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51. World Trade 1970-2010: Globalisation, Regionalisation and Reallocation

Author:
Arne Melchior
Publication Date:
08-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Using data for more than 200 countries, split into nine regions, we study world trade in goods during 1970-2010. The largest changes are the declining relative importance of Western Europe, and the increasing role for Asia. The intra-regional trade of Asia grew particularly fast; from 4 to 16% of world trade. Due to growing intra-regional trade in Europe and Asia, world trade became more intra-regional until 1995. Manufacturing trade is more regionalised, whereas commodity trade is more globalised. After 1995, extra-regional trade flows grew faster so there was “globalisation” with trade travelling longer distances and a rising share for commodities. From 2000, smaller trade regions such as Africa and Latin America have increased their shares of world trade; reversing the trend over the 30 preceding years.
Topic:
Globalization, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Regional Cooperation, and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Europe, Asia, and Western Europe

52. Engaging African diasporas for peace: cornerstones for an emerging EU agenda

Author:
Judith Vorrath
Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Union Institute for Security Studies
Abstract:
Over the last decade, researchers and policy-makers have paid increasing attention to diasporas. They have focused on diasporas not merely as a challenge, but as a source of largely untapped potential. Their transnational nature and peculiar position as non-state actors linking host and home countries has been identified as an important basis for engagement. Diaspora groups from sub-Saharan Africa in Europe, which according to a 2008 Council of Europe parliamentary report on immigration are roughly estimated to comprise between 3.5 and 8 million people, are not only a relevant force, but often come from homelands that have experienced or are still facing armed conflict. Against this background, this Occasional Paper addresses the question of what contribution diaspora communities can make to promoting peace in their homelands and how the European Union can engage with African diasporas in the field of peace and security.
Topic:
Development, Globalization, Migration, Diaspora, and Immigration
Political Geography:
Africa and Europe

53. Could Turkey Be a Dominant Regional Power?: The Rise of Turkey as a Country of Middle-East and Europe

Author:
Bulend Aydin Ertekin
Publication Date:
05-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Alternatives: Turkish Journal of International Relations
Institution:
Center for International Conflict Resolution at Yalova University
Abstract:
According to the common idea, "the economic power determines the political power." By this general principle, when we look at the powerful states, we see that these states (countries) have, at the same time, the powerful political effect on the other actors. In this paper, some trade and economic data of Turkey are shown in order to localize its place in the World rankings. By this purpose, this paper argues the fact that Turkey which, being one of the countries belonging G-20, has tried since 1991 to play a big role in its bilateral relations in Caucasia, Central Asia and Middle East (CCAME). However, when the data of international business of Turkey and those of each one of the countries of Central Asia treated in the contents of research are studied, it is seen very clearly that the influence of Turkey in Central Asia is not very dominant or does not create a dominating effect over the economic plan in spite of the existence of the diplomatic effects, visa facilities and the visits based upon the cultural level and mutually testified. Without any doubt, although nobody can deny the existence and the probability of the gradual growth of Turkey's relations in CCAME's countries, Turkey, whose face is turned mainly towards the occident and the large majority of trade made within the European countries,tries to be an influential actor in the determined areas. Naturally, in spite of the celebration of Nawruz with the Turkic World, acting as a Muslim country in Middle East, and accepting the norms of European Union as a European democratic and laicized country in Europe, Turkey presents several identities and makes it a multi-colored actor who can be used in favor of Turkey's interests.
Topic:
Foreign Policy and Globalization
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, and Middle East

54. Europe's Innovation Union—Beyond Techno-Nationalism?

Author:
Dieter Ernst
Publication Date:
08-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
This paper traces recent transformations in Europe's innovation policy - the move towards EU - wide policy coordination in the form of an “Innovation Union”. A deep fiscal crisis and increasingly severe austerity policies are slowing down Europe's move towards greater openness and internationalization of its innovation system.
Topic:
Debt, Economics, Globalization, Science and Technology, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe

55. Europe's Single Supervisory Mechanism and the Long Journey Towards Banking Union

Author:
Nicolas Véron
Publication Date:
12-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
On June 29, 2012, the heads of state and government of the 17 euro area countries issued a landmark statement that started with the sentences “We affirm that it is imperative to break the vicious circle between banks and sovereigns. The Commission will present Proposals on the basis of Article 127(6) for a single supervisory mechanism shortly. We ask the Council to consider these Proposals as a matter of urgency by the end of 2012. When an effective single supervisory mechanism is established, involving the ECB [European Central Bank] for banks in the euro area the ESM [European Stability Mechanism] could, following a regular decision, have the possibility to recapitalize banks directly” (Euro Area Summit Statement 2012). This statement was received by the investor community and the European public as marking the initial step towards a European banking union, i.e., a shift of the key instruments of banking policy from the national to the European level to enable the formation and maintenance of an integrated European banking system.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:
Europe

