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611. A Comparative Analysis of the Social Situation Between Carbon-intensive and Noncarbon-intensive Regions

Author:
Roman Römisch
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:
This study focuses on the social situation in carbon-intensive regions and the role of migration in defining its quality. The analysis examines whether carbon-intensive areas, especially those with large outward migration, are more vulnerable to adverse social trends than other regions. Our findings reveal a robust association between the processes of decarbonisation and migration, which collectively exert a significant impact on the social conditions within EU regions. This influence is assessed using various indicators, such as the Social Progress Index, employment rates, availability of hospital beds, access to preschool education, and the prevalence of severe material deprivation. We demonstrate that compared to noncarbon-intensive regions, carbon-intensive regions, compelled as they are to undergo structural changes to meet environmental requirements, have a diminished capacity to offer their residents satisfactory employment opportunities and a high quality of social life. Moreover, if carbon-intensive regions experience the challenge of negative net migration, their social development is highly likely to face a notable deterioration. On the other hand, in cases where inward migration predominates, regions at risk of decarbonisation tend to exhibit minor deterioration – and even outperform the noncarbon-intensive group experiencing outward migration.
Topic:
Migration, European Union, Decarbonization, and Regional Development
Political Geography:
Europe

612. Migration Drivers in Carbon-intensive Regions in the EU

Author:
Stefan Jestl and Roman Römisch
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:
The paper analyses drivers of migration in carbon-intensive and non-carbon-intensive regions in the EU. Using a mix of econometric methods, such as spatial panel and spatial cross-sectional methods, as well as geographically weighted regressions on data for EU NUTS-2 and NUTS-3 regions, the results indicate that particularly carbon-intensive regions in Central and Eastern Europe are not only challenged by a potential decline in carbon-intensive employment but also by outward migration flows that could diminish their prospects for longer-term economic prosperity. From a policy point of view, the results indicate that policies focusing on the replacement of the lost jobs in carbon-intensive industries might not be enough for the carbon-intensive regions in Central and Eastern Europe. Instead, these regions need a simultaneous package of additional policies to improve their attractiveness.
Topic:
Migration, European Union, Carbon Emissions, Green Transition, Regional Development, and Regional Migration
Political Geography:
Europe

613. State Aid, R&D, and the Digital Content of Trade

Author:
Chiara Castelli, Dario Guarascio, Stefan Jestl, and Robert Stehrer
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:
We test for the role of state aid as a driver of digital competitiveness at the industry level, focusing on the digital factor content of trade. Results show that state aid may increase digital competitiveness, particularly in R&D-intensive industries and in relation to the export of (digital) capital-intensive goods and services. Interestingly, aggregate state aid appears to be more effective than specific R&D funds in explaining the performance of country-industries in foreign markets.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, European Union, Trade, Industry, Capital, and Research and Development
Political Geography:
Europe

614. The Cyclical Behaviour of Government Spending for Social Protection: Is the OECD Methodology Robust?

Author:
Aleksandr Arsenev, Philipp Heimberger, and Torben Schütz
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:
Spending elasticities measure the reaction of different government spending components to the business cycle. They are important inputs for fiscal forecasts, and they are particularly relevant in the context of European Union (EU) fiscal rules, as elasticity estimates enter the estimation of fiscal space. This paper analyses the sensitivity of the estimation method used by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the European Commission to obtain government spending elasticities by focusing on 11 EU countries in the 1995-2020 period. Our results suggest that spending elasticities are sensitive to small variations in data and model specification. For most EU countries, we reject the assumption that only unemployment spending responds to cyclical variations. While unemployment spending is indeed a major driver of counter-cyclical social spending, other categories of social spending also show signs of responding to the business cycle.
Topic:
Budget, European Union, Finance, Macroeconomics, Public Debt, Social Spending, Public Spending, and Fiscal Deficit
Political Geography:
Europe, Greece, France, Poland, Germany, Denmark, Romania, Spain, Italy, Sweden, Austria, and Czechia

615. A Decade of Greek Immigration and Asylum Policy (2015-2024): A Balancing Act of EU Participation, Humanitarian Obligations, and Security Concerns

Author:
Angelo Tramountanis
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:
Greece was at the forefront of the European Union’s (EU) immigration and asylum policy implementation during the migration crisis of 2015–2016. Throughout this period, it is estimated that more than one million migrants and refugees traveled through Greece, moving toward other Western European countries.1 The sheer size of this transient population—and its multifaceted political and social implications for European countries—prompted the EU to attempt to curb the influx of immigrants to Greece and, by extension, to its member states. In 2023, almost a decade later, a tragic shipwreck near Pylos claiming over 600 lives, as well as ongoing discussions by several actors and organizations regarding Greece’s migrant pushbacks, has brought the country under the European spotlight once again.
Topic:
European Union, Refugees, Borders, Asylum, Humanitarian Response, and Migration Policy
Political Geography:
Europe and Greece

