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261. A New Paradigm of International Relations

Author:
A. Orlov
Publication Date:
06-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
East View Information Services
Abstract:
Today, we are watching how the present stage of world history is coming to an end amid great or even fundamental changes of the geopolitical picture of the world. The twenty-five-year-long partnership between Russia and the West (never easy and never straightforward), which began back in the last years of Soviet perestroika, has ended. It will be probably replaced with a new structure of international cooperation much more pragmatic and devoid of illusions and exaggerated expectations nurtured by Russia rather than the West. It is wrong to expect that when the situation in Ukraine has been stabilized (it will be stabilized sooner or later) the world (or at least the part which stretches from Vladivostok in the east to Vancouver in the west) will go back to its pre-crisis state. There is no way back. The old bridges were burned while new bridges have not yet been built. The paradigm of world development geared at the prospects of long-term partnership (which, for a long time, had looked the only option) was destroyed.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Politics, History, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and United States of America

262. The Russia-Ukraine Conflict: Current Situation, Consequences, Prospects

Author:
Valeriya Klymenko and Hanna Pashkova
Publication Date:
01-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
National Security and Defence
Institution:
Razumkov Centre
Abstract:
On 27 January 2015 the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine adopted the Resolution “On the Appeal of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine to the United Nations, European Parliament, Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe, NATO Parliamentary Assembly, OSCE Parliamentary Assembly, GUAM Parliamentary Assembly and national parliaments of the countries of the world on the recognition of the Russian Federation as an aggressor state”. It is stated in the document that “Ukraine remains the target of military aggression by the Russian Federation, which the latter carries out, among other things, by supporting, and providing supplies for large-scale terrorist attacks. … taking into account the provisions of the UN Charter and UN General Assembly Resolution 3314 ‘Definition of Aggression’ dated 14 December 1974, the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine recognises the Russian Federation as an Aggressor State…”.1 This Appeal defines the current situation and character of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, the reason and source for which is Russia’s expansionist policy in the post-Soviet area, which the Russian Federation, represented by its current leadership, considers its “zone of privileged interests”. This forms the basis for Russia’s hard pressure on Ukraine to integrate into Eurasian alliances under the auspices of the Russian Federation (RF), and blocking Kyiv’s course towards European and Euro-Atlantic integration. Such policy, as implemented by Russia since the beginning of 2000, did not involve establishing real partner relations between Moscow and Kyiv on the basis of parity and equality, – its goal was to turn Ukraine into a controlled state, which would operate in the framework of Russia’s policy. Russia’s geopolitical plans regarding Ukraine were ruined in February 2014. In return, Putin’s regime resorted to outright aggression against Ukraine – in March 2014 Crimea was annexed, later began the military expansion in Eastern Ukraine. This “undeclared” or “hybrid” war of Russia against Ukraine has now lasted for almost a year; during this war Ukraine has suffered large-scale human, territorial and economic losses. A critical outcome of this war is mutual estrangement of both countries’ societies. The Russia-Ukraine conflict is not a “local”, “peripheral” event, – it has regional and global dimension, and contains challenges and threats to the global security system. Annexation of Crimea, the situation in Eastern Ukraine are turning into a large-scale “frozen conflict”, which is a threat to security and stability not only on the European continent, but in the world at large. Leading Western countries and international organisations have not recognised the annexation of Crimea, thus, demonstrating political and diplomatic solidarity with Ukraine; have supported Ukraine in its battle against Russian aggression in Donbas. Ukraine has received considerable external financial and material-technical support. “Restraining” sanctions against Russia have been implemented. Currently, Ukraine is in the epicentre of critical West-Russia confrontation, which is characterised by an unprecedented loss of mutual trust. Ukraine-Russia relations are in a critical and unpredictable state. The political and diplomatic confrontation is ongoing; fundamental agreements and arrangements have been violated; the system of institutional interstate relations has been practically shattered; confrontation in the sphere of economy and energy sector is exacerbating, informational aggression of the Russian Federation against Ukraine continues. In general, current events give no reason to expect changes for the better in Russia’s policy towards Ukraine in the foreseeable future. Thus, the current state of Kyiv-Moscow relations demands creating fundamentally different conceptual and strategic approaches to co-existence with Putin’s Russia, a review of international contacts system, introduction of specific measures towards Russia.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Geopolitics, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Crimea

