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1. The G7 and Sustainable Agri-Food Systems’ Transformation: Lessons Learned from the Italian Presidency

Author:
Daniele Fattibene
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Italy put a strong emphasis on food and nutrition security during its 2024 G7 Presidency, designing or scaling up plans to transform global food systems. Although the Italian presidency was able to gather consensus on key dimensions such as the food and climate nexus or development finance, structural weaknesses remain. Among them, the limited representation of Global South interests, the lack of space for civil society and farmers’ organisations in the decision-making process and the institutional rivalry between the Finance and the Development Tracks. While the G7 can more easily mobilise consensus and financial solutions to tackle global hunger, it has gradually lost ground to settings such as the G20 or the UN climate conference generally known as COP. The G7 must align its food-security solutions with those designed by other global partners (the G20 Global Alliance Against Hunger and Poverty, or the EU’s Global Gateway) that can more effectively address food insecurity, while tackling all the barriers that make it too risky for local actors and the private sector to invest in sustainable agri-food systems transformation.
Topic:
Agriculture, Climate Change, Food Security, and G7
Political Geography:
Europe and Italy

2. The CAP between a rock and a hard place: its new challenges and uncertain prospects

Author:
Tassos Haniotis
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
The Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) is currently at a crossroads of a changing world environment which impacts demand (food inflation), supply (energy and input costs) and agri-food trade (geostrategic tensions). EU policies have to address the conundrum of having to simultaneously contribute to mitigating climate change and contributing to food security by accepting that both are global problems and require global solutions. CAP ongoing policy orientation aims at increasing its environmental performance while retaining its economic and social achievements, but excessive targets set by the Farm to Fork Strategy and the impact of changing market conditions brought tensions in the debate between on food security and climate action with respect to priorities on primary agriculture. Higher food costs increasing income inequalities put households in the developed world at a risk of changes in consumer behaviour that are driven by forces exogenous to their tastes and preferences. Addressing misperceptions about the role of productivity, science and trade will impact on how the EU assesses, in a more balanced way and addresses its strengths and weaknesses in the field of agriculture. Despite clear progress of Greek agriculture in recent years three persistent weaknesses of Greek agriculture relate to an uneven and untargeted distribution of direct payments the underestimation of the role of extensive livestock or the absence of a functioning Farm Advisory System.
Topic:
Agriculture, European Union, Food Security, Economy, and Trade
Political Geography:
Europe and Greece

3. The ‘Grain from Ukraine’ Initiative – A crucial contribution to African food security

Author:
Pavlo Martyshev, Mariia Bogonos, Valentyn Litvinov, and Roksolana Nazarkina
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:
This discussion paper estimates the effect of Ukraine’s ‘Grain from Ukraine’ humanitarian initiative on food security in African and MENA countries targeted by the programme. Ukraine is one of the largest exporters of agricultural produce, accounting for almost half of the world’s sunflower oil exports, 13% of corn exports, and 8% of wheat exports in the 2020/21 marketing year. While Russia’s war against Ukraine negatively affected global food security, it especially impacted African countries, since Ukraine is an essential contributor to local food security there. Of the total number of wheat and sunflower oil imports to Africa in 2021, those from Ukraine accounted for 16% and 23% respectively. Moreover, the growth of undernourishment on the continent is explained by a number of local factors: climate extremes, military conflicts, economic shocks, and disruption of food supply chains. The tight food supply in the region underscores the importance of Ukraine’s presence on the local markets. Our estimates, based on the World Food Programme methodology for calculating the number of people supported by the initiative, show that it has already supported around 16.2 million people in Africa and the Middle East over periods from 1 to 8 months. This is equivalent to feeding around 2 million people for one year. Using the acute food insecurity data from the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) for 2023, we calculate that the programme reduced the number of people facing moderate to strong food insecurity (IPC 3-5) by 1.4% in the African and Middle Eastern countries supported in the period from November 2022 to August 2024. Meanwhile, the number of people facing intense food insecurity (IPC 4-5) decreased by about 8% during this period. Overall, the programme has huge potential for development, which should be based on the humanitarian-development nexus that aims for a long-term reduction in hunger. Four main policy options could be considered in this respect: 1. Integrating the development programmes into agricultural production in Africa 2. Pursuing facilitation of agri-food trade with African countries 3. Increasing the supply of processed food products to low-income countries 4. Informing donors of the urgent priorities in maintaining African food security
Topic:
Agriculture, Food Security, Exports, Trade, Russia-Ukraine War, and Wheat
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, and Ukraine

