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1. The state of the UK economy 2024

Author:
UK in a Changing Europe
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
The state of the UK economy is always an important matter, but it is all the more so in what looks likely to be an election year. This UK in a Changing Europe report takes stock of the UK economy in order to assess how it can break from the current economic and political ‘doom loop’. The report provides a constructive framework to address the need for a longer-term, joined up approach in policy areas, ranging from education to immigration, to public services and artificial intelligence. It shows that there is no single silver bullet for the problems facing the UK economy, however a number of themes have emerged. The UK has long been plagued by short-termism and political instability which needs to be addressed. Edited by Senior Fellow Professor Jonathan Portes, it brings together leading UK academics on the economy from universities across the UK, the Migration Observatory, the Institute for Fiscal Studies and other research institutions.
Topic:
Education, Industrial Policy, Migration, Economy, Tax Systems, Macroeconomics, Trade, Artificial Intelligence, Housing, Labor Market, Public Service, Productivity, and Net Zero
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

2. Policy landscape 2023

Author:
Ben Zaranko, Jonathan Portes, Mike Brewer, Paul Cheshire, and Carole Willis
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
What are the public policy challenges confronting the UK? What plans do the parties have for addressing them? To what extent are these plans fit for purpose? As Parliament returns from its summer recess, Full Fact and UK in a Changing Europe have partnered to produce a series of evidence led, research-based assessments of the key issues that politicians will confront. To do this, we brought together a group of leading experts from respected institutions including the Health Foundation, the Institute for Fiscal Studies, and the Royal United Services Institute. We asked each of them to consider, based on the findings of their own research, the challenges the country faces in their area of expertise, the immediate and longer-term issues politicians will need to address, and the potential implications of any choices they might make. We selected the issues based on the Ipsos issues index, and added security, defence and foreign affairs, which did not figure amongst the public’s priorities in July of this year. The intention of the collection is to inform and not persuade. Each article in this collection is the responsibility of its author.
Topic:
Climate Change, Education, Health, Politics, European Union, Economy, Brexit, Economic Growth, Public Policy, Fiscal Policy, Housing, and Standard of Living
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

3. The Rise and Fall of Social Housing? Housing Decommodification in Long-Run Perspective

Author:
Konstantin A. Kholodilin, Sebastian Kohl, and Sarah Hellmüller
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Max Planck Sciences Po Center on Coping with Instability in Market Societies (MaxPo)
Abstract:
The comparative study of housing decommodification lags behind classical welfare state research, while housing research itself is rich in homeownership studies but lacks comparative accounts of private and social rentals due to missing comparative data. Building on existing works and various primary sources, this study presents a new collection of up to forty-eight countries’ social housing shares in stock and new construction since the first housing laws around 1900. The interpolated benchmark time series generally describe the rise and fall of social housing across a residual, a socialist, and a Northern-European housing group. The decline was steeper than for the classical welfare state, but the degree of erosion was surprisingly small in some countries where public housing associations remained resilient. Within the broader housing welfare state, social housing correlates positively with rent regulation and allowances, but negatively with homeownership subsidies and liberal mortgage regulation. A multivariate analysis shows that social housing is rather explained by housing shortages and complementarities with rental and welfare policies than by typical welfare state theories (GDP, political parties). Generally, the paper shows that conventional housing typologies are difficult to defend over time and argues more generally for including housing decommodification in welfare state research.
Topic:
Public Policy, Housing, and Welfare State
Political Geography:
Europe and Global Focus

4. Turning the Tide on Housing: Alternatives to the Modern Orthodoxies of North America and Europe

Author:
Paula Sevilla Núñez and Adam Almeida
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
Abstract:
This research paper analyzes six case studies across North America and Europe (Berlin, New York City, Seattle, Portland, Minneapolis, Barcelona, Lisbon, and Vancouver) where the orthodoxies of modern housing policy are being challenged. It also addresses the exclusionary practices and spatial inequality that have become common fixtures across the Global North. These fall under three distinct categories: protecting renters, building coalitions and new narratives, and curbing harmful demand.
Topic:
Inequality, Public Policy, Housing, and Rent
Political Geography:
Europe and North America

5. Housing and Voting in Germany Multi-Level Evidence for the Association between House Prices and Housing Tenure and Party Outcomes, 1980–2017

Author:
Paul Beckman, Barbara Fulda, and Sebastian Kohl
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
Abstract:
Traditional predictors of election outcomes in Germany are increasingly losing their explana- tory power. Rather than new cultural divides, this paper introduces the idea of housing cleav- ages, i.e., homeownership versus tenancy and high-price versus low-price areas, drawing on macro data for electoral districts and urban neighborhoods from the last three elections (2009– 2017) in combination with Immoscout24 ad price data and microdata from the ALLBUS sur- vey (1980–2016). Although, due to its low homeownership rate and conservative house price development, Germany represents a least-likely case for housing to be of importance, we find housing effects beyond traditional predictors. Generally, we find that high house prices, house price increases, and homeownership are positively associated with voting for center-right par- ties and voter turnout, while social tenancy is associated with votes for the left, but these effects weaken over time due to embourgeoisement effects. Beyond this expected left-right distinction between tenants and wealthier homeowners, we also find outliers along two other dimensions. First, there are center-periphery effects that housing can better capture than simple geographical divisions; second, house prices contain a populist dimension, for example when skyrocketing rents increase votes for the urban left or regions where house prices lag behind benefit the AfD. The paper argues against the more causal self-interest and socialization theories of the influence of housing on voting and instead suggests considering housing as an important socioeconomic proxy to explain political outcomes.
Topic:
Elections, Voting, Homeownership, and Housing
Political Geography:
Europe, Germany, and Central Europe

