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551. The end of combustion engines: the cart before the horse!

Author:
Natalie Colin-Oesterlé
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
The European Union is often accused of being the great naïve of globalisation, imposing the highest standards on its companies but importing goods from third countries that do not meet them. In recent years, the paradigm has been changing: the introduction of a carbon tax on its borders, an energy roadmap to end our dependence on Russian fossil fuels (REPowerEU), and the beginnings of a European preference in the fields of defence and space for example. While this metamorphosis is real in some sectors, there are others where the European Union has chosen the opposite path. This is unfortunately the case for the automotive industry. After some last-minute changes, the Council formally adopted on 28 March, the new CO2 emissions standards for new cars and vans. From 2035 onwards, only new 100% electric and hydrogen fuel cell powered vehicles for private and commercial use will be allowed to be sold on the European market. Petrol, diesel, E85, LPG, CNG and hybrids, even rechargeable ones, will be banned from sale. This decision will have a major impact on an industry that generates 12.5 million jobs in Europe, including nearly 400,000 direct jobs in France.
Topic:
Budget, European Union, Carbon Tax, Imports, and Energy
Political Geography:
Europe

552. With war next door, Moldova is accelerating its rapprochement with the EU

Author:
Maia Sandu
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
Russia's ruthless invasion of Ukraine has upended the existing order in Europe and the world, and with it the security architecture, global energy, trade, and financial systems. Since the end of the Cold War, technological progress and economic growth had led to stronger cooperation and an unprecedented level of connectivity between countries. Growing interdependence of the world's economies, cultures, and populations, brought about by cross-border trade and flows of investment, people, and information have promoted reconciliation and prosperity. Dictatorships fell, one-party rule ended, democracy prevailed. The Republic of Moldova declared independence in 1991[1] . Like us, the newly independent states had great expectations. We embraced this new beginning as a chance for peace and democratic development. We committed to being part of the free world. A world where states are sovereign and equal; where borders are respected; where states cooperate, settle disputes peacefully and fulfil obligations under international law; where respect for human rights and fundamental freedoms is at the heart of governance. And like others, Moldova hoped that buffer zones, spheres of influence and land grabs were a matter of the past. Above all, we wanted to live freely and choose our own future. But our aspirations to make our own choices were met by Russia's imperialist response. Its encouragement and support for secessionist rebels on the left bank of the Nistru river gave birth to a frozen conflict. Frozen conflicts, like the one in Moldova's Transnistrian region, have become one of Russia's foreign policy tools to destabilise its neighbourhood, prevent democratic consolidation and to simply hold back our development. Fast-forward a quarter of a century and a similar toolbox is applied to keep the EU-hopeful Ukraine part of the Russian sphere of influence. First Crimea, then Donbas, and eight years later - on that grim morning of 24 February 2022 - a full scale invasion of Ukraine. This ruthless, unjust, illegal war has unleashed an unimaginable tragedy on the Ukrainian people, generating shock waves across Europe and beyond the continent. As the first bombs fell on Ukrainian soil, Moldova has vigorously condemned the war, opened its borders to hundreds of thousands of refugees and has firmly stood with Ukraine ever since. Watching the suffering from across the border with sorrow and horror, we have been wondering if Moldova will be next. I am grateful to Ukraine, its military and citizens, for their fierce resistance. As they are fighting for their land and freedom, they are fighting for ours, too. We are safe thanks to Ukraine.
Topic:
European Union, Regional Integration, Rapprochement, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe and Moldova

