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2171. Gauging The Effects of Fiscal Stimulus Packages In The Euro Area

Author:
Gunter Coenen, Ronald Straub, and Mathias Trabandt
Publication Date:
11-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
We seek to quantify the impact on euro area GDP of the European Economic Recovery Plan (EERP) enacted in response to the financial crisis of 2008-09. To do so, we estimate an extended version of the ECB’s New Area-Wide Model with a richly specified fiscal sector. The estimation results point to the existence of important complementarities between private and government consumption and, to a lesser extent, between private and public capital. We first examine the implied present-value multipliers for seven distinct fiscal instruments and show that the estimated complementarities result in fiscal multipliers larger than one for government consumption and investment. We highlight the importance of monetary accommodation for these findings. We then show that the EERP, if implemented as initially enacted, had a sizeable, although short-lived impact on euro area GDP. Since the EERP comprised both revenue and expenditure-based fiscal stimulus measures, the total multiplier is below unity.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation, Governance, European Union, Stimulus, and Economic Recovery
Political Geography:
Europe

2172. Security Policy in the European Union and the United States through the issue of their Defence Expenditures

Author:
Theodore Metaxas and Emmanouil Marios L. Economou
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
Institution:
Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
Abstract:
This article aims to clarify how the level of defence expenditures affected security poli- cy in the post-World War II Europe and the United States till the present day. We first analyze theoretically the issue of a nation’s power through its defence outlays. We then proceed to the examination of how security policy was formulated during Cold War and afterwards for both Europe and the United States through their defence ex- penditures. By comparing European to United States defence budgets ceilings we found that the European military capabilities are undermined by the low level of the defence budget which is provided by the European Union member states as a whole, as well as by the lack of homogeneity in military means. By contrast, we noticed that the historically large US defence expenditures were one of the major reasons for the US global hegemony during Cold war and afterwards. We also examine the implica- tions that defence expenditures have on military industry, macroeconomic perfor- mance and geopolitics and the correlation that arises among them.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Regional Cooperation, European Union, and Regionalism
Political Geography:
Europe, North America, and United States of America

2173. The Transatlantic Relationship in the 21st Century: Challenges and Opportunities

Author:
Charles King Mallory
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:
Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:
When one has the opportunity to visit the heart of Anatolia, it is often an eye-opener. While we may read about developments in Turkey, it is quite different to absorb with all of your senses the numerous signs of a flourishing, vibrant, growing, modernizing Democracy. As such, Turkey is more important to U.S. foreign and security policy than ever before. Turkey can act as a strategic bridge along multiple azimuths. Turkey can also become a greater stakeholder and can act as a stabilizer, persuader, facilitator, mediator, as well as an example, as the global community struggles to cope with the challenges and opportunities presented by the new, emerging post-Cold-War strategic landscape. In this article I will touch on three topics: First, I will offer a brief assessment of where Turkey’s bilateral relations with the European Union and the United States stand from a U.S. point of view; next, I will describe three major strategic challenges that I believe Turkey, the European Union and the United States face in the Greater Middle East; and finally, I will attempt to analyze where the opportunities for and challenges to cooperation between Turkey, the European Union and the United States lie, given where bilateral relations stand and the challenges facing them.
Topic:
International Relations, NATO, Bilateral Relations, European Union, and Transatlantic Relations
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and United States of America

2174. International Security – One Paradigm Change after the Other

Author:
Willem F. van Eekelen
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:
Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:
During the past two decades our basic notions of security underwent repeated changes. To account for these changes, this piece deals with the most important historical events that shaped our understanding of security as well as the new challenges ahead such as the systemic changes, regional security initiatives from the EU, changing roles of militaries in advanced democracies and recent austerity measures’ effects on the security sector.
Topic:
International Relations, International Security, European Union, Democracy, Regional Integration, and Austerity
Political Geography:
Europe

2175. Possible Scenarios in Cyprus: Assuming There is No Solution

Author:
Mensur Akgün
Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:
Halted after the Greek Cypriot rejection of the Annan Plan (by 75.83%) at a referendum held on 24th April 2004, inter-communal negotiations restarted on a technical level on 18th April 2008 and on a political level on 25th July 2008. Since then, hundreds of negotiations have been held at different levels between the parties. Although the negotiations still continue – as of February 2012 it is said that a conference is to be held with the participation of the guarantor states – at the time this article was written, a bi-zonal and bi-communal solution seems farther away than ever before. The parties, especially the Greek Cypriots, continue with the negotiations just to avoid being seen as the one who left the table. n this article, Mensur Akgun analyses the position of Turkish government to possible scenario with outcome of no solution deriving from Turkey’s emphasis on to freeze relations with the EU as of 1st July 2012, when the Republic of Cyprus, which is represented only by the Greek Cypriots, will assume the EU Presidency.
Topic:
International Relations, Territorial Disputes, European Union, and Negotiation
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Cyprus, and Mediterranean