6. The Consumption Response to Liquidity-Enhancing Transfers: Evidence from Italian Earthquakes

Author:
Antonio Acconcia and Saverio Simonelli
Publication Date:
06-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
Exploiting three earthquakes in Italy as quasi-experiments, we analyse the response of homeowners’ consumption to transfers targeted to finance housing repair and reconstruction. To the extent that funds are made available up-front, these transfers are akin to loans, mainly affecting the liquidity of households’ wealth Exploiting three earthquakes in Italy as quasi-experiments, we analyse the response of homeowners’ consumption to transfers targeted to finance housing repair and reconstruction. To the extent that funds are made available up-front, these transfers are akin to loans, mainly affecting the liquidity of households’ wealth. We show that these transfers have little effect over a multi-year horizon—they are not a windfall. Yet, access to reconstruction transfers has a strong and significant effect on non- durable consumption on impact, especially for households with a low level of liquid wealth and bank debt. In contrast, we find no significant consumption change in response to the in-kind equivalent of cash transfers. Our study contributes to the recent literature on the dynamics of the consumption demand by the wealthy hand-to-mouth, providing micro-evidence in line with the main predictions of the theory.
Topic:
Natural Disasters, Homeownership, Housing, Earthquake, and Liquidity
Political Geography:
Europe and Italy

7. Understanding the Nature of Local-Global Interactions in Istanbul’s Retail Property Market

Author:
Fatih Eren
Publication Date:
07-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
Institution:
Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
Abstract:
Today, capital, people and information flows have increased more than ever before among different regions in the world. Every flow creates a different local-global interaction in its own social environment. One of social environments in which this kind of interactions occurs is property markets. There are some theories to explain the nature of local and global interactions in social sciences literature. However, the success of these theories in explaining the nature of local-global interactions in a property market became subject to a research very few. This research aims to make a contribution to this area. The study also intends to find general answers to some important questions emerge in the internationalization process of property markets. The study focuses on the three well-accepted interaction theories of social sciences, which are imperialism, globalisation and glocalisation. The validity of the assumptions of these theories in the case of Istanbul’s retail property market is questioned in this research. The emergence of social structures and the specific behaviours of these structures in local property markets may be understood better when true point of view is found out about interactions. A qualitative methodology is followed; interview and document analysis methods are used in the study. Findings show that the nature of local-global interactions experienced in Istanbul’s retail property market is very unique so it is not possible to explain t
Topic:
Globalization, Imperialism, Housing, and Retail
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, Asia, and Istanbul

8. Housing Market Risks in the United Kingdom

Author:
Robert F Martin
Publication Date:
11-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
House prices in the United Kingdom rose rapidly in recent years. The run-up, larger than any other in U.K. history, leveled off early last year. House prices are currently declining at rates faster than those seen in the early 1990’s downturn. The housing downturn, however, is far from complete. Using the price-rent ratio as a guide, house prices are likely to fall at least a further 30 percent before leveling off. Given the historic links between housing and real activity, the downturn is likely to be associated with very slow growth. Going forward, we recommend the price-rent ratio as the appropriate measure of housing valuation.
Topic:
Markets, Housing, and Rent
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

9. The Swedish Housing Market Better Allocation via Less Regulation

Author:
Felix Hufner and Jens Lundsgard
Publication Date:
06-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Abstract:
While several sectors in the economy have been deregulated, the Swedish housing market remains distorted, hindering an optimal matching of supply and demand. In the rental market the rent setting framework with its focus on cost-based rents in the public sector prevents a price response, leading to long queues in some regions and vacancies in others. Many Swedes that would have preferred otherwise are driven into the owner-occupied segment, where prices are increasing strongly, and rising above an estimated fundamental value. The supply of new dwellings is made more difficult by an uncompetitive construction industry, coupled with cumbersome planning regulations and few incentives for municipalities to issue more land. On the fiscal side, real estate taxes are below neutral levels, implying an indirect subsidy to housing. This paper presents a review of the recent steps to abolish real estate taxes and also proposes comprehensive reform of regulations in the rental housing sector.
Topic:
Reform, Regulation, Public Sector, and Housing
Political Geography:
Europe, Sweden, and Scandinavia

10. Social Rights Under State Socialism? Pensions & Housing in Hungarian Welfare State Development

Author:
Phineas Baxandall
Publication Date:
01-1995
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
Abstract:
Social rights are different in Eastern Europe than in the West. Their legacy reflects the very different relationship between state and citizen, and the more instrumental use of law under state socialism. This paper develops a model for distinguishing between different forms of social rights, not only in the West, but also as the concept might be applied to different periods of state socialism. A typology of different social rights is offered, and the lasting legacies of such rights are examined in Hungarian pension and housing policy since 1949. The paper is organized in four parts: 1) There is discussion of previous approaches to interpreting social rights in Eastern Europe. 2) A rough model is suggested to distinguish between varying conceptions of social rights along two dimensions: their relative emphasis on substantive or procedural justice, and on the negative or positive definition of the state's obligation to fulfill these rights. The result is four classifications of rights. The reigning Anglo-Saxon conception of social rights is thereby distinguished not only from the view employed by western welfare state advocates, but also from the Classical Communist logic and a Late Socialist form that is most relevant to contemporary Hungary. 3) It is argued that the informality of rights that was so central to the Late Socialist welfare state has in many ways been reinforced by the process of transformation from state socialism. 4) Housing and pension policy are used to illustrate the Hungarian rights legacy and how it continues to influence social policy.
Topic:
Welfare, Housing, Pension, Social Rights, and State Socialism
Political Geography:
Europe, Eastern Europe, and Hungary