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2141. EU-Turkey Relations: Towards a Constructive Re-engagement?

Author:
Aycan Akdeniz
Publication Date:
10-2013
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:
This report is written by Aycan Akdeniz who is a political analyst at the Delegation of the European Union (EU) to Turkey. This report analyzes the “cautious optimism” elicited by the recent developments after a long period of stalemate in Turkey-EU relations. Written in a period after the opening of Chapter 22 through the lifting of the French veto and the publication of the 16. Progress Report, the report examines the effects of the euro crisis, the “Arab Spring”, the Cyprus Issue and the Gezi Park protests on the future of Turkey-EU relations and draws conclusions on what is needed to be done by both sides for a constructive re-engagement between Turkey and the EU. Bu çalışma, Avrupa Birliği(AB) Türkiye Delegasyonu’ndan Aycan Akdeniz tarafından hazırlanmıştır. Rapor Türkiye-AB ilişkilerinin tıkanma noktasına geldiği bir dönemin ardından son gelişmeler ışığında ortaya çıkan “temkinli iyimserlik” ortamını değerlendirmektedir. 22. Başlık’ın Fransa’nın vetosunu kaldırmasıyla açıldığı ve 16. İlerleme Raporu’nun yayımlandığı bir dönemde yazılan bu rapor euro krizi, “Arap Baharı”, Kıbrıs sorunu ve Gezi protestolarının Türkiye-AB ilişkileri ve ilişkilerinin geleceği üzerinde etkisini ve bu ilişkilerin güçlenmesi için tarafların ne yapması gerektiğini incelemektedir.
Topic:
International Relations, European Union, Arab Spring, and Protests
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Cyprus

2142. The European Global Strategy and the Mediterranean

Author:
Roberto Aliboni
Publication Date:
06-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
IEMed/EuroMeSCo
Abstract:
Many recent comments on the EU's Mediterranean policy come to the conclusion that the challenge raised by the Arab Spring has less to do with existing policies than with lack of strategy. Both in the southern neighborhood and in general, all parameters underlying the Mediterranean policy have changed dramatically.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Diplomacy, and European Union
Political Geography:
Europe and Middle East

2143. Narrow Focus, Broad Vision: A Strategic View of the Eastern Partnership

Author:
Emmet Tuohy and Anna Bulakh
Publication Date:
10-2013
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:
In 2009, the EU’s Eastern Partnership (EP) initiative was launched with high hopes of spreading some of the fruits of the 2004 and 2007 enlargements to the countries on Europe’s eastern periphery. The main objectives of the program—targeted at six states, three in Eastern Europe (Belarus, Moldova, Ukraine) and three in the South Caucasus (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia)—have been to support these countries in terms of economic and political reform, socio-economic development, and other fields, with the long-term objective of promoting deeper cooperation with the EU. In 2009, the EU’s Eastern Partnership (EP) initiative was launched with high hopes of spreading some of the fruits of the 2004 and 2007 enlargements to the countries on Europe’s eastern periphery. The main objectives of the program—targeted at six states, three in Eastern Europe (Belarus, Moldova, Ukraine) and three in the South Caucasus (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia)—have been to support these countries in terms of economic and political reform, socio-economic development, and other fields, with the long-term objective of promoting deeper cooperation with the EU. Unfortunately, in the last four years these high expectations have simply not been met. While there have been elements of success, the record of the EP has also demonstrated the limits of the EU’s foreign policy influence […] Accordingly, the upcoming Vilnius summit—marking the fourth anniversary of the establishment of the EP—will be an opportunity for the EU to take stock and reevaluate not only its perception of the partnership states, but also its broader foreign policy objectives and the instruments through which it seeks to accomplish them. It has been argued that the key reason for supporting the Eastern Partnership is because it enables the EU to spread its values. Yet, this is precisely the thing that the European Union cannot (and should not) be doing at this point in time. […] Yet, even while the EU may not have the capacity to create a wide space for the European values of consensus and liberal democracy stretching across the Eurasian landmass from Portugal to the Pacific, it can and does have the ability to deepen cooperation with its Eastern partners on areas that support its interest. In this paper, we concentrate on the most important such dimension: energy security.
Topic:
Security, Development, Economics, Energy Policy, Politics, European Union, and Partnerships
Political Geography:
Europe, Ukraine, Moldova, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Belarus