616. An Evidence-Based Analysis of the Eu’s Hampered Transformative Power in the Western Balkans

Author:
Doris Malaj and Elena Polo
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:
Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:
The objectives of this paper were to assess the role of the EU in the countries willing to join and committed to the negotiation processes (with a particular focus on the WB region) and to explore further and explain the dynamics of the EU’s crucial role onto the political performance, summarizing internal and external country and region-based developments. For this purpose, the deployed methodology consists of conducting a comparative quantitative analysis, comparing evidence from selected countries and from selected enlargement waves. The main results of the analysis confirmed that the EU’s role in ensuring democratic performances at the country/region level is seriously weakened over time and that it is therefore essential that the EU, especially in uncertain times, rethink and revitalize its democracy-promoting mechanisms to rebuild and re-test itself as a transformative power.
Topic:
European Union, Regional Integration, Democratic Performance, and Enlargement
Political Geography:
Europe and Balkans

617. Trade Beyond Neoliberalism: Concluding a Global Arrangement on Sustainable Steel and Aluminum

Author:
Trevor Sutton and Mike Williams
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:
A proposed trade deal with the European Union offers a historic opportunity to align the global economy with climate action and the interests of workers—but only if Washington and Brussels can put aside their differences.
Topic:
Climate Change, Treaties and Agreements, European Union, Neoliberalism, Trade, Sustainability, and Metals
Political Geography:
Europe and United States of America

618. EU enlargement in wartime Europe: Three dimensions and scenarios

Author:
Tyyne Karjalainen
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:
The enlargement policy of the European Union from 2013 to 2022 was not only ineffective, but also lacked an active enlargement drive. Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine changed the equation of costs and benefits in favour of new members and gave the EU a geopolitical incentive to restart enlargement. Enlargement is not only a geopolitical strategy, however: it also requires successful state-building efforts in the neighbourhood. Moreover, it is closely interlinked with the EU’s internal development. This Working Paper analyzes the current evolution of the EU enlargement policy as it emerges from the interplay of geopolitics, state-building challenges, and the EU’s internal dynamics. Drawing on original interviews with state officials, the paper also presents three scenarios for the coming decade. The paper concludes that to achieve its foreign policy objectives in the neighbourhood, the EU cannot continue “business as usual” with enlargement. On the contrary, the policy of 2013–2022 needs to be replaced by a more effective model that encourages candidate countries to undertake genuine efforts towards democratic development. At the same time, reforms and compromises are required at the EU’s end, including a solution to the dilemma between deepening and widening. Finally, the EU also needs to better address the security needs of the applicant countries already during the accession process.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, European Union, Regional Integration, Russia-Ukraine War, and Enlargement
Political Geography:
Europe

619. EU-China relations in an uncertain world: Walking a geopolitical tightrope

Author:
Sinikukka Saari, Niklas Helwig, Juha Jokela, and Mikael Mattlin
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:
After the 2008 financial crisis, the EU’s approach towards China shifted from overconfidence in European normative power to an embrace of unconditional economic engagement with China. The EU policy of de-risking is critically important, but it needs to be carefully considered, managed, and communicated to China. US-China tensions and American debates on China impact the EU’s approach. Nevertheless, there are significant differences between European and US positions on China irrespective of which party holds power in the US. China’s position on Russia’s war of aggression is a make-or-break issue for the EU. By actively enabling Russia’s invasion, China is harming its own long-term interests in Europe and globally. It is in Europe’s interests to avoid framing current international dynamics in terms of “the West and the rest”. Although this discourse may be popular domestically, there is a danger of it becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Topic:
International Relations, European Union, Geopolitics, and Economic Policy
Political Geography:
China, Europe, Asia, and United States of America

620. The 2024 elections in Russia, the EU, and the US: International implications and impacts on the war in Ukraine

Author:
Jussi Lassila, Maria Lindén, and Henrik Müller
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:
In 2024, elections will be held in Russia, the European Union, and the United States. The elections will carry implications not only for the domestic politics of these three polities but also for the international arena, including the war in Ukraine. While the Russian presidential election lacks any democratic credibility, Vladimir Putin’s confirmation may encourage him to pursue an even more aggressive military policy. However, this would still be a domestic political risk, and Putin’s primary expectation is that Western aid to Ukraine will wane. The European Parliament elections are expected to result in a surge of far-right parties, but the EU’s decentralized power structures and consensus-based procedures make sudden political changes unlikely. Enlargement policy will be high on the EU’s agenda in the next legislative period. In the US, the presidential and congressional elections will see a clash between two very different visions for both domestic and foreign policy. The consequences will be drastically different depending on the outcome of the elections.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Elections, European Union, Domestic Politics, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and United States of America