553. Georgia: terrible dilemma for Europe

Author:
Régis Genté
Publication Date:
06-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
2023 is a crucial year in Georgia. It could even be historic, in the hope that it does not turn dramatic. At the end of the year, the twenty-seven members of the European Union must decide whether or not to grant the former Soviet republic the status of candidate country[1]. This decision is anxiously awaited by the 3.7 million Georgians, more than three quarters of whom say they want to join the European family. A trend that has grown over the last three decades. However, Georgia was refused this status in June 2022 by the European Council, which thereby sanctioned the policy of breaking with the West that has been methodically implemented since 2021 by the party in power, the 'Georgian Dream' led by oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili. A year ago, the European Council confirmed Georgia's European "perspective" giving it a list of twelve "priorities" to be implemented by the end of 2023 if it wanted to achieve "candidate" status. Since then, the Georgian government has passed a few laws to meet these "priorities", so as not to arouse the ire of an overwhelmingly pro-Western opinion. Above all, however, it has continued to undermine relations with the West ... and to forge closer ties with Moscow, which waged war against it in 2008. This endeavour culminated in March with a draft law initiated by the Georgian Dream on "foreign agents", inspired by the law passed in Russia in 2012. The bill would have required organisations and media outlets to declare themselves as "foreign agents" if more than 20% of their budget came from another country. This text could not be more contrary to the letter and spirit of the "Twelve Priorities". But after two days of protest, the government withdrew its text. Europeans therefore face a delicate dilemma at the end of the year. Should Georgia be given "candidate" status for membership of the European Union or not? To grant it would signify rewarding and strengthening a government that has every reason to believe it will continue its policy of breaking with the West. To refuse it would be to risk arousing popular anger with serious consequences. It should not be forgotten that the question of a rapprochement with Europe, at the end of 2013, led the Kremlin to destabilise Ukraine and to wage war against it. Over and above political positions, it is the possible consequences for the country's security and stability that also need to be taken into account.
Topic:
European Union, Regional Politics, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe, Eurasia, and Georgia

554. Between inflation and growth: for an ECB at the service of European power and strategic autonomy

Author:
Nicolas Goetzmann
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
The succession of shocks that have hit the global economy since the beginning of 2020 highlights the strengths and vulnerabilities of the different growth models of the major global blocs, namely the United States, China and the European Union[1]. While the United States can still count on domestic consumption, which is the unsinkable foundation of the country's development, China faces the necessary evolution of a model considered obsolete by its authorities[2]. From growth guided by a level of investment that will be difficult to sustain over the long term and a trade balance that is largely in surplus, Xi Jinping's China is under increasing pressure to support its domestic demand as a means of correcting its imbalances. Situated at the centre of this Sino-American competition, the European Union - and more precisely its heartland, the euro area - finds itself weakened by sluggish domestic demand and development based largely on foreign trade, the structure of which has been geopolitically undermined over the last three years. However, the shortcomings of the European growth model came to light in the aftermath of the great financial crisis, which pushed the GDP trajectory onto a path of stagnation, the first consequence of which was that it fell behind the United States, before being overtaken by the Chinese economy in 2021.
Topic:
European Union, Economic Growth, Inflation, and Strategic Autonomy
Political Geography:
United States, China, and Europe

555. New biotechnologies, allies for food safety in the face of climate change. Where does Europe stand?

Author:
Agnès Ricroch
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
The food market is currently marked by soaring prices and shortages due to supply shocks in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic, but also to repeated extreme weather events linked to climate change; and finally, to geopolitical conflicts, in particular Russia's invasion of Ukraine. All innovations must be used to ensure food security, particularly for the European Union.
Topic:
Climate Change, Markets, European Union, Food Security, Innovation, and Biotechnology
Political Geography:
Europe

556. Moldova, land of the European Union's partnership mission

Author:
Florent Parmentier
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
Sharing 939 kilometres of borders with Ukraine, Moldova is closest to the epicentre of the war that began on 24 February 2022. From the very first weeks onwards, the Moldovan authorities had to build reception facilities for Ukrainian refugees fleeing the fighting in the south and east of the country. In diplomatic and strategic terms, this war has also played a role in accelerating events, since in June 2022 Moldova was, against all expectations, recognised as candidate country to the European Union. The credit for this European rapprochement goes largely to the leadership team headed by President Maia Sandu. He later, with her party (Party of Action and Solidarity, PAS), has led the nation's dynamic forces along this demanding path of transformation, despite the many difficulties that the country faces. The war has already changed Moldova’s geopolitical situation, which has to contend with a great number of hybrid threats from Russia. In other words, beyond the success of the European Political Community Summit, organised at Castelul Mimi on 1 June last, and the many political signals received on this occasion, Moldova still needs assistance on the road to European transformation. This is why the Europeans decided to launch a partnership mission on 31 May last in Chisinau together with the High Representative Josep Borrell, the Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Affairs Minister Nicu Popescu and the then Home Affairs Minister, Ana Revenco.
Topic:
European Union, Partnerships, Regional Integration, Hybrid Threats, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe, Ukraine, Moldova, and Eastern Europe

