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81. Capital flows, the carry trade and 'sand in the wheels'

Author:
Stephen Grenville
Publication Date:
02-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
The 'carry trade', in which capital shifts from countries with low interest rates to countries with significantly higher rates, has become an important element of international capital flows over the past decade. With low interest rates in the United States, Japan, the UK and much of the rest of Europe expected to persist for some time, these flows seem likely to become larger in the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis. Particularly for the emerging countries with shallow financial markets, interest-sensitive inflows have the potential to be disruptive. Exchange rates will tend to be overvalued for sustained periods, punctuated by sharp depreciations. These distorted and varying price signals will be unhelpful for good policy-making and steady economic growth.
Topic:
Emerging Markets, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Foreign Direct Investment, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, United Kingdom, and Europe

82. Looking afresh at the external representation of the EU in the international arena

Author:
Michael Emerson and Piotr Maciej Kaczyński
Publication Date:
07-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
In the wake of the Lisbon Treaty, it is important to review the present arrangements for the institutional representation of the European Union in international organisations, and more broadly, in the processes of international negotiations and the way the EU acts as contracting party to conventions of international law.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Globalization, Regional Cooperation, and Governance
Political Geography:
Europe

83. The Transatlantic Economy 2010: Annual Survey of Jobs, Trade and Investment between the United States and Europe

Author:
Daniel S. Hamilton and Joseph P. Quinlan
Publication Date:
01-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Transatlantic Relations
Abstract:
Despite the recession, the United States and Europe remain each other's most important foreign commercial markets. No other commercial artery in the world is as integrated and fused as the transatlantic economy. We estimate that the transatlantic economy continues to generate close to $4.28 trillion in total commercial sales a year and employs up to 14 million workers in mutually “onshored” jobs on both sides of the Atlantic.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Global Recession, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

84. Adapting the U.S.-EU Summit for a Globalized World

Author:
Annette Heuser and Frances G. Burwell
Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
The U.S.-EU Summit has lost its moorings. The Obama administration's decision on January 31, 2010 to postpone the May 2010 U.S.-EU Summit was a tacit recognition that the Summit lacks clarity of purpose and strategic vision. Neither side had successfully articulated any particular reason to meet. While Obama's decision was largely based on domestic political calculus, the move prompted some deep soul-searching in Brussels. Confidence in Brussels about the new administration's commitment to the U.S.-EU Summit process, and to working with the EU in general, reached a low point when Anne-Marie Slaughter, the Director of Policy Planning at the U.S. State Department, said that the Summit should take place “only when necessary.”
Topic:
NATO, Globalization, and International Cooperation
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, and North America

85. Living Standards in an Ageing, Greener, Knowledge Economy: Towards a period of lean cows?

Author:
Jørgen Mortensen
Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
This paper provides evidence on past growth of productivity, analysing the evolution of labour productivity, capital deepening and multi-factor productivity. Based on a literature review of recent studies, it shows that economic growth is increasingly attributable to the accumulation of intangible capital and that consequently, an increasing share of conventionally measured rise in labour productivity has, in fact, been ploughed back into the economy as intangible capital formation. In addition, it shows that on average for the developed countries examined, the growth of total factor productivity has been the main determinant of the increase in living standards over the 50 years from 1960 to 2010. It also demonstrates a striking slowdown in the growth of both productivity and living standards during this period. Looking ahead, it argues that the period 2010 to 2030 is likely to see a considerable expansion of tangible and intangible capital formation and lower growth of multi-factor productivity. The paper therefore concludes that over the next 20 years the scope for growth in living standards in the developed economies will be very limited, on average around half a percent per annum, with serious consequences for social conditions and a likely aggravation of inequalities.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, Human Welfare, and Labor Issues
Political Geography:
Europe

86. Riding the Tiger: China's Rise and the Liberal World Order

Author:
Trine Flockhart and Li Xing
Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
The re-emergence of China as a key political and economic actor since the liberalization of the late 1970s may well turn out to be one of the most important developments in recent world history. China's economic impact is already felt worldwide, cemented by China's new status as the world's second largest economy, after it overtook Germany in 2009 and Japan in 2010. The question now is what impact China's increasing economic and political power will have on the existing international system and established institutional order, built largely on Western principles and liberal values that are not shared by China.
Topic:
Globalization and International Cooperation
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, China, and Europe