2176. Is Free Trade with the EU Good for Ukraine?

Author:
Marek Dabrowski and Svitlana Taran
Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
The negotiations on the Association Agreement (AA) between the European Union (EU) and Ukraine, including its trade component, i.e., the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement (DCFTA), were completed in December 2011. The agreement is practically ready to be signed, if the EU’s concerns related to the deteriorating political freedoms in Ukraine are addressed. The ball is now in Ukraine’s court and the correct and rapid response is crucial for the country’s future. Both the AA and the DCFTA offer Ukraine an opportunity to deepen its political and economic relations with the EU and modernize its own economy and state institutions. However, if fundamental economic, political, and institutional reforms are not accelerated and conducted in a more comprehensive and consistent way, the prospect of implementing the DCFTA (and its potential benefits) will come under question.
Topic:
Globalization, European Union, Free Trade, Trade, and Economic Integration
Political Geography:
Europe, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

2177. The need for contingency planning: potential scenarios of Eurozone disintegration

Author:
Marek Dabrowski
Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
Since the beginning of 2010, the common currency area in Europe found itself under serious strain as a consequence of the sovereign debt crisis in several member states. While a substantial political and financial effort has been made to avoid a collapse of the Euro project, its ultimate outcome remains uncertain due to continuous financial market pressures and political challenges faced by individual member states. Therefore, one cannot entirely rule out the possibility of either a partial or total breakup of the Eurozone, even if such a demise would bring about disastrous economic and political consequences for the entire EU and its external partners.
Topic:
Debt, European Union, Economic Policy, Macroeconomics, and Eurozone
Political Geography:
Europe

2178. From Funder to Partner? Prospects for the European Neighbourhood Policy's Civil Society Facility

Publication Date:
10-2011
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Open Society Foundations
Abstract:
The Arab Spring was a timely reminder to the EU of its own transitions, in particular events post-1989, and how civil society was at the heart of all of them. The EU now intends to foster a “partnership with societies” in its eastern and southern neighborhood, in part by creating a facility to provide dedicated support to ensure civil society organizations can monitor reform and participate effectively in their own national debates. The Open Society Institute-Brussels has assessed current proposals, identified challenges, drawn lessons from experience, and identified six areas that will be integral to an effective Civil Society Facility within the Neighbourhood Policy: Funding for civil society needs to be accompanied by political support for CSOs (e.g. statements and tripartite meetings on pressing issues). In order to build capacity the principle EU actor (the EU delegation in-country) needs capacity of its own. Consultations with CSOs are useful if they are planned, regular and genuine—particularly in-country. Supporting local ownership through channeling funds to existing resources (e.g. providing existing networks with logistics and strategic funding) is more effective than putting in place new, parallel structures. Investing in structures that continue beyond the Facility implementation period (e.g. providing 3-4 year core support to develop CSO institutional capacities or putting in place offices to facilitate civil society-government links) will enable national CSO champions or standard-setters to emerge. Paying close attention to the local CSO sector, political and donor context to better meet needs and avoid supporting either less-relevant issues or government-organized organizations. An engaged and robust civil society which holds governments to account is increasingly both a mechanism and a goal of EU foreign policy. Upgrading the EU's relationship with civil society from benevolent paymaster to a strategic investor in partnerships for change will pay dividends to the societies which are transforming in its neighborhood as well as to the EU itself. For a genuine shift towards a “partnership with societies,” maximum local participation and ownership has to be matched by maximum political and practical commitment from the EU. This could be the essence of a real and mutually beneficial partnership.
Topic:
Civil Society, Regional Cooperation, Governance, European Union, Accountability, and Funding
Political Geography:
Europe

2179. EU Policy Towards the Eastern Neighbours: A New Wave of Improvement

Publication Date:
05-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Open Society Foundations
Abstract:
The Open Society Foundations have local offices in all of the Eastern Partnership countries except for Belarus, and many thematic programs working on human rights and governance. We believe that the EU's engagement, with a toolbox largely drawn from the enlargement policy, is the best framework for promoting political reform in these countries, particularly when it is coupled with clearly articulated conditionality. This short assessment by the Open Society Foundations sets out the main lessons learned from our experience in the region and give ideas on how to enhance the EU’s efforts to strengthen prosperity, stability and security in its neighbourhood.
Topic:
Human Rights, Regional Cooperation, International Security, Governance, Reform, European Union, and Regional Economy
Political Geography:
Europe

2180. How Could a European Endowment for Democracy Add Value?

Publication Date:
09-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Open Society Foundations
Abstract:
The European Union has asked for proposals from the Commission and High Representative to establish a European Endowment for Democracy (EED). Various options are being discussed in Brussels; from potential recipients, to geographic scope, to thematic focus. The debate surrounding the EED provides an opportunity for EU support to civil society to become more extensive and flexible than allowed under current funding rules. The possible creation of a Convention or new agency, and/or the reform of the financial regulation affecting current funding instruments (in particular the European Instrument for Democracy and Human Rights), deserve support if they offer less burdensome mechanisms for non-governmental actors to access and manage EU funds. This discussion paper explores the potential added value of the EED in relation to the actors and scope of activities currently supported by the EU, and how it would add value to existing modalities of support to civil society. The most valuable outcome of this debate, regardless of whether an EED is established, would be if EU support became more responsive to the needs of the actors working in support of human rights and democracy.
Topic:
Civil Society, Human Rights, European Union, and Democracy
Political Geography:
Europe