263. Global Leadership: Testing Leadership Practices Inventory in Ukraine (Quantitative Case Study)

Author:
R. Boyd Johnson
Publication Date:
03-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Studies of Changing Societies Journal (SCS)
Institution:
Studies of Changing Societies Journal (SCS)
Abstract:
Article examines perceptions of leadership of two different generations of Ukraine using Leadership Practice Inventory (LPI). Leadership practices accepted in certain societies correlate with the dominant culture and reflect its norms and expectations. This quantitative research project focused on adaptation of LPI and testing leadership concepts in Ukraine, a country with an interesting history and unique geopolitical location. The survey results showed peculiarities and differences of Ukrainian leadership perceptions of two different generations.
Topic:
Geopolitics, Leadership, Values, and Case Study
Political Geography:
Europe, Ukraine, and Global Focus

264. Bridging a (Mis)perceptional Gap: The EU's Eastern Partnership and Russian Policies in the Trans-Caucasus

Author:
Alexander Sergunin
Publication Date:
03-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
BILGESAM (Wise Men Center for Strategic Studies)
Abstract:
The launch of the EU’s Eastern Partnership in 2009 has puzzled both Russian decision-makers and experts. To the date they cannot arrive to any specific conclusion: whether this project is another geopolitical challenge to Russia’s domination in the post-Soviet space or a potential platform for cooperation both with the EU and countries of the region? The author believes that regardless numerous misunderstandings and misperceptions there is a ‘window of opportunity’ for the EU, Russia and Trans-Caucasian countries to develop a joint cooperative strategy.
Topic:
European Union, Partnerships, Geopolitics, and Soft Power
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Caucasus

265. Euromed+15. New paths of cooperation across the Mediterranean

Publication Date:
06-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
On the occasion of the 15th Anniversary of the Barcelona Declaration, the EuroMeSCo Network and the IEMed jointly organized the 2010 Annual EuroMeSCo Conference, in which distinguished experts and practitioners were convened to debate the future of Euro-Mediterranean politics in the light of the on-going institutional changes within the European Union and the new geopolitical context.
Topic:
Security, Politics, European Union, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:
Europe and Mediterranean

266. Rethinking the Top of the World: The Arctic Council

Author:
Munk School of Global Affairs
Publication Date:
01-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Munk School of Global Affairs at the University of Toronto
Abstract:
Increasingly, issues of Arctic security are the focus of public attention and debate. Whether it is media attention to Russian bombers, the recent announcement of moving forward on the Mackenzie Pipeline, or the increasing body of scholarly work suggesting that we are in the midst of a new cold war, the Arctic is receiving unprecedented attention from political leaders, policy makers, media and academics. Amidst this new prominence, there is a growing need to understand the preferences and priorities of the citizens whose countries include Arctic regions and from Arctic inhabitants themselves.
Topic:
Cold War, Oil, Military Strategy, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Europe, Canada, and North America

267. Who Leads Russia?

Author:
Elizabeth A. Wood
Publication Date:
06-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
MIT Center for International Studies
Abstract:
Ever since Dmitri Medvedev’s nomination to succeed Vladimir Putin as president of Russia, followed by his election and now his inauguration, Kremlin watchers, both Russian and Western, have been discussing the so-called “Putin-Medvedev tandem” and asking who will really lead Russia. Is the duumvirate stable? Will it degen- erate into squabbling among the Kremlin clans behind the scenes? The pundits have identified four plausible scenarios. One is that President Medvedev will indeed have the principal power, including the possibility of ousting Mr. Putin as prime minister, or marginalizing him, since the Russian political system has been “super- presidential,” i.e., strongly centered in the presidency, since the adoption of the new Constitution by Boris Yeltsin in 1993. The second is that the system will remain cen- tered around Prime Minister Putin through informal power mechanisms that have much more weight in this system than do the formal powers granted by the Constitution; this is the scenario I consider most likely. A third is that the United Russia Party will emerge as dominant in this situation, able to make or break presidents through the electoral process. A fourth is that the whole country, or at least the government, will fall apart because of feuding among the followers of the president and the prime minister who will be unable to decide on the fair division of spoils that come with holding power in this country that covers one-sixth of the earth’s land mass. Because the corridors of power are so completely impenetrable to outsiders, no one knows what will happen. Still, Putin and his advisers’ actions in the months leading up to the election and then inauguration of Dmitri Medvedev as president of the Russian Federation show some answers.
Topic:
Governance, Geopolitics, Leadership, and Political stability
Political Geography:
Russia and Europe