2144. Ukraine's European Integration: Internal Factors and External Influences

Author:
Valeriya Klymenko
Publication Date:
01-2013
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
National Security and Defence
Institution:
Razumkov Centre
Abstract:
Today, making an ultimate choice over its integration path is a sensitive and highly pressing issue for Ukraine. In November 2013, the 3rd summit of the Eastern Partnership in Vilnius is to see the signing of the Association Agreement, which aims for political association and economic integration, including a deep and comprehensive free trade area. This is a qualitatively new level of cooperation between Kyiv and Brussels based on strategic perspective. In fact, the Agreement will mark the start of implementing the far-reaching reforms in different sectors of domestic life in Ukraine designed to draw the country closer to meeting the standards of a state-candidate for accession to the EU. Apparently, the success of the Agreement remains conditional on joint efforts on behalf of the authorities, opposition, civil institutions, and Ukrainian society in general. One should keep in mind that the signing of the Agreement will give a start to the long process of its ratification by national parliaments of the EU countries. However, there exists a real opportunity to ensure practical implementation of some items of the document in the near future, which will give an impetus to strengthening contacts between Kyiv and Brussels and promote internal transformations in Ukraine. If the document is not signed or implemented too slowly and inconsistently, as was the case with prior arrangements with the EU, Ukraine will lose its historic opportunity. Meanwhile, the Customs Union countries (first of all, Russia) step up efforts to have Ukraine join that alliance, and later – the Eurasian Economic Union. That said, the Customs Union leaders see the Memorandum of Deeper Integration between Ukraine and the Eurasian Economic Commission signed on 31 May 2013, as the first step on the road to Ukraine’s Eurasian integration. The two processes – preparations for signing of the Association Agreement with the EU on the one hand, and new attempts of Russia to involve Ukraine in the Eurasian integration on the other – happen to coincide in time. At that, representatives of both the EU and the Customs Union speak of a need for a clear choice – Ukraine has to either sign the Agreement of Association with the EU, or join the Customs Union. Integration projects of Brussels and Moscow in the post-Soviet space differ in nature, substance and goals. Russia, while trying to create a regional structure counterbalancing the EU on the European continent, uses “energy incentives” to seduce Ukraine. At that, no attention has been paid to ensuring democratic nature of the country’s development. For Brussels, proper democracy, civil society, rule of law, independent judicial system and respect for human rights and freedoms have always played a decisive role in bringing Ukraine closer to European integration. Choosing between two integration lines means choosing between different basic and fundamental values, between two different models of Ukraine’s further development. Ukraine either joins the EU uniting European countries on the basis of European norms, rules and standards, or becomes a member of a union of post-Soviet states with transitional economies and numerous problems with democracy. Ukraine’s European choice is strongly influenced by a number of internal and external factors. The internal factors hindering Ukraine’s movement towards the EU include the practice of selective justice, weak electoral legislation, lack of real anti-corruption efforts, and slow pace of reforms envisaged by the Association Agenda. Solving these problems has been prioritised by the EU. The same was indicated in the conclusions of the EU Council of Ministers (10 December 2012) and the so-called “Füle list”, released later. The external factors include strong geopolitical influence exerted on Ukraine by both the EU and Russia. Today, this influence is growing with Moscow and Brussels showing strong willingness to see Ukraine join their integration projects. The analysis of the situation cited in this report shows that the European way of development best of all goes in line with national interests of Ukraine. It is also evident that Ukraine’s European choice should not be an alternative to the development of mutually advantageous, equal and transparent relations in different sectors with countries of the Customs Union, first of all – Russia.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Energy Policy, European Union, and Regional Integration
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

2145. The EU Visa Liberalization Process in the Western Balkans Countries: A Comparative Assessment

Author:
Armend Muja
Publication Date:
10-2013
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
Abstract:
The comparative analysis takes Kosovo’s roadmap as a baseline and assesses every country’s standing towards that reference. The analysis narrows down to 16 months – the date when the first roadmaps were delivered to WB countries (with the exception of Kosovo), in March 2008 and October 2010 when the last recommendations were made to the EU Council for the liberalisation of visa regime for all Western Balkan countries.
Topic:
European Union, Regional Integration, Visa, and Liberalization
Political Geography:
Europe, Kosovo, and Balkans

