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1. Housing and Voting in Germany Multi-Level Evidence for the Association between House Prices and Housing Tenure and Party Outcomes, 1980–2017

Author:
Paul Beckman, Barbara Fulda, and Sebastian Kohl
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
Abstract:
Traditional predictors of election outcomes in Germany are increasingly losing their explana- tory power. Rather than new cultural divides, this paper introduces the idea of housing cleav- ages, i.e., homeownership versus tenancy and high-price versus low-price areas, drawing on macro data for electoral districts and urban neighborhoods from the last three elections (2009– 2017) in combination with Immoscout24 ad price data and microdata from the ALLBUS sur- vey (1980–2016). Although, due to its low homeownership rate and conservative house price development, Germany represents a least-likely case for housing to be of importance, we find housing effects beyond traditional predictors. Generally, we find that high house prices, house price increases, and homeownership are positively associated with voting for center-right par- ties and voter turnout, while social tenancy is associated with votes for the left, but these effects weaken over time due to embourgeoisement effects. Beyond this expected left-right distinction between tenants and wealthier homeowners, we also find outliers along two other dimensions. First, there are center-periphery effects that housing can better capture than simple geographical divisions; second, house prices contain a populist dimension, for example when skyrocketing rents increase votes for the urban left or regions where house prices lag behind benefit the AfD. The paper argues against the more causal self-interest and socialization theories of the influence of housing on voting and instead suggests considering housing as an important socioeconomic proxy to explain political outcomes.
Topic:
Elections, Voting, Homeownership, and Housing
Political Geography:
Europe, Germany, and Central Europe

2. Housing and Voting in Germany: Multi-Level Evidence for the Association between House Prices and Housing Tenure and Party Outcomes, 1980–2017

Author:
Paul Beckmann, Barbara Fulda, and Sebastian Kohl
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Max Planck Sciences Po Center on Coping with Instability in Market Societies (MaxPo)
Abstract:
Traditional predictors of election outcomes in Germany are increasingly losing their explanatory power. Rather than new cultural divides, this paper introduces the idea of housing cleavages, i.e., homeownership versus tenancy and high-price versus low-price areas, drawing on macro data for electoral districts and urban neighborhoods from the last three elections (2009–2017) in combination with Immoscout24 ad price data and microdata from the ALLBUS survey (1980–2016). Although, due to its low homeownership rate and conservative house price development, Germany represents a least-likely case for housing to be of importance, we find housing effects beyond traditional predictors. Generally, we find that high house prices, house price increases, and homeownership are positively associated with voting for center-right parties and voter turnout, while social tenancy is associated with votes for the left, but these effects weaken over time due to embourgeoisement effects. Beyond this expected left-right distinction between tenants and wealthier homeowners, we also find outliers along two other dimensions. First, there are center-periphery effects that housing can better capture than simple geographical divisions; second, house prices contain a populist dimension, for example when skyrocketing rents increase votes for the urban left or regions where house prices lag behind benefit the AfD. The paper argues against the more causal self-interest and socialization theories of the influence of housing on voting and instead suggests considering housing as an important socioeconomic proxy to explain political outcomes.
Topic:
Politics, Elections, Voting, and Homeownership
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

3. The Consumption Response to Liquidity-Enhancing Transfers: Evidence from Italian Earthquakes

Author:
Antonio Acconcia and Saverio Simonelli
Publication Date:
06-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
Exploiting three earthquakes in Italy as quasi-experiments, we analyse the response of homeowners’ consumption to transfers targeted to finance housing repair and reconstruction. To the extent that funds are made available up-front, these transfers are akin to loans, mainly affecting the liquidity of households’ wealth Exploiting three earthquakes in Italy as quasi-experiments, we analyse the response of homeowners’ consumption to transfers targeted to finance housing repair and reconstruction. To the extent that funds are made available up-front, these transfers are akin to loans, mainly affecting the liquidity of households’ wealth. We show that these transfers have little effect over a multi-year horizon—they are not a windfall. Yet, access to reconstruction transfers has a strong and significant effect on non- durable consumption on impact, especially for households with a low level of liquid wealth and bank debt. In contrast, we find no significant consumption change in response to the in-kind equivalent of cash transfers. Our study contributes to the recent literature on the dynamics of the consumption demand by the wealthy hand-to-mouth, providing micro-evidence in line with the main predictions of the theory.
Topic:
Natural Disasters, Homeownership, Housing, Earthquake, and Liquidity
Political Geography:
Europe and Italy