4. Concerns for Food Security in the Mediterranean and Turkiye

Author:
Gun Unal
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:
Transatlantic Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:
When Russia’s invasion of Ukraine resumed after a hiatus of many months, it prompted the European Union and 17 other countries to cut off relations with Russia and Belarus. Most of the goods and food that people in the West use now come from foreign plantations and factories. The length of the war will significantly affect the extent to which it disrupts global food supplies and the intensity of the resulting food crisis. A symptom of this movement, and a warning against overreliance on Russian energy supplies, is the European Political Community. While the article’s focus is on the potential impact of the war between Russia and Ukraine on food supplies throughout the world, it also serves to remind readers that there is more to a crisis than a shortage of Russian oil and gas.
Topic:
Security, Natural Resources, Food, and Food Security
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, and Mediterranean

5. Kazakhstan could lead Central Asia in mitigating the world’s energy and food shortages

Author:
Margarita Assenova, Ariel Cohen, and Wesley Hill
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Russia’s war against Ukraine has had significant economic and political repercussions across the globe, including energy shortages and growing food insecurity. The war has forced Central Asian states to emphasize their independence from Moscow and accelerate their economic diversification. Central Asia—comprising Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan—has the potential to mitigate global shortages of energy, food, and fertilizers, caused by Russia’s war of aggression. The primary challenges for Central Asia and its Western partners remain diversifying export routes and expanding the capacity of alternative transportation corridors, especially the Trans-Caspian International Transportation Corridor, or the “Middle Corridor.” Kazakhstan is the leading producer of uranium ore in the world, grows 2 percent of the world’s wheat, and has major hydrocarbon reserves. Kazakhstan has the opportunity to lead Central Asia forward on the path to becoming an important supplier of energy, grain, fertilizers, and nuclear fuel to world markets. The energy crisis in Europe spurred renewed interest in the long-planned Trans-Caspian natural gas pipeline. A potential United States and European Union ban on uranium civilian-reactor fuel exports from Russia could ensure Kazakhstan’s importance as a nuclear fuel exporter to Europe. To do this, Kazakhstan first needs to build its own conversion and enrichment facilities. This would allow it to double its share in the European market while utilizing the Middle Corridor. By encouraging Western investment, the states of Central Asia can become an important force in global commodity markets. To this end, they should implement the recently signed far-reaching regional agreements on cooperation and integration, so that they are less susceptible to “divide and conquer” strategies from predatory foreign powers and can exercise greater leverage when negotiating as a bloc. The US and the EU should also recognize that Central Asia’s energy and agricultural potential and resources make the region an area of strategic interest with promising business opportunities. The Central Asian states need to intensify their Western-oriented diplomatic outreach to attract support from state and private actors for investment and technological partnerships. Geographic proximity to Russia and China means Central Asian countries will always have economic relationships with Moscow and Beijing. But greater Western engagement in the region can diminish the chances for Russo-Sino cooperation in Central Asia. Russia’s war against Ukraine has weakened its geopolitical position and the Western sanctions on its economy have opened up new opportunities for Central Asia to supply critical energy and food commodities to world markets. Kazakhstan, as the region’s largest economy and its largest producer of oil, uranium, and grain, is well-positioned to lead this transition.
Topic:
Security, Environment, Food Security, Geopolitics, and Energy
Political Geography:
Europe, Central Asia, Eurasia, and Kazakhstan

6. The geopolitics of European wheat

Author:
Sébastien Abis
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
With its twenty-seven Member States, the European Union is a major agricultural and cereal-producing power. And with 450 million inhabitants, it is the world's second largest consumer of wheat after China[1]. More than just a single market, the EU has also become the world's largest wheat producer, although the Middle Kingdom regularly challenges this position[2] , especially when the harvests on the Old Continent are not as good. The European Union is also now the world's second largest wheat exporter, behind Russia but ahead of the United States[3] . These geo-economic advantages are based on a political project: union. The figures on European wheat, disaggregated and observed by member state, would not be so comforting. But is the European Union aware of its agricultural strengths and does it want to maintain them in the 21st century? Why does wheat embody both power as well as a dose of experimentation?[4]
Topic:
Agriculture, Markets, European Union, Food Security, Geopolitics, Economic Competition, and Wheat
Political Geography:
Europe

7. New biotechnologies, allies for food safety in the face of climate change. Where does Europe stand?

Author:
Agnès Ricroch
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
The food market is currently marked by soaring prices and shortages due to supply shocks in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic, but also to repeated extreme weather events linked to climate change; and finally, to geopolitical conflicts, in particular Russia's invasion of Ukraine. All innovations must be used to ensure food security, particularly for the European Union.
Topic:
Climate Change, Markets, European Union, Food Security, Innovation, and Biotechnology
Political Geography:
Europe