87. A New Society in the Making: European Integration and European Social Groups

Author:
Juan Díez Medrano
Publication Date:
04-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determination, Princeton University
Abstract:
This paper connects with a recent and growing interest in the study of the societal impact of European integration and in the distinction of globalization and European integration effects. The paper uses the Eurobarometer study 67.1 to examine two related issues: 1) the segmentation of national social groups into “national” and “European” segments and 2) the contribution of the European integration process to this segmentation. Through statistical analysis, I argue that there is some segmentation of national social groups and that this segmentation is more advanced at the level of consumer practices than at the level of identification and political attitudes and values. I also contradict prevailing beliefs in showing that although European integration underlies changes in the Europeanization of personal networks in general, its impact may have been greater, or at least as great, on the lower classes than on the middle classes. I propose that the main mediating mechanism for this effect is the cheapening of opportunities for travel in Europe.
Topic:
Globalization and Social Stratification
Political Geography:
Europe

88. Five Surprises of the Great Recession

Author:
Uri Dadush and Vera Eidelman
Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The Great Recession included five major surprises: (1) the severity of the global trade and output collapse, (2) the United States suffered a milder than expected recession, (3) Europe saw the onset of a severe sovereign debt crisis, (4) China grew at an extraordinary rate even though it's greatly dependent on exports, and (5) Latin America showed remarkable resilience.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, Global Recession, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States, China, Europe, and Latin America

89. The Armed Forces' Development at the Beginning of the Twenty-First Century from the Polish Perspective

Author:
Stanislaw Zajas
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Connections
Institution:
Partnership for Peace Consortium of Defense Academies and Security Studies Institutes
Abstract:
The turn of the twenty-first century is a period of very important and decisive changes in international politics, particularly in the security arena, both in relation to the global system and to individual countries and societies. This dynamic process of change is above all connected with the dissolution of the Warsaw Pact and the expansion of security and economic development, especially in Europe. Many countries' achievement of independence on democratic principles, combined with the significant enlargement of NATO and the European Union, has increased the sense of integration and safety as perceived by many nations in the region. The division of the world into two opposing blocs disappeared, and the notion of the Cold War is now primarily considered only in historical perspective. However, these changes do not necessarily mean that we live in the world without threats. Although the probability of the outbreak of an armed conflict on the global scale is very low, new security threats have emerged. The unsettling quality of these threats lies in their asymmetric character, which means that it is very often difficult to identify a particular enemy, rendering them hard to combat. However, it should be stressed that, although these threats may originate in remote areas of the globe, they may also have a local impact through the increasingly omnipresent character of the worldwide communication networks that lie at the root of globalization.
Topic:
NATO, Cold War, and Globalization
Political Geography:
Europe

90. Building Partnerships in Peace Operations: The Limits of the Global/Regional Approach

Author:
Thierry Tardy
Publication Date:
05-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
A consensus seems to exist on the need to tackle contemporary intra-state conflicts through a multiplicity of actors who display different comparative advantages and levels of expertise. For the United Nations as well as for the regional organisations that, since the end of the Cold War, have emerged as crisis management actors, working together is the way forward. The UN and the EU run or have run simultaneous operations in Africa (Democratic Republic of the Congo and Chad) and Kosovo and have largely institutionalised their cooperation; the UN took over operations initially deployed by the African Union in West Africa and in Burundi and the two institutions have created a hybrid UN-AU mission in Darfur; the EU is assisting the AU in the building-up of its Stand-by Force and finances AU operations; the EU, the OSCE and NATO have for some time shared the burden of security management in the Balkans. As noted in a UN Department of Peacekeeping Operations (DPKO) document, “reinforcing interoperability with key partners […] can enhance cooperation and ensure that we maximise finite global peacekeeping resources”. Indeed, given the scope of crisis management needs, not least the UN overstretch, burden-sharing has become an imperative and its corollary, inter-institutional partnerships, equally central. Yet, the establishment of partnerships among international institutions is facing important political and technical difficulties that make the prospect for an interlocking system unlikely.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Globalization, International Cooperation, Peace Studies, Regional Cooperation, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Kosovo, and United Nations