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531. Patchwork procurement? How to bridge parallel initiatives in EU joint defence procurement

Author:
Cédric Lombaerts and Lucrezia Sala
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
The EU’s defence-industrial base was conceived during peacetime and, because of the ensuing market fragmentation, does not seem fit for purpose to deal with wartime. In an attempt to remedy this, the EU launched several parallel joint defence procurement initiatives (EDIRPA, EDIP, the three-track approach under the European Peace Facility). Between these initiatives, it is easy to lose sight of the forest in the trees of joint procurement. How do these parallel tracks of procurement tie in together? Are they not fragmenting collaborative procurement efforts even further? This CEPS Policy Brief sheds clarity on the interplay between these initiatives and suggests four pragmatic paths towards an overarching joint defence procurement framework while playing into the most salient deadlocks in joint defence procurement today.
Topic:
Defense Policy, European Union, and Procurement
Political Geography:
Europe

532. Regional actor, global player: Can the EU get the best of both worlds?

Author:
Zachary Paikin, Shada Islam, and Sven Biscop
Publication Date:
06-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
The collapse of Europe’s security order coincides with a period of global transformation. Both these phenomena threaten to change the international environment that the EU has grown accustomed to and that has served its interests relatively well. They also raise major questions over the sort of actor the EU wants to be – regional or global. While the immense challenges of internal reform and breathing new life into a now-geopolitical enlargement process suggest a regional focus for the EU’s core strategic priorities, the EU can still take certain measures to avoid losing sight of the rest of the world. If the EU is serious about retaining its influence as a global actor, it must rethink its traditional way of doing business with the ‘Global South’ and learn how to autonomously navigate an unpredictable – and often fractious – multipolar world.
Topic:
Security, Reform, European Union, and Global South
Political Geography:
Europe

533. The EU accession prospects of Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia

Author:
Michael Emerson, Tinatin Akhvlediani, Denis Cenusa, Veronika Movchan, and Artem Remizov
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
In the week following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022 all three East European states associated with the EU – Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia – submitted applications to accede to the EU. In response, the European Commission published ‘Opinions’ in June, setting out in each case conditions that should be met for these applications to advance on the path towards membership. This paper reports on the first half-year of the work undertaken by the three states to meet these conditions. All three states have set in motion actions largely concerning the fundamental political and rule of law criteria for membership. In all cases there is much work in progress underway, with some conditions already met, and others at an earlier stage. For both Ukraine and Moldova, it is possible that the majority of conditions will be met in the course of 2023. For Georgia there are still some more basic political obstacles to be overcome. The Commission is due to publish in October 2023 comprehensive evaluations of the preparedness of each of the three states, and in the case that the conditions are largely met, the EU should as a next step open up the formal accession negotiation process. It is also recommended that the EU reform by that time the accession process itself, notably by switching to qualified majority voting on the details of the procedures, and better still adopting a staged accession process that would assure structured incentives for overcoming the blockages in the present system as seen in the Western Balkans.
Topic:
Politics, European Union, Rule of Law, and Regional Integration
Political Geography:
Europe, Moldova, and Georgia

534. One year of war in Ukraine

Author:
Christian Leffler
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
It has been just over one year since Russia began its brutal war of aggression against Ukraine. In that year, the EU has stepped up and provided copious amounts of support to Ukraine – economic and military, as well as providing a safe haven for millions of Ukrainians who have fled the fighting. As the conflict has now entered its second year, this CEPS Explainer dives deep to analyse what has defined the first year and then expands on what the EU needs to concretely do in the second if Ukraine is to have any hope of triumphing over the invaders. This will require vision, courage and boldness from European leaders. The alternative if they fail? A rules-based international order replaced by a ruthless multipolar world defined by competing spheres of influence.
Topic:
European Union, Armed Conflict, International Order, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

535. Europe after the War

Author:
Rym Ayadi, Paolo Garonna, and Goran Svilanovic
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
This book, a collaboration between CEPS and the Euro-Mediterranean Economists Association (EMEA), is a collection of papers which discuss the impact of the war in Ukraine on Europe spanning a wide range of areas from geopolitical scenarios to economic prospects, sustainable energy to logistics, and the Eastern European dimension to EU-Africa relations. The authors of this book believe that we are living an unprecedented ‘European moment’, and that this moment can and should be seized upon to respond to present and future shocks. Both the papers collected in this volume and the manifesto presented point out the most promising directions of the leap forward that is required – more assertive and unified policies towards Eastern Europe, the Euro-Mediterranean region and Africa, a federalist drive towards more effective and fairer economic and social governance, the fight against polarisation, and the strengthening of liberal democracy.
Topic:
European Union, Finance, Cooperation, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, and Mediterranean

536. The Sunshine Problem: Climate Change and Managed Decline in the European Union

Author:
Timur Ergen and Luuk Schmitz
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Max Planck Sciences Po Center on Coping with Instability in Market Societies (MaxPo)
Abstract:
Decarbonization requires the winding down of – economically – fully viable, if not highly prosperous, lines of economic activity. Different from past episodes of industrial restructuring revolving around the managed decline of sunset industries, accelerating climate change requires reallocation away from economic activities where the metaphorical sun is still shining. Firms, owners, workers, regions, and polities structurally rely on these sources of prosperity and have interwoven their past and future lives with them. We argue that this problem has created a space for state actors to experiment with vertical industrial policies to manage the reallocation of resources from polluting to non-polluting activities. We illustrate this dynamic by investigating the least-likely case of the European Union, a polity heavily tilted towards market governance. European climate policymakers, we argue, have incrementally moved away from the primacy of regulatory, market-making tools and have introduced a plethora of vertical instruments to shift resources away from climate-harming fields. This experimentation with vertical policies unfolds against the backdrop of a thirtyyear institutional legacy of single market-oriented policy in the energy field.
Topic:
Climate Change, Industrial Policy, European Union, Social Cohesion, and Green Transition
Political Geography:
Europe