268. Security Threats and Risks in South Caucasus: Perceptions From the Western Black Sea

Author:
Plamen Pantev
Publication Date:
06-2005
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for Security and International Studies (ISIS)
Abstract:
Perception1 of security threats is a dynamic process determined by the outside world and the perceiver’s culture, attitudes, expectations, needs, experience and other attributes. Each interpreter, depending on her or his respective analytic point of view, subjectively defines the facts in the security realm. Values, beliefs and cognitions constitute the bulk of any perception, including about security issues. A value is a preference for one state of reality over another. A belief is a conviction that a description of reality is true, proven or known. And cognition is information derived from the environment that can be substantiated through physical evidence or perceptual observation. Cognitions are key elements in establishing perceptual systems and in changing those systems. The threat perceptual systems of the Western Black Sea countries – Bulgaria and Romania, are strongly influenced by their values, beliefs and cognitions as sovereign nations with specific geopolitical positions and interests. They are also shaped in the context of their membership in NATO, as future EU members and as US allies on whose territories would be stationed American military bases.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Geopolitics, and Risk
Political Geography:
Europe, Eurasia, South Caucasus, and Black Sea

269. Euro-Atlantic and Euro-Asiatic Concerns of an Enlarged Europe: a Bulgarian View

Author:
Plamen Pantev
Publication Date:
08-2004
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for Security and International Studies (ISIS)
Abstract:
For historical, geopolitical, domestic and other reasons the enlarged Europe of 25 ‘+2’;’+3’, or ‘+4’ does not have a homogenized vision of the extent to which EU should differentiate itself in the realm of security from the United States of America. This causes fundamental concerns to the new members of the Union and to the other two, three or four that would join in the next few years. The Bulgarian perceptions of this issue cause concerns as to the most appropriate roles and functions of the country in the EuroAtlantic area as well as relative to the Euro-Asiatic neighborhood when the country joins the Union.
Topic:
Security, NATO, International Affairs, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Asia, Bulgaria, and Atlantic Ocean

270. Bulgaria’s Role and Prospects In The Black Sea Region: Implications Of Nato and Eu Enlargement

Author:
Plamen Plantev
Publication Date:
12-2003
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for Security and International Studies (ISIS)
Abstract:
In the evolving situation of EU and NATO eastward enlargement within a dramatically changed global security environment Bulgaria’s role and prospects are shaped by powerful yet hard to organise and realise in practice interests: First, the interest of serving as a reliable boundary state of both EU and NATO while projecting the image and influence of a trustworthy bridge, linking a stable and well established region of EU and NATO states with countries of a still shaky though bearing positive economic opportunities area. With the support of EU and NATO Bulgaria is in a position to mobilise its potential to serve these uneasy jobs. Second, the interest not to be pushed or even just to be left in the position to choose between the EU and NATO as well as between the EU and the leading NATO country – the United States. Bulgaria’s perceptions of the world – from the point of view of EU and US interaction, is a place, calling for cooperation in approaching and solving the hard issues of the globe and not for trying to counter-balance the Americans. Any other reading of the EU/US relationship by Bulgaria would practically dilute and even dissolve the country’s chances to play an effective and forward targeted boundary and bridge roles. Third, the interest to project to the contending for EU and NATO membership countries in the Balkans and in the Black Sea area the lesson Bulgaria has learnt in the accession years, that joining the two institutions is not an issue of geopolitical bargaining, but one of mostly meeting standard conditions that would lead to social and economic progress of the aspirants themselves and make them compatible with the other members of the Union and the Alliance.
Topic:
NATO, European Union, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:
Europe, Eastern Europe, Bulgaria, and Black Sea