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81. Can Armenia succeed in aligning with thе Wеst at the expense of Russia?

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
Armenia's foreign policy has taken a nеw direction following Azеrbaijan’s military attack on Armenian tеrritory on Sеptеmbеr 19, 2023. This attack resulted in Azerbaijan gaining complеtе control over thе disputеd Nagorno-Karabakh rеgion. As a result, Armеnia is now shifting its focus toward bolstеring tiеs with thе Wеst, potеntially jeopardizing its longstanding alliancе with Russia. This shift raises questions about Russia's futurе influеncе in the Caucasus region and Yеrеvan's ability to genuinely develop stronger rеlations with thе Wеst, possibly undеrcutting its tiеs with Russia in thе current gеopolitical landscapе.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, Armed Conflict, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Armenia, Azerbaijan, South Caucasus, and Nagorno-Karabakh

82. China’s strategic relevance to the port of Rotterdam

Author:
Xiaoxue Martin and Frans-Paul van der Putten
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
This report analyses whether recent, current and expected China-related developments may threaten the strategic position of the port of Rotterdam in terms of freight flows and how this might play out. This report is based on research conducted on behalf of the Port of Rotterdam Authority. The report comprises four sections covering the following topics, respectively: Changes in Chinese government policy and Chinese corporate strategies towards European seaports, and specifically the Rotterdam port area. Changing attitudes of the EU and the Netherlands towards Chinese influence in European seaports due to geopolitical factors. Chinese interests and ownership in the port of Rotterdam, including the (future) development of Chinese FDI and freight flow. Sanction scenarios and changing freight flows.
Topic:
Development, Geopolitics, Logistics, and Ports
Political Geography:
China, Europe, Netherlands, and Rotterdam

83. The European Union in a crowded Horn of Africa

Author:
Guido Lanfranchi
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
This policy brief explores the engagement of the European Union (EU) in the Horn of Africa, in light of the growing regional presence of other foreign actors, namely the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey, China, and Russia. Although the EU has defined the Horn as a “geo-strategic priority”, the bloc’s approach to the region is not yet well defined. The EU’s engagement would benefit from a clearer definition of the EU’s interests and objectives in the region in a clear order of priority. This could then inform a reflection on which tools can be best mobilized to achieve such interests. In this regard, the EU’s development cooperation efforts are an important added value that the bloc brings to the region, which may be leveraged more strategically to achieve the EU’s objectives.The growing presence of other foreign actors in the Horn has important implications not only for the Horn itself, but also for the EU’s regional engagement. When the interests of some of these actors overlap with those of the EU, a degree of cooperation would be beneficial for all sides. The domains of infrastructure development and humanitarian aid offer a meaningful entry point to explore such cooperation. In other instances, on the other hand, the EU may need to push back on the activities of other foreign actors when they directly run against the bloc’s interests. Overall, however, the EU should be careful not to allow geopolitical considerations to guide its approach towards the region. Rather than being preoccupied with keeping the Horn’s stakeholders outside of the orbit of its geopolitical rivals, the EU should focus on deepening ties with (state or non-state) actors that share its own interests and values – an approach that can lead to more reliable partnerships that deliver on the EU’s interests in the longer term.
Topic:
Development, European Union, Geopolitics, and Strategic Engagement
Political Geography:
Europe and Horn of Africa

84. Europe’s Multiple Futures: Four Futurescapes for Europe’s Geopolitical Positioning in 2030

Author:
Tim Bosch, Paloma Muñoz Quick, Elisabeth Suh, Dominik Tolksdorf, and Georgios Kolliarakis
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
This report provides distinct storylines envisioning Europe's potential futures up to 2030. Contrary to traditional binary evaluations, these four scenarios avoid direct labeling as "good" or "bad." They delve into crucial drivers, from labor market integration to global affairs such as Russia-Ukraine conflict and Europe-China relations. Addressing the urgent need for "futures literacy" among policymakers and experts, this initiative by DGAP experts offers interpretative frameworks for upcoming challenges. Rather than predicting specifics, the scenarios prompt reconsideration of narratives and introduce counter-intuitive thinking modes for addressing global shifts and foreign policy challenges.
Topic:
Climate Change, Migration, Science and Technology, European Union, Geopolitics, Future, and Geoeconomics
Political Geography:
Europe

85. Security, Industry, and the Lost European Vision (#EDINA II): How Russia’s War in Ukraine Is Changing the European Defense Technological and Industrial Base

Author:
Christian Mölling and Sören Hellmonds
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
The DGAP, in collaboration with the Friedrich-Naumann-Foundation, initiated the EDINA project to examine the post-2022 European Defense Technological and Industrial Base (EDTIB) after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Drawing insights from defense experts across NATO members, the study highlights the evolving European defense landscape, emphasizing security of supply concerns and the balance between national and EU initiatives. The report underscores pivotal forthcoming decisions in Europe's defense amidst changing geopolitical dynamics.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, European Union, Geopolitics, Industry, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe

86. EU-China relations in an uncertain world: Walking a geopolitical tightrope

Author:
Sinikukka Saari, Niklas Helwig, Juha Jokela, and Mikael Mattlin
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:
After the 2008 financial crisis, the EU’s approach towards China shifted from overconfidence in European normative power to an embrace of unconditional economic engagement with China. The EU policy of de-risking is critically important, but it needs to be carefully considered, managed, and communicated to China. US-China tensions and American debates on China impact the EU’s approach. Nevertheless, there are significant differences between European and US positions on China irrespective of which party holds power in the US. China’s position on Russia’s war of aggression is a make-or-break issue for the EU. By actively enabling Russia’s invasion, China is harming its own long-term interests in Europe and globally. It is in Europe’s interests to avoid framing current international dynamics in terms of “the West and the rest”. Although this discourse may be popular domestically, there is a danger of it becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Topic:
International Relations, European Union, Geopolitics, and Economic Policy
Political Geography:
China, Europe, Asia, and United States of America

87. Here are Four Things the West gets Wrong about Africa

Author:
Nina Wilén
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
External powers are intensifying their efforts to woo African states and their leaders in a context of Great Power Competition. Russian, Chinese and Western leaders are upping their game with new visits, initiatives, investments and strategies aimed at increasing their influence on the continent. Yet, while Western states spend comparatively large financial and human resources in Africa, these investments do not always seem to translate into the intended effects. This brief looks at four things that the West gets wrong about Africa and argues that to create long-term and credible partnerships with African partners there is a need to go beyond the Great Power Competition lens, lower the ambitions, and dial down on the normative language. This, while realising that presence does not equal influence, but absence almost certainly excludes it.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Partnerships, Geopolitics, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:
Africa, Russia, China, and Europe

88. Uncovering uncomfortable truths: the geopolitics of EU gas imports in the aftermath of the invasion of Ukraine

Author:
Moniek de Jong
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
With the conclusion of the winter season, it appears that the European Union (EU) has successfully avoided the anticipated gas shortages and blackouts. This outcome can be attributed to a mild winter, a decrease of 13% in gas consumption, and a substantial influx of LNG imports. While the EU can breathe a sigh of relief, there is no room for complacency. The unprecedented LNG imports and significant decline in Russian gas imports have altered the EU’s gas import profile, and the potential security risks associated with these “new” gas suppliers have received little attention. This begs the question of whether this new natural gas import portfolio is truly advantageous and what alternatives the EU has.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, European Union, Geopolitics, Gas, Imports, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe

89. Catch-27: The contradictory thinking about enlargement in the EU

Author:
Piotr Buras and Engjellushe Morina
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
Russia’s full-scale war on Ukraine has reenergised the enlargement debate. Most member states now see enlargement as a way to respond to the geopolitical reality and strengthen the EU in its immediate neighbourhood. However, while the geopolitical arguments in favour of enlargement are even stronger today than they were 20 years ago, the process is likely to face more obstacles than it did back then. In most member states, the interest in enlargement is outweighed by concerns about the transformation that institutional reforms could bring about. Possible changes in the EU’s balance of power, the unresolved issue of the protection of the rule of law, and bilateral conflicts are major obstacles. To make a credible offer to candidate countries, the EU should agree on an internal reform process alongside a timeline for the next steps in the enlargement process at the EU summit in December. Regardless of the outcome of the internal reform debate, it should be ready to offer candidate countries at least participation in the single market, access to the EU’s budget, and observer status in EU institutions by 2030.
Topic:
Reform, European Union, Geopolitics, Russia-Ukraine War, and Enlargement
Political Geography:
Europe

90. The European Union’s major enlargement to the East and Western Balkans

Author:
Vicente Palacio
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Fundación Alternativas
Abstract:
The geopolitical urgency created in Europe by the Russian invasion and the war in Ukraine has moved the project of a ‘major enlargement’ to the Western Balkans (Albania, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Kosovo, North Macedonia, Montenegro and Serbia) and to the East (Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia) at the top of the European political agenda. This new enlargement could transform the EU in a fundamental way. After the Informal European Council of June 2002, the recent informal European Council summit held in Granada on 6 October under the Spanish Presidency of the Council of the EU expressed consensus on the intention to undertake that enlargement. That set off a long process in which this ‘major enlargement’ needs to be addressed in terms of four aspects: how it is done (institutions and reforms); how and how much is invested in it (resources); what it is invested in (policies) and where it is invested (geographical areas).
Topic:
European Union, Geopolitics, Regional Politics, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe and Western Balkans