557. The European Union's preventive diplomacy: the exercise does not (yet) make the master

Author:
Željana Zovko
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
Ten years after the establishment of the European External Action Service, discussions are still ongoing about the lack of a single voice related to the EU’s external policy and the European Union’s global role[1]. Politic al leaders have still not found the visionary approach to start building that railroad to prevent conflicts, to fully align and act as a caretaker of the tragedies that we are facing in this volatile world. The global order is changing rapidly. Emerging powers are confronting the traditional players. New technologies and further globalisation are leading to increased international competition. Together with climate change, food security and migration, these are just a few factors that have caused rising tensions and led to conflicts across the world which are also challenging the EU. With the Russian aggression against Ukraine, a war at the bloc’s eastern border is directly threatening the security of the entire European continent. If the European Union wants to maintain its economic and diplomatic strength globally, it needs to rethink its foreign policymaking and invest more in the prevention of these challenges. As a Member of the European Parliament, I have been appointed as rapporteur for “the role of preventive diplomacy in tackling frozen conflicts around the world, missed opportunity or change for the future”. In this role, I have drafted a set of recommendations on how the EU can improve its preventive actions. To be able to provide a constructive contribution, it is important to look back at how the EU has dealt with conflicts in the past. For years, European leaders have been discussing the EU’s preventive diplomacy. The Treaty of Lisbon states that the EU’s policies aim to “preserve peace, prevent conflicts and strengthen international security”. The EU Global Strategy (2016) presents a detailed overview of the principles behind the EU’s preventive policies. With the Strategic Compass adopted in March 2022, the leaders of the European Member States recognise that the bloc needs to double its efforts to implement an integrated approach to security, conflicts and crises. Despite these reflections, recent events have shown that the current preventive measures are often far from sufficient.
Topic:
Security, European Union, Multilateralism, International Order, and Preventive Diplomacy
Political Geography:
Europe

558. Treaty revision: is Europe ready for a qualitative leap?

Author:
Dimitris Triantafyllou
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
The discussion about a future revision of the European treaties[1] is back on the agenda. In June 2022, following the conference on the future of Europe, after consulting European citizens directly, presented its conclusions in May 2022, (including forty-nine proposals and three hundred and twenty-six concrete measures), the European Parliament called for the a Convention for the Revision of the Treaties. On 25 October 2023, the Committee on Constitutional Affairs (AFCO) suggested relaunching this call, with proposals for revision in a report due to be put to the vote at the plenary session of 20 to 23 November. A Franco-German Working Group published its recommendations on the same subject in September 2023. The President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, seemed to support, or at least not rule out, the idea of a Convention in her "State of the Union" speeches in September 2022 and 2023. In a Manifesto dated 4 October 2023 some thirty leading figures from the world of European politics and academia advocated "progressive and pragmatic" federalism for the European Union. The idea of revising the Treaties is gradually gaining ground in view of a possible further enlargement of the European Union in the medium term. Depending on the state of political resolve[2], this is expected to take place against a turbulent geopolitical backdrop, marked by the Ukrainian and Israeli-Palestinian conflicts and threats to the European Union's direct neighbourhood. The dilemma between deepening and widening has resurfaced, to be addressed by an articulated combination of the two. This means preventing enlargement before the European Union has been strengthened by changes to the way it operates, thereby avoiding obstructions to decision-making. Although the current geopolitical situation is pushing for enlargement, the need to reform the European Union ought already have been considered in much more neutral terms. For several years now, states such as China and India have been gaining in power on the international stage, competing with the United States and potentially relegating the European Union to a secondary position in the world, both economically and politically. The challenges of climate change, demographics and immigration only exacerbate this risk. The EU needs to be strengthened, independently of and before any idea of enlargement. The prospect of enlargement only serves to accelerate the process, as the catalyst of reform that sets it in it motion.
Topic:
Treaties and Agreements, European Union, Regional Integration, and Future
Political Geography:
Europe

