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131. The German Election: No vote for Europe?

Author:
Timo Behr and Tuomas Iso-Markku
Publication Date:
08-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The outcome of the German federal elections on September 22nd will have a significant impact on the management of the on-going eurozone crisis and set the tone for the future course of European integration. Although the EU and the euro are largely absent from current electoral debates, significant differences on these issues exist both inside and between German political parties in the run-up to the September polls. However, in the absence of significant debate, fundamental decisions over the future of EU integration will be postponed until after the election, when a cross-party compromise appears more feasible. Regardless of the election outcome, the next German government is likely to prove more conciliatory on austerity policies in Europe and will boost domestic spending, but will retain some red lines on further EU integration. While the rhetoric and the pace of change might differ significantly depending on the shape that the next coalition government takes, German eurozone policies will continue to trade fiscal solidarity for structural reforms.
Topic:
Economics, Markets, Financial Crisis, and Governance
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

132. Güney Avrupa'da Ekonomik Kriz ve Toplumsal Hareketler

Author:
Burak Cop
Publication Date:
02-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Global Political Trends Center
Abstract:
The southern European countries are those who have been affected the most by the EU sovereign debt crisis. However, compared with Greece and Spain, Italy and Portugal are in relatively better positions in terms of their debt/GDP rate and unemployment figures. There has been a strong popular reaction against the austerity measures in Greece, a country where leftist parties and trade unions have been traditionally strong. Due to the miserable conditions of the economy, the Greek government has been prevented from taking the publics demands into account. It is important to note that the political situation in Greece is very unstable leading to the potential relaxing of the austerity measures. There is no such instability in Spain and Portugal, making the probability of the relaxation of austerity measures unlikely, especially in Spain. Italy has the same potential for political instability as does Greece, and given that it is a country with relatively better conditions, in comparison with the others, some relaxation of the austerity measures may be expected if the centre-left coalition comes to power.
Topic:
Debt, Economics, Global Recession, Financial Crisis, Governance, and Reform
Political Geography:
Europe, Greece, and Spain

133. SOSYAL DEMOKRASİ KÜRESEL ÇEVRE İÇİN BİR SİYASAL ALTERNATİF OLABİLİR Mİ?

Author:
Yunus Emre and Çağla Gül Çağla Gül
Publication Date:
01-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Global Political Trends Center
Abstract:
Social democracy was born as a reaction to the social problems created by capitalist modernization in the nineteenth century. It had a central role in the making of the modern European societies. During the twentieth century, it had immense organizational successes and election victories transforming political relationships in those societies. In the 1970s, orientation towards social democracy increased within many of the countries in the global periphery. Today, social democracy prevails as an influential and successful political and social power system in these periphery countries. This paper seeks to answer whether social democracy should continue to be a model for other countries in the periphery.
Topic:
Democratization, Economics, Political Economy, and Governance
Political Geography:
Europe

134. The European Citizens'Initiative: Next Big Thing or New False Good Idea ?

Author:
Franklin Dehousse
Publication Date:
07-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
One innovative element of the Lisbon Treaty was the creation of a European Citizens' Initiative (ECI). At the time, this was sometimes hailed as a fundamental change in the European institutional system. A few years after the entry into force of the Treaty, however, much less is heard about this “first truly transnational instrument of modern direct democracy”, this “revolution in disguise”, this “very innovative and symbolic” provision5. This could seem surprising at first sight. Since the entry into force of the Treaty, the implementation of this provision has been remarkably rapid. Meanwhile, new arguments have risen concerning the lack of democratic legitimacy of the European Union, and the lack of connection between the European institutions and the citizens.
Topic:
Civil Society, Democratization, Regional Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, and Governance
Political Geography:
Europe

135. Africa's Turn

Author:
Macky Sall
Publication Date:
10-2013
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Foreign Affairs
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
Since it gained independence from France in 1960, the West African country of Senegal has been a bastion of stability and democracy on a continent that has seen relatively little of either. During the presidency of Abdoulaye Wade (2000–2012), however, the Senegalese exception seemed under threat. The elderly Wade grew increasingly authoritarian and corrupt, and he managed to run for a third term even though the constitution prohibited him from doing so. But in March 2012, Senegalese voters dealt Wade a decisive defeat, electing the reformist candidate Macky Sall instead. Trained in France as a geological engineer, Sall had served in a number of government posts under Wade, including prime minister, before publicly breaking with him in 2007. In opposition, Sall created a new political party; served a second term as mayor of his hometown, Fatick; and organized an anti-Wade coalition. Sall spoke with Foreign Affairs senior editor Stuart Reid in Dakar in June, days before U.S. President Barack Obama's arrival in Senegal for a state visit.
Topic:
Governance
Political Geography:
Africa and Europe

