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601. The future of the transatlantic partnership: US perceptions and debates

Author:
Sophia Winograd, Valentina Gruarin, Cengiz Günay, and Vedran Dzihic
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:
Russia’s attack on Ukraine on February 24, 2022, altered Europe’s security architecture and long-term strategic planning. Many in Europe have shared with the Biden administration that the aggression is not only an existential threat to Ukraine but also to the liberal world order and its values. The war has revived transatlantic coordination and increased the popularity of NATO on both sides of the Atlantic. However, there are critical voices which have questioned the transatlantic commitment and its longevity. This paper examines whether and how the transatlantic partnership has been revitalized and whether it is long lasting. It does so by focusing on U.S. debates, differing opinions, and varying positions on the war and cooperation with NATO and the EU.
Topic:
NATO, European Union, Partnerships, Transatlantic Relations, Debates, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and United States of America

602. New technologies are challenging EU in outer space

Author:
Trine Rosengren Pejstrup
Publication Date:
08-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
The increasing commercialisation and militarisation of outer space has intensified geopolitical competition and is re-shaping international relations. Public and private actors are increasingly looking to emerging technologies to gain a technological edge. This brief explores the topic of experimentation with emerging technologies in outer space and why EU decision-makers should address the main risks and implications of this development.
Topic:
Security, Science and Technology, European Union, Space, Emerging Technology, Militarization, and Competition
Political Geography:
Europe

603. EU’s Democractic Conditionality: Democratic Principles and Procedures?

Author:
Déborah Silva do Monte
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Contexto Internacional
Institution:
Institute of International Relations, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
Abstract:
This article aims at explaining the changes in the democratic conditionality of the European Union over time from the institutional contexts of the domestic and regional levels. The comparison milestones regard enlargements that happened between 1993 and 2014. Variations on the dependent variable are analysed in light of the principles and procedures of the concept of polyarchy (Dahl 1989). This analysis demonstrates and explains that the democratic conditionality of the EU has changed over time, becoming more complete and with more pluralist principles when applied to the enlargements. It also highlights the relation between the democratic conditionality and the democratic deficit of the EU by the incorporation of democratic principles and procedures in EU institutions.
Topic:
European Union, Regional Integration, Decision-Making, Democratic Conditionality, and Polyarchy
Political Geography:
Europe

604. Georgia-EU Economic Relations Dynamics and Cooperation Opportunities

Author:
Davit Shatakishvili
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
Abstract:
Rapprochement with the European Union in terms of legislation, trade, logistics, finance and economy, which should result in full-fledged integration, is a task of state importance for Georgia. Since Georgia gained independence, the European Union has been actively supporting the territorial integrity and sovereignty of the country, helping to improve the infrastructure, digital and investment environment, and has played a major role in strengthening state institutions and the civil sector. In June 2014, an Association Agreement was signed between Georgia and the European Union, including the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area, which entered into force in July 2016. In March 2017, the visa-free travel regime for Georgian citizens in the Schengen area was launched. In the same year, the Constitution of Georgia was changed to reflect the unwavering will of the Georgian people to integrate into the European and Euro-Atlantic space. Over the decades, the economic relations between Georgia and the European Union have made significant progress. The trade turnover between the parties, investment volume, the export and import goods nomenclature, the number of incoming and outgoing tourists, the volume of remittances, the degree of integration into the common regional transport networks and others are dynamically increasing. For Georgia, a small and developing economy, keeping the European Union as a reliable and stable partner is a critically important task. In this article, we will analyze the existing trade-economic relations between the parties, and review such important sectors as: foreign trade, foreign direct investments, remittances, tourism and the foreign exchange market, as well as outline the opportunities and future perspectives of bilateral regional economic cooperation.
Topic:
Economics, Regional Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, and European Union
Political Geography:
Europe and Georgia

605. Ukraine’s State-Civil Partnership to Reform the Security Sector

Author:
Julia Soldatiuk-Westerveld and Bob Deen
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
Reforming Ukraine’s large security sector and overcoming its Soviet-era legacies has been a major challenge since independence. Ukrainian civil society has been vociferously demanding a transition towards a transparent and well-governed security sector that upholds the interests of the population rather than keeping it under control. This is also a priority for the Ukrainian Government and its international partners, as a prerequisite for further integration with the European Union and NATO. This report therefore analyses the changing role of Ukrainian civil society by investigating seven examples of key reforms of the security sector and puts forward recommendations for Ukraine’s international partners regarding their cooperation with Ukrainian civil society organisations (CSOs).
Topic:
Security, Civil Society, Reform, European Union, Partnerships, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