537. The EU–US Data Protection Framework: Balancing Economic, Security and Privacy Considerations

Author:
Federica Marconi
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The rapid evolution of digital technology has ushered in a data-centric economy, where data accessibility drives marketplace efficiency and economic growth across various industries. However, this shift, while offering numerous benefits, introduces significant privacy and data security challenges, particularly in the context of transatlantic data transfers. Considering the vast economic ties between the EU and the US, the transatlantic data flow vividly illustrates the complexities involved in governing and transferring data. It grapples with the ongoing challenge of striking a satisfactory balance between economic advantages stemming from data utilisation and various concerns pertaining to national security, digital sovereignty and individual rights. In recent years, the European Commission approved two different frameworks on transatlantic data flow – Safe Harbour in 2000[1] and Privacy Shield in 2016[2] – asserting that the US provided a level of data protection for data transfers essentially equivalent to that guaranteed in the EU. However, despite initial optimism, both adequacy decisions faced a significant setback when the Court of Justice of the European Union invalidated them in what is commonly referred to as the “Schrems saga”,[3] named after the Austrian activist who first challenged both frameworks before the European Court. The core arguments centred on the absence of adequate safeguards for personal data within US domestic law and the extent of state surveillance over such data when it was transferred, as initially disclosed by Edward Snowden in 2013.[4] This legal development led to a period of significant uncertainty and further heightened the ongoing debate concerning the regulation of transatlantic data transfer. To address the consequences of this legal turmoil, both EU and the US committed to establishing “a renewed and sound framework for transatlantic data flows”,[5] seeking a long-term solution to address the complexities of data privacy and security, eventually leading to the recently adopted EU–US Data Privacy Framework (“DPF”).
Topic:
Security, Economics, Political Economy, European Union, Privacy, Transatlantic Relations, and Digital Policy
Political Geography:
Europe and United States of America

538. Climate Action, Geopolitical Risks and Strategic Policy: The Western Race to Secure Critical Raw Materials

Author:
Salvatore Finizio
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Climate action, economic competition and geopolitical shifts are more intertwined than ever. In the wake of the skyrocketing inflation and deteriorating China relations, United States President Joe Biden signed the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) into law on 16 August 2022. Conceived as the foundation of the new US industrial policy, the IRA aims to rebuild the country’s industrial capacity, including 500 billion US dollars in new spending and tax breaks, among which almost 400 billion aimed at boosting clean energy.[1] Across the Atlantic, the European Union expressed concerns about the potential loss of industrial competitiveness resulting from the IRA. In response, the EU unveiled its own Green Deal Industrial Plan (GDIP) in February 2023.[2] The objective of this plan is to promote the enhancement of net-zero manufacturing capacities in order to meet the EU’s climate targets. Both the IRA and the GDIP have a common goal of reducing dependence on China, especially in clean technology, although through different approaches. The US focuses on bringing high-value production back to its shores, while the EU aims to develop and diversify supply chains.[3] This divergence is also reflected in the debate between “decoupling” and “derisking”, with the latter recently gaining prominence as policymakers recognise the challenges of completely reshoring supply chains domestically.[4] The US and the EU share industrial and geoeconomic objectives, but will also encounter similar challenges, in particular concerning the first stages of green supply chains. Despite their heterogeneous approaches, Western policymakers will in fact have to secure critical raw materials for clean technology manufacturing, with the aim of resourcing the energy transition.
Topic:
Security, Politics, European Union, Institutions, Energy, and Raw Materials
Political Geography:
China, Europe, and United States of America

539. Europe is Stuck Over the Israel-Hamas War

Author:
Maria Luisa Fantappiè and Nathalie Tocci
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Since the horrific attack launched by Hamas on Israeli citizens on 7 October and the brutal ongoing Israeli military response, European governments and publics have rallied behind two diametrically opposite worldviews: unconditional support for Israel’s right to self-defence versus solidarity with Palestinians massacred by Israel’s military operation in Gaza. Europe should work proactively to chart its way in this inflammatory debate, rather than passively buying into the polarising narratives from Israeli and Arab public debates and allowing these to sow divisions, paralyse action, hamper credibility and poison democracies.
Topic:
Politics, European Union, Hamas, Narrative, and October 7
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

540. Critical Crossroads: Tunisia’s Choice between a Comprehensive EU Partnership and Economic Collapse

Author:
Ghazi Ben Ahmed
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
ince the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Tunisian authorities reached in October 2022 a staff-level agreement to support Tunisia’s economic policies, Tunisian President Kais Saied has been standing at the Rubicon. Lacking a vision to revive the Tunisian economy, President Saied has opted for a strategy of diversion and scapegoating. By blowing on the embers of xenophobia among his supporters and more recently by stoking the flames in the Middle East, he continues to deflect attention to conceal his economic short-sightedness and claims autonomy from foreign – mainly European – aid, in the name of sovereignty. This posture has now trapped him in his own rhetoric at a time when the Tunisian economy struggles without signs of recovery or resilience in a challenging regional and global landscape. Time is ticking, the situation remains grim, and the country may miss another opportunity to resume economic growth.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Foreign Aid, European Union, Partnerships, and IMF
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, Italy, and Tunisia