136. Templates for Trade: Change, Persistence and Path Dependence in U. S. and EU Preferential Trade Agreements

Author:
Ali Arbia
Publication Date:
09-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Kolleg-Forschergruppe (KFG)
Abstract:
Over the last two decades, Preferential Trade Agreements (PTAs) proliferated through the international trading system. PTAs created a web of rules paralleling and extending the system of the World Trade Organization (WTO). PTAs are an increasingly dominant feature of the international trading system, adding to a steadily increasing complexity. Their content is rarely studied systematically across agreements, and the mechanisms leading to their genesis are little understood. It is typically assumed that actors like the European Union (EU) and the United States (U. S.) work off a template when negotiating PTAs. Some argue that this allows them, amongst others, to impose a regulatory regime. This working paper attempts to put this claim to the test. Using diffusion theory as framework, it analyzes PTAs signed by the EU, the U. S. and their regional trading partners. Understanding the use of templates will help negotiating parties to assess the margin of maneuver when negotiating PTAs with the EU and the U. S. as well as the rigidity of their mandate. The analysis is conducted on a regional and a domestic level using aggregated data on PTA content and a qualitative assessment of selected PTA provisions (anti-corruption, environment and cultural cooperation). The study finds that the flexibility of these mandates is considerable and that templates, if used at all, can change substantially over time.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Treaties and Agreements, and Governance
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

137. Claims to Legitimacy Matter: Why Sanctions Fail to Instigate Democratization in Authoritarian Regimes

Author:
Christian von Soest and Julia Grauvogel
Publication Date:
10-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
International sanctions have been one of the most commonly used tools of Western foreign policy in the post‐Cold War era to instigate democratization globally. However, despite long‐term external pressure through sanctions imposed by the European Union, the United States and/or the United Nations, nondemocratic rule in cases such as Belarus, Cuba, Eritrea, Iran, North Korea and Syria has proven to be extremely persistent. In this paper, we analyze a new global dataset on sanctions from 1990 to 2011 and assess which international and domestic factors account for the persistence of nondemocratic rule in targeted regimes. The results of a fuzzy set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA) of 120 episodes of sanctions provide new insights for the research on both sanctions and authoritarian regimes. Most significantly, sanctions strengthen nondemocratic rule if the regime manages to incorporate their existence into its legitimation strategy. Such a “rally‐round‐the‐flag” effect occurs most often in cases where comprehensive sanctions targeting the entire population are imposed on regimes that enjoy strong claims to legitimacy and have only limited linkages to the sanction sender.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Democratization, Governance, and Sanctions
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, North Korea, United Nations, and Syria

138. Macedonia - A country in crisis

Author:
Erwan Fouéré
Publication Date:
09-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
Macedonia is a country in deep trouble. Under a veneer of normality lies a climate of deep mistrust between all the political parties and between the main ethnic communities. Several incidents of inter-ethnic violence took place in the capital city earlier this year and are on the increase. Political dialogue, insofar as it exists between the parties, remains confrontational.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Corruption, Ethnic Conflict, Politics, and Governance
Political Geography:
Europe

139. Proposal for a Stabilisation Fund for the EMU

Author:
Bernard Delbecque
Publication Date:
10-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
This paper argues that it should be possible to complement Europe's Economic and Monetary Union with an insurance-type shock absorption mechanism to increase the resilience of member countries to economic shocks and reduce output volatility. Such a mechanism would neither require the establishment of a central authority, nor would it lead to permanent transfers between countries. For this mechanism to become a reality, however, it would be necessary to overcome certain technical problems linked to the difficulty of anticipating correctly the position of an economy in the business cycle.
Topic:
Economics, Regional Cooperation, and Governance
Political Geography:
Europe

140. Global commons: between cooperation and competition

Author:
Gerald Stang
Publication Date:
04-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Union Institute for Security Studies
Abstract:
Rapid economic development and increasing international trade are leading to a more crowded international stage and raising new challenges in the 'global commons' – those domains that are not under the control or jurisdiction of any state but are open for use by countries, companies and individuals from around the world. Their management involves increasingly complex processes to accommodate and integrate the interests and responsibilities of states, international organisations and a host of non-state actors.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, Globalization, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, and Governance
Political Geography:
Europe