606. Strengthening digital economic security in Europe

Author:
Maaike Okano-Heijmans and Alexandre Ferreira Gomes
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
Tweet this Post on Facebook Post on LinkedIn Technological leadership, digital autonomy and economic security are now political Chefsache in countries throughout the world, including in Europe, as new technologies are revolutionising industries and reshaping societies. Set against this context, the Dutch government is preparing implementable measures to act on open strategic autonomy (OSA) in the digital domain, to be presented in October 2023. This comes just months after the launch of the European Economic Security Strategy by the European Commission. The Dutch government must reckon with the move in this new direction – from DOSA to (digital) economic security – if it wishes to leverage its reputation as a European frontrunner in this field. This report offers a strategic international analysis to inform Dutch policies and action on digital economic security, in a European context. It reflects on the geopolitical context that shapes digital OSA (DOSA) concerns and showcases the key features of both the European and Dutch approaches to the digital component of strategic autonomy. Next, the authors present a concise overview of the state of play in a select group of key countries (in-depth case studies focus on Germany, France and Finland; as well as the United States, China and India) and offer suggestions for future action. A key point emerging from the report is that European governments need to ensure that the focus on Regulate and Protect of recent years must be complemented by greater investments in Promote and Shape policies – both within the European Union and in coordination with key partners. The networks of Innovation Attachés and Economic Security Attachés (image below) play an important role in the Netherlands’ enhanced approach to digital economic security. The longstanding network of Innovation Attachés is an asset on the Promote side of Dutch technology policy that needs to be geared towards more strategic objectives. The newly established Economic Security network focuses on the Protect line of action.
Topic:
Security, European Union, Economic Security, and Digital Autonomy
Political Geography:
Europe

607. The European Union in a crowded Horn of Africa

Author:
Guido Lanfranchi
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
This policy brief explores the engagement of the European Union (EU) in the Horn of Africa, in light of the growing regional presence of other foreign actors, namely the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey, China, and Russia. Although the EU has defined the Horn as a “geo-strategic priority”, the bloc’s approach to the region is not yet well defined. The EU’s engagement would benefit from a clearer definition of the EU’s interests and objectives in the region in a clear order of priority. This could then inform a reflection on which tools can be best mobilized to achieve such interests. In this regard, the EU’s development cooperation efforts are an important added value that the bloc brings to the region, which may be leveraged more strategically to achieve the EU’s objectives.The growing presence of other foreign actors in the Horn has important implications not only for the Horn itself, but also for the EU’s regional engagement. When the interests of some of these actors overlap with those of the EU, a degree of cooperation would be beneficial for all sides. The domains of infrastructure development and humanitarian aid offer a meaningful entry point to explore such cooperation. In other instances, on the other hand, the EU may need to push back on the activities of other foreign actors when they directly run against the bloc’s interests. Overall, however, the EU should be careful not to allow geopolitical considerations to guide its approach towards the region. Rather than being preoccupied with keeping the Horn’s stakeholders outside of the orbit of its geopolitical rivals, the EU should focus on deepening ties with (state or non-state) actors that share its own interests and values – an approach that can lead to more reliable partnerships that deliver on the EU’s interests in the longer term.
Topic:
Development, European Union, Geopolitics, and Strategic Engagement
Political Geography:
Europe and Horn of Africa

608. Europe’s Multiple Futures: Four Futurescapes for Europe’s Geopolitical Positioning in 2030

Author:
Tim Bosch, Paloma Muñoz Quick, Elisabeth Suh, Dominik Tolksdorf, and Georgios Kolliarakis
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
This report provides distinct storylines envisioning Europe's potential futures up to 2030. Contrary to traditional binary evaluations, these four scenarios avoid direct labeling as "good" or "bad." They delve into crucial drivers, from labor market integration to global affairs such as Russia-Ukraine conflict and Europe-China relations. Addressing the urgent need for "futures literacy" among policymakers and experts, this initiative by DGAP experts offers interpretative frameworks for upcoming challenges. Rather than predicting specifics, the scenarios prompt reconsideration of narratives and introduce counter-intuitive thinking modes for addressing global shifts and foreign policy challenges.
Topic:
Climate Change, Migration, Science and Technology, European Union, Geopolitics, Future, and Geoeconomics
Political Geography:
Europe

609. Security, Industry, and the Lost European Vision (#EDINA II): How Russia’s War in Ukraine Is Changing the European Defense Technological and Industrial Base

Author:
Christian Mölling and Sören Hellmonds
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
The DGAP, in collaboration with the Friedrich-Naumann-Foundation, initiated the EDINA project to examine the post-2022 European Defense Technological and Industrial Base (EDTIB) after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Drawing insights from defense experts across NATO members, the study highlights the evolving European defense landscape, emphasizing security of supply concerns and the balance between national and EU initiatives. The report underscores pivotal forthcoming decisions in Europe's defense amidst changing geopolitical dynamics.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, European Union, Geopolitics, Industry, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe

610. Do Interest-growth Differentials Affect Fiscal Policy? Evidence for Advanced Economies

Author:
Philipp Heimberger
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:
This paper analyses the link between discretionary fiscal policy and interest-growth differentials (r-g). Panel regressions based on a dataset for 20 advanced countries over the years 1990-2019 reveal no evidence of a systematic linear relationship between fiscal policy and r-g. However, more unfavourable r-g differentials are linked more strongly to a tighter fiscal stance when public-debt-to-GDP ratios are higher – but only in the euro area, not in advanced stand-alone countries issuing government debt in their own currency.
Topic:
European Union, Economies, Fiscal Policy, Public Debt, OECD, and Fiscal Deficit
Political Geography:
Europe