56. Global Governance Audit

Author:
Hakan Altinay
Publication Date:
02-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
We frequently treat the changing constellation that has come to be referred to as global governance as a lackluster fait accompli. Nobody has masterminded it. Nobody is really in charge. Almost everybody has reasons to be unhappy about what they view as its current suboptimal state. As such, global governance is not an easy phenomenon to assess or audit. The benchmarks and scales to be used are not obvious. Yet an audit attempt is nevertheless necessary, if for no other reason than to start to form a deliberated assessment, to develop some benchmarks, and to refine our questions for the future.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, and Governance
Political Geography:
China and Europe

57. Credit at Times of Stress: Latin American Lessons from the Global Financial Crisis

Author:
Liliana Rojas-Suarez and Carlos Montoro
Publication Date:
02-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
The financial systems in emerging market economies during the 2008–09 global financial crisis performed much better than in previous crisis episodes, albeit with significant differences across regions. For example, real credit growth in Asia and Latin America was less affected than in Central and Eastern Europe. This paper identifies the factors at both the country and the bank levels that contributed to the behavior of real credit growth in Latin America during the global financial crisis. The resilience of real credit during the crisis was highly related to policies, measures and reforms implemented in the pre-crisis period. In particular, we find that the best explanatory variables were those that gauged the economy's capacity to withstand an external financial shock. Key were balance sheet measures such as the economy's overall currency mismatches and external debt ratios (measuring either total debt or short-term debt). The quality of pre-crisis credit growth mattered as much as its rate of expansion. Credit expansions that preserved healthy balance sheet measures (the “quality” dimension) proved to be more sustainable. Variables signalling the capacity to set countercyclical monetary and fiscal policies during the crisis were also important determinants. Moreover, financial soundness characteristics of Latin American banks, such as capitalization, liquidity and bank efficiency, also played a role in explaining the dynamics of real credit during the crisis. We also found that foreign banks and banks which had expanded credit growth more before the crisis were also those that cut credit most. The methodology used in this paper includes the construction of indicators of resilience of real credit growth to adverse external shocks in a large number of emerging markets, not just in Latin America. As additional data become available, these indicators could be part of a set of analytical tools to assess how emerging market economies are preparing themselves to cope with the adverse effects of global financial turbulence on real credit growth.
Topic:
Debt, Economics, Emerging Markets, Globalization, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe, Asia, and Latin America

58. Country Forecast: Global outlook

Publication Date:
04-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
Three years after the global economy reached its lowest point in three-quarters of a century, the recovery remains incomplete and the outlook uncertain. On March 9th 2009, the capitalisation of Morgan Stanley\'s global stockmarket index fell to US$26trn, nearly 60% below its 2007 peak. Today, the value of the world\'s stockmarkets has yet to return to the pre-crisis level—nor has the confidence of most consumers and businesses. The excesses of the last ten years—the personal debt accumulated early in the last decade and the public debt added during the recession—have saddled many countries with weak economic foundations and little or no resilience to shocks. This has left the US economy, in particular, struggling for a third straight year to lock in faster growth. It has left debt-ravaged Europe in recession and China manoeuvring unsteadily to deflate a bubble. On the brighter side, the global economy will grow again this year and the imbalances that built up over the past decade will continue to unwind. But global growth will be slower this year than last, and a host of risks—from elevated oil prices to war in the Middle East, to the collapse of Europe\'s single currency—will weigh on confidence and reduce spending and investment.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, Markets, Global Recession, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States, China, Europe, and Middle East

59. The Strategic Rationale for Promoting Transatlantic Values in a Globalized World

Author:
Jeffrey Lightfoot and Simona Kordosova
Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Imagine for a moment if in the autumn of 1945 the great leaders of the transatlantic community had let the ravages and cynicism of war strip them of their vision, ambition, and hope for a better future for mankind. Who could have blamed Jean Monnet, Harry Truman, Robert Schumann, George Marshall, and others if they had decided that the idea of forging an enduring Atlantic community of shared security, prosperity, and values was just too difficult to achieve and too hard to explain to their embittered and weary citizens? Yet without their sheer will to overcome Europe's history of chauvinistic bloodshed and America's instincts for insularity, the world would be far less safe and free.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Democratization, and Globalization
Political Geography:
Europe

60. America's Voluntary Standards System--A "Best Practice" Model for Innovation Policy?

Author:
Dieter Ernst
Publication Date:
02-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
For its proponents, America's voluntary standards system is a "best practice" model for innovation policy. Foreign observers however are concerned about possible drawbacks of a standards system that is largely driven by the private sector. There are doubts, especially in Europe and China, whether the American system can balance public and private interests in times of extraordinary national and global challenges to innovation.
Topic:
Development, Globalization, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, Science and Technology, Intellectual Property/Copyright, and Governance
Political Geography:
China, America, and Europe