559. The advantages and uncertainties of gas in Europe's energy transition

Author:
Clémence Pèlegrin
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
During the high-level conference organised in Paris in September, the International Energy Agency (IEA), the European Central Bank (ECB) and the European Investment Bank (EIB) hailed the speed with which the European Union has freed itself from its energy dependence on Russia. According to the three institutions, the task now will be to consolidate and perpetuate this autonomy, which was achieved so quickly and to the surprise of many observers. The IEA also recalled the staggering amounts of annual investment needed to implement the energy transition, and the budgetary efforts required by the European Union in this area, in reference to the commitment to devote at least 30% of its 2021-2027 budget to climate action. The Covid-19 pandemic had already disrupted European discourse on the energy transition, just a few months after Ursula von der Leyen's inaugural speech on the The European Green Deal in 2019 and the advent of a just transition in Europe. Despite the health context and strong political opposition in the Member States over the place to be given to the energy transition in regard to short-term economic recovery, the European Union has maintained the course of an ambitious energy transition and strengthened its intermediate objectives for 2030, (Fit for 55 - The EU's plan for a green transition - Consilium), with a 55% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions). In February 2022, the war in Ukraine sparked a new energy crisis: faced with the risk of disruption to gas supplies, the need to simultaneously decarbonise the economy and the energy mix, once again became a political imperative for the European Union. Energy efficiency and the promotion of energy-saving policies were identified as necessary and complementary ways of securing the continent's gas supplies. At the heart of long-standing political debates in Europe, the future of gas is inevitably being shaped by a downward trend: even in the scenario of complete substitution of fossil gas by green gas, the decarbonisation scenarios in Europe all point to a reduction in the use of the latter by 2050. Structural effects, such as global warming and the resulting tendency for milder winters, and cyclical effects, such as the energy crisis and the recent rise in prices experienced by households, are already pointing to a decline in the demand for gas, as a result of efforts to economise or consumers switching from gas. However, gas continues to provide services to the European energy system, in particular to satisfy heating requirements and energy for cooking by producing electricity during peaks in demand, or in the industrial sector where its complete substitution is not yet possible. This article provides a summary of three of the main issues surrounding the future of gas in the European Union: changing energy dependency; competition between gas and other energies in the European energy mix; and the development of green gas and its political future in a context of electrification.
Topic:
Climate Change, European Union, Gas, Crisis Management, and Energy Transition
Political Geography:
Europe

560. Ten urgent Franco-German issues for Europe

Author:
Joachim Bitterlich
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
In recent years, political and economic upheavals have accelerated: the ongoing migration crisis, the spillover of the conflictual relationship between the United States and China, the global pandemic, the energy crisis, Russia’s military invasion of Ukraine and the conflict over Gaza following the terrorist attack by Hamas. Faced with this growing insecurity and volatility, the European Union has shown to be only partially united, or even convincing: in some respects, Europe seems to be rather more on the defensive. It is far from achieving its objective of being a global player on the same level as the United States or China on the international scale, and is unable to demonstrate a real strategy to tackle these accumulated challenges and, above all, to convince Europe’s populations. In the light of the electoral trends, we have been observing for some time in various Member States, the European elections in June 2024 may even further jeopardise the strength and prospects of the European Union, as well as its operational capacities. Under these conditions, how can we ensure its credibility and cohesion in a deeply troubled world? An ambitious programme of consolidation and reinsurance is a political necessity now more than ever. Such a programme, initiated by Paris and Berlin, should provide a common compass for the Union over the next five years. In my view this comprises 10 urgent inputs.
Topic:
Bilateral Relations, European Union, Interview, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Europe, France, and Germany