2146. The Systemic Risk of European Banks

Author:
Lamont Black, Ricardo Correa, Xu Huang, and Hao Zhou
Publication Date:
07-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
We propose a hypothetical distress insurance premium (DIP) as a measure of the European banking systemic risk, which integrates the characteristics of bank size, default probability, and interconnectedness. Based on this measure, the systemic risk of European banks reached its height in late 2011 around E 500 billion. We find that the sovereign default spread is the factor driving this heightened risk in the banking sector during the European debt crisis. The methodology can also be used to identify the individual contributions of over 50 major European banks to the systemic risk measure. This approach captures the large contribution of a number of systemically important European banks, but Italian and Spanish banks as a group have notably increased their systemic importance. We also find that bank-specific fundamentals predict the one-year-ahead systemic risk contribution of our sample of banks in an economically meaningful way.
Topic:
Debt, Regional Cooperation, European Union, Regulation, Risk, Fiscal Policy, and Banking
Political Geography:
Europe

2147. Can Structural Reforms Help Europe?

Author:
Gauti Eggertsson, Andrea Ferrero, and Andrea Raffo
Publication Date:
11-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
Structural reforms that increase competition in product and labor markets are often indicated as the main policy option available for peripheral Europe to regain competitiveness and boost output. We show that, in a crisis that pushes the nominal interest rate to its lower bound, these reforms do not support economic activity in the short run, and may well be contractionary. Absent the appropriate monetary stimulus, reforms fuel expectations of prolonged deflation, increase the real interest rate, and depress aggregate demand. Our findings carry important implications for the current debate on the timing and the design of structural reforms in Europe.
Topic:
Reform, European Union, Economic structure, and Regionalism
Political Geography:
Europe

2148. Bridging a (Mis)perceptional Gap: The EU's Eastern Partnership and Russian Policies in the Trans-Caucasus

Author:
Alexander Sergunin
Publication Date:
03-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
BILGESAM (Wise Men Center for Strategic Studies)
Abstract:
The launch of the EU’s Eastern Partnership in 2009 has puzzled both Russian decision-makers and experts. To the date they cannot arrive to any specific conclusion: whether this project is another geopolitical challenge to Russia’s domination in the post-Soviet space or a potential platform for cooperation both with the EU and countries of the region? The author believes that regardless numerous misunderstandings and misperceptions there is a ‘window of opportunity’ for the EU, Russia and Trans-Caucasian countries to develop a joint cooperative strategy.
Topic:
European Union, Partnerships, Geopolitics, and Soft Power
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Caucasus

2149. Europe in Transition: Lessons to be Learned

Author:
Ludger Kühnhardt
Publication Date:
01-2013
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:
Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:
In this age of instant global media coverage, it is easy to lose perspective as well as one’s view of the horizon. A week is a long time in politics, as the saying goes. A week of media coverage may be even longer, one might add. And after months of coverage, a single issue may have turned from fact to fiction or from fiction to fact. An event can become a process, a challenge can become a problem, a difficulty can become a crisis. Cause and effect may become blurred by the subtle power of media and the shorthand that is inevitably used to frame a phenomenon. Explanations can give way to labels, for better or worse. The European Union (EU) has been on this roller coaster for the last three years. When Lehmann Brothers of the United States (US) went bankrupt in 2008, the root causes of the crash were swiftly connected with that country’s mortgage crisis (subprime bubble). Too many too-cheap mortgages had made too many Americans the owner of a house that they could suddenly no longer finance. It seemed to be solely an American problem to have lived beyond one’s means; Europe was only challenged by finding a way to avoid the spillover effects from the US financial crisis. Three years later, however, the tides of fortune had changed. The sovereign debt crises of Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Italy turned into a crisis of the euro, if not of the European Union. Not only were causes and effects confused; context and implication had also become confusing.
Topic:
International Relations, Financial Crisis, European Union, and Transition
Political Geography:
Europe

2150. Good Governance of the Security Sector in Turkey

Author:
Willem van Eekelen and Merijn Hartog
Publication Date:
01-2013
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:
Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:
The Centre for European Security Studies (CESS or the Centre) in the Netherlands has conducted three consecutive capacity-building programmes on civil-military relations and good governance of the security sector in Turkey since 2004. This was done in close cooperation with local partners from Ankara and Istanbul and financially supported by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Netherlands. As the last programme, which commenced in 2010, draws to a close, the time has come to reflect on the outcomes of the work of CESS in Turkey.
Topic:
Security, Governance, Military Affairs, and European Union
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Mediterranean