8. Employment effects of foreign agricultural investments – expectations unfulfilled?

Author:
Helle Munk Ravnborg, Bernard Bashaasha, Rikke Broegaard, Michael Byaruhanga, Evelyne Lazaro, Festo Maro, Khamaldin Mutabazi, and David Tumusiime
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
Since the hike in food prices in 2007-2008, national as well as international policy attention has been strongly focused on promoting foreign agricultural investments, e.g. in sub-Saharan Africa. While in some cases such a focus may be justified, policies which favour foreign investments may work to the detriment of locally-owned family farms which represent a strong – and in many cases stronger – source of rural employment generation than foreign agricultural investments.
Topic:
Agriculture, Development, Employment, Food Security, and Investment
Political Geography:
Europe and Denmark

9. Towards a Renewed Euro-Mediterranean Cooperation on Sustainable Agri-Food Systems for Food Security in the Region

Author:
Marko Lovec, Desirée A.L Quagliarotti, Tommaso Emiliani, and Ines Gasmi
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
IEMed/EuroMeSCo
Abstract:
This joint Policy Study discusses the vulnerabilities of the Mediterranean agri-food system exposed by the food and energy price spikes caused by the war in Ukraine and the implications for human security in the region. The Middle East and North African (MENA) region, as the world’s largest food importer, faces challenges on both the demand and supply sides, including population growth, urbanisation, dietary changes, macroeconomic constraints, scarcity of natural resources, and climate change impacts. Rural populations and farmers often experience food insecurity, while European countries are not immune to high food prices and their socioeconomic consequences. Existing policies focused on international trade and production have failed to address the complex interplay between food, environment, and society. The concept of food sovereignty provides valuable insights for developing context-specific strategies to foster resilient agricultural and food systems. The proposed ‘Euro-Mediterranean blueprint for sustainable agricultural and food systems‘ outlines six pillars, including agroecological transition, support for traditional agricultural systems, initiatives targeting the agri-food chain, promotion of blue foods strategy, participatory policy-making, and macroregional cooperation. The authors emphasise the need for enhanced regional cooperation in agriculture, particularly in the context of changing geopolitics and the disruptive impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. They suggest various avenues for collaboration, such as involving Southern Mediterranean countries in European Union initiatives, increasing climate funding for agriculture and food, reengaging in regional trade negotiations, fostering partnerships in research and innovation, and promoting unifying narratives. The limitations of the EU’s Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) in driving transformative strategies in the Euro-Mediterranean region are discussed in the study, along with recommendations for targeted CAP payments aligned with climate and biodiversity objectives, conditionalities on trade, and support for sustainable practices. The role of climate and digital agendas in agriculture is highlighted, particularly the challenges and compromises associated with implementing Climate Smart Agriculture (CSA) in the region. The authors emphasise the need for context-driven, climate-smart ideas and solutions, improved water management, policy coordination, strengthened institutions, enhanced access to funding, and increased national investments in climate-friendly agriculture.
Topic:
Agriculture, Food Security, Sustainability, and Energy
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, North Africa, and Mediterranean

10. Crisis alimentarias en el norte de África

Author:
Laurence Thieux
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Fundación Alternativas
Abstract:
La guerra en Ucrania, sumándose a las crisis anteriores, ha tenido un fuerte impacto sobre los países de Norte de África dependientes de los mercados mundiales para alimentar a su población. La inflación y la perturbación de las cadenas de suministro han agudizado las crisis económicas y sociales y los riesgos de inseguridad alimentaria de las franjas más vulnerables de la población de esta región incrementando las fracturas territoriales y las desigualdades. Este documento, a cargo de Laurence Thieux, profesora ayudante doctor del Departamento de Relaciones Internacionales e Historia Global de la Universidad Complutense de Madrid, trata de arrojar luz sobre las causas estructurales de las crisis de los sistemas alimentarios y agrícolas de algunos países del norte de África (Marruecos, Argelia, Túnez, Libia y Egipto). Se analiza también sus consecuencias y la contestación de unos modelos de desarrollo agrícola cuya sostenibilidad es cada vez más cuestionada por las injusticias sociales que conllevan y el uso desmedido de recursos naturales cada vez más exiguos por el cambio climático.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Food Security, Inequality, and Crisis Management
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, Spain, North Africa, and Sub-Saharan Africa