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511. The External Sector, the State and Development in Eastern Europe

Author:
Barry Eichengreen and Richard Kohl
Publication Date:
03-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Berkeley Roundtable on the International Economy
Abstract:
Early optimists hoped that Eastern Europe might be able to emulate the high-performance economies of Asia once the shock of liberalization was absorbed. The ingredients of the East Asian “miracle,” in this view, were rapid accumulation based on high investment in physical and human capital, productivity growth based on technology transfer through licensing and direct foreign investment, rapidly expanding exports able to support industrial specialization and scale economies, and a strong state capable of guiding the development process and solving coordination problems. Emulating this recipe could provide the basis, it was hoped, for the expansion of exports and buoyant economic growth more generally.
Topic:
Development, Government, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Europe, Eastern Europe, and Asia

512. Charismatic Leadership and Democratization: A Weberian Perspective

Author:
Michael Bernhard
Publication Date:
01-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
Abstract:
Given the history of charismatic dictatorship in this century, charismatic leaders have been seen as threats to democracy. At the same time, periods of accelerated political change, such as the period of post-Communist democratization in Eastern and Central Europe, also give rise to charismatic leaders. This paper establishes the conditions under which charismatic leaders are compatible with democracy. Using a framework drawn from Max Weber's sociological writings the paper argues that charismatic leadership is only compatible with democracy when charisma is routinized in a rational-legal direction. In that routinization, however, rational-legal procedures (the rule-boundedness of power) must predominate over charismatic elements (the arbitrary and personal exercise of power). When this balance is reversed the result will be dictatorship. This discussion highlights the fact that both modern dictatorship and democracy legitimate themselves by a combination of charismatic and rational elements. It then considers whether Weber's theory can help us to understand the impact of the charismatic leadership on post-communist democratization by considering the experience of Havel in the Czech Republic, Wa__sa in Poland, and Yeltsin in Russia. It concludes with a discussion of charisma and its role in both democracy and dictatorship in the contemporary era. It finds that the similarity in the way in which modern democracy and dictatorship are legitimated augers better for the viability of authoritarian regimes than the many recent accounts which predict a diminished prospect for dictatorship in the current era might suggest.
Topic:
Democratization, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Eastern Europe

513. Surveying Subregional Relations In and Around the CIS Space

Publication Date:
12-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
EastWest Institute
Abstract:
Signs of emerging alignments between groups of states in and around the CIS space are have become more notable in recent years. The development of subregional relations is an inevitable consequence of the geographical, political and economic changes brought about by the disintegration of the USSR.
Topic:
Security, Government, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Europe

514. Baltic Sea, America Eurasia: Vision and Action for the 21st Century

Publication Date:
10-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
EastWest Institute
Abstract:
Interdependence, both political and economic, between the different parts of the Baltic Sea region is growing. This means that there is a strong case for cooperative strategies rather than policies based on zero-sum thinking. The positive outcome of the Latvian referendum should be regarded as a crucial building element to promote this cooperation.
Topic:
International Relations and Government
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, America, Europe, Eurasia, Eastern Europe, and Maryland

515. Russian Financial Crisis Assessment 5: September 9, 1998

Author:
Rado Petkov and Rick Petree
Publication Date:
09-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
EastWest Institute
Abstract:
The Communist dominated Duma sent a stern message to President Yelstin on September 7th by rejecting his nominee, Viktor Chernomyrdin, for the second time. The vote was 273 against and 138 for (with one abstention). While Chernomyrdin's showing improved substantially from the Duma's first ballot, he still fell far short of the 226 votes needed for Duma approval. Furthermore, his gains came largely from Zhirinovsky's nationalist faction, which has a crass history of trading votes to “the highest bidder.” Yelstin's opposition, on the other hand, benefited from the support of independent deputies comprising a group called “Regions of Russia”: their approval of Chernomyrdin dropped from 86% to 50% in the second round.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

516. Russian Financial Crisis Assessment 4: August 31, 1998

Author:
Allen Collinsworth, Robert Orttung, Rado Petkov, and Rick Petree
Publication Date:
08-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
EastWest Institute
Abstract:
At approximately 12.30 p.m. EST today, the Duma rejected Chernomyrdin's nomination as Prime Minister by an open ballot vote of 251-94 (with 105 abstaining). 226 votes are needed to confirm him. Chernomyrdin's own Our Home Is Russia party provided most of his support (64 votes). Zhirinovsky's party, the Liberal Democrats, abstained (49 votes). Analysts underscored the weakness of support for Chernomyrdin by noting that, in the first round of voting on the nomination of Prime Minister Kiriyenko five months ago, Kiriyenko polled 143 votes in favor. This was in secret balloting, however, which to some extent invalidates the comparison.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

517. Russian Financial Crisis Assessment 3: August 27, 1998

Author:
Rado Petkov and Rick Petree
Publication Date:
08-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
EastWest Institute
Abstract:
The latest private reports from Moscow indicate that the Duma is very likely to reject Viktor Chernomyrdin's candidacy for Prime minister next week. Tomorrow, Aug. 28 th , at 3:00 pm, the Duma and the Federation Council will meet to decide whether to recommend a vote on Chernomyrdin's candidacy. Whereas Chernomyrdin's chances are bleak, the fluid nature of current Russian political situation makes it impossible to firmly rule out his confirmation as prime minister, a post which he very much wants.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

518. Russian Financial Crisis Assessment 2: August 25, 1998

Author:
Rado Petkov and Rick Petree
Publication Date:
08-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
EastWest Institute
Abstract:
Since our Aug. 20th report, the situation in Russia has developed dramatically. On Friday (Aug. 21st), the lower house of the Russian parliament (the Duma) overwhelmingly called for Yeltsin's resignation and changes in the government and the leadership of the central bank. The Duma also passed a non-binding resolution demanding nationalization of some banks and restriction of foreign participation in domestic capital markets. In response, the RTS index of leading Russian shares fell 5.56% to 81.76 on negligible trading volume of $4.2 million. Central bank head Dubinin announced plans to activate Russia's precious metals reserves (approximately $5 billion of $15.1 billion total foreign exchange reserves) to support the ruble. On Sunday, Aug. 23rd, in an action anticipated in our Aug. 17th report, Yeltsin dismissed Prime Minister Sergei Kiriyenko and installed in his place Viktor Chernomyrdin.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

519. Russian Financial Crisis Assessment 1: August 20, 1998

Author:
Rado Petkov and Rick Petree
Publication Date:
08-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
EastWest Institute
Abstract:
Russian capital markets were already in what George Soros described as a “financial meltdown in . . . its terminal phase” on August 12th. Since then, capital markets have deteriorated significantly in reaction to measures announced by the Russian Government on Monday, Aug. 17th (summarized in Section II below). IEWS is actively evaluating the nature and extent of the crisis and trying to project its likely course.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

520. Computers and Labour Markets: International Evidence

Author:
Francis Kramarz
Publication Date:
10-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
The rapid diffusion of computers has widely changed the consequences of computer use on the labour market. While at the beginning of the eighties knowledge of computers was an obvious advantage in a career, this same knowledge is now so commonplace that the inability to use these tools is widely seen in many industries as a professional handicap. In relation to such drastic transformations, changes in the North American wage structure during the eighties in favour of the better educated have been interpreted by many analysts as evidence of skill-biased technical change. Evidence outside the US, and in particular in Europe, seems to support the idea that similar transformations affected most other labour markets.
Topic:
Economics, Government, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United States and Europe