, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Europe, Bosnia, and Kosovo

367. Managing Security Challenges in Post-Conflict Peacebuilding

Author:
Sheila Coutts and Kelvin Ong
Publication Date:
06-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Peace Institute (IPI)
Abstract:
While a functioning security sector provides the cornerstone for stable and democratic post-conflict societies, the record of the international community in establishing this critical function is mixed. Despite repeatedly having to manage the immediate post-conflict situation in various peace operations in Europe, Africa, Asia and Latin America, the international community still fails to take the state of the local security sector adequately into account when planning its own intervention.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Human Rights, International Law, International Organization, Migration, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, Asia, and Latin America

368. War Criminals in Bosnia's Republika Srpska: Who are the People in Your Neighbourhood?

Publication Date:
11-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Five years after the signing of the Dayton Peace Accords, which brought an end to almost four years of bloody war in Bosnia, many of those believed to have carried out some of the war's worst atrocities remain at large. The continued presence in the municipalities of Republika Srpska (RS) of individuals suspected of war crimes—some indicated either publicly or secretly by the International War Crimes Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY)—represents a significant obstacle to the return of ethnic minority refugees. It also undermines seriously Bosnia's chances for building central institutions, generating self-sustainable economic growth, and achieving the political transformation necessary to begin the process of integration with the rest of Europe. Moreover, the continued commitment of most war crimes suspects to the goal of a Greater Serbia, and their willingness to use violence to achieve it, could—in the long term—provoke renewed conflict in Bosnia and continued instability in the Balkans.
Topic:
Security, Ethnic Conflict, Human Rights, and Politics
Political Geography:
Europe, Bosnia, Eastern Europe, Yugoslavia, Serbia, and Balkans

369. The Changing Nature and Determinants of EU Trade Policies

Author:
Paul Brenton
Publication Date:
10-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
EU trade policies and the environment in which they are determined are now considerably different from when the EU came into being in the 1950s. With the exceptions of agriculture and textiles and clothing, tariffs and quantitative restrictions on trade in goods have been reduced to historically very low levels. But trade policy is now about much more than border restrictions upon trade in goods. Trade in services and the impact of national differences in regulatory regimes are now firmly on the trade policy agenda. This paper describes the current multilateral and preferential trade policies of the EU. It highlights the increasing importance of regulatory issues and the fact that some of these are being addressed outside of both multilateral and standard bilateral free trade agreements. This reflects the mixed motives behind EU trade policies and that for trade with certain regions the typical political economy factors framing trade policy are no longer relevant. For example, liberalisation of transatlantic trade, in the limited form at present of mutual recognition of conformity assessment, is being strongly driven by large corporate business. This trend suggests that the pyramid of preferences usually used to depict EU trade policies is becoming very distorted.
Topic:
Economics, Government, Human Rights, International Trade and Finance, Migration, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Europe

370. One Size Must Fit All: National Divergences in a Monetary Union

Author:
Daniel Gros and Carsten Hefeker
Publication Date:
07-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
What policy objective should a common central bank in a heterogeneous monetary union pursue? Should it base its decisions on the EU-wide average of inflation and growth or should it instead focus on (appropriately weighted) national welfare losses based on national rates of inflation and growth? We find that a central bank that minimises the sum of national welfare losses reacts less to common shocks and that this can lead to higher average union-wide expected welfare, if the variability of common shocks is large relative to the inflation bias. But for countries with a transmission mechanism close to the average, welfare can actually be lower in this case. The inflationary bias depends on the interaction between the transmission mechanism and distortions in labour markets.
Topic:
Economics, Government, Human Rights, International Trade and Finance, Migration, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Europe