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1961. EU and Latin America A Stronger Partnership?

Author:
Antonella Mori
Publication Date:
12-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:
Despite a stop-and-go policy, over the past twenty years the European Union, Latin America, and the Caribbean Region have joined forces to scale-up their partnership. Today, the time seems ripe for the EU to give new impetus to bi-regional relations as the US interest in the region appears to be decreasing, and China quickly steps in. The near future will indicate whether the political will to bolster relations between the EU and the region is actually stronger than before: how will the agreements between the EU and Mexico, Chile, and the Caribbean be updated? Will the EU-MERCOSUR Association Agreement be completed? If so, the EU will be able to enact free trade agreements with all the countries in the region, except Bolivia, Venezuela and Cuba. The latter is already involved in its first ever negotiation with the EU to strengthen bilateral cooperation. This volume provides an overview and wide-ranging analyses on the ongoing negotiations, viable options and possible results.
Topic:
International Relations, European Union, Partnerships, and Free Trade
Political Geography:
Europe, Latin America, and Caribbean

1962. Progress in resolving the Greek-Macedonian name dispute

Author:
Erwan Fouéré
Publication Date:
06-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
Some might argue that Macedonia is being asked to pay an unduly heavy price simply for the sake of starting EU accession negotiations, while others will believe that the Agreement reached last weekend is well worth that price. Of all the many bilateral disputes that continue to cast a shadow over the Western Balkan region, none is more symbolic of the deep-rooted legacy of history and the politics of identity and nationalism that pervade the region than the dispute that has divided the two neighbouring countries, Greece and Macedonia, for decades and more recently since the latter’s independence in 1991 following the break-up of the former Yugoslavia. Greece, whose northern province is also called Macedonia, used every opportunity to make clear its objection to what it perceived as the appropriation by Macedonia of the heritage of Alexander the Great, and what it called its “irredentist behaviour”. Macedonia’s admission to the UN under the provisional name of the “former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia” was blocked for over a year until 1993. The Interim Agreement of 1995 lifted the 20-month Greek blockade against Macedonia and committed both sides to continue negotiations under UN auspices and enjoined Greece from blocking Macedonia’s application for membership in other international bodies as long as it did so under the provisional name. Under the patient guidance of the UN mediator Matthew Nimetz appointed in 1995, various attempts were made over the years to find a compromise solution. These intensified in the run-up to the 2008 NATO Summit when Macedonia expected to be admitted as a new member alongside Croatia and Albania. But because of Greece’s continued objections despite the Interim Agreement of 1995, only Croatia and Albania were admitted. This dealt a severe blow to Macedonia’s foreign policy aspirations, and resulted in a hardening of the populist behaviour of the then Prime Minister Nikola Gruevski. The latter had already infuriated his Greek neighbours by renaming the Skopje city airport Alexander the Great airport in the previous year. Although he initiated contacts with George Papandreou, the newly elected Prime Minister of Greece in 2009, Gruevski used the continuing dispute as a barely disguised fig leaf for his increasingly authoritarian rule and a massive building spree in Skopje. This included a 23-metre statue euphemistically called “warrior on a horse”, but clearly meant as a symbol of Alexander the Great. Using financial resources that the country could ill afford, Gruevski sought to portray himself through these monumental works of dubious quality and design as the defender of the Macedonian identity. Mr Gruevski is now facing a two-year prison sentence for corruption, which he is appealing, and four other charges of alleged abuse of power, electoral fraud, violation of public procurement laws and criminal behaviour against the public order.
Topic:
Nationalism, Treaties and Agreements, European Union, Identity, and Disputes
Political Geography:
Europe, Greece, and Macedonia

1963. Prospects for ‘Lisbon to Vladivostok’: Limited by a double asymmetry of interests

Author:
Michael Emerson
Publication Date:
06-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
Since the question of the EU opening official relations with the Eurasian Economic Union may soon become more topical, it is worthwhile considering the politics and economics of a hypothetical agreement. But on both accounts, there are basic difficulties for one party or the other. The forthcoming Austrian Presidency of the EU Council in the second half of 2018 is reportedly intending to propose an opening of a dialogue between the EU and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU)[1]. In a related vein, the new Italian government says it will block any renewal of EU sanctions against Russia. The question of how the EU might relate to the EAEU may thus become topical, and so it is worth giving some thought to the conceivable content of such interactions. Of the EAEU’s competences, the most relevant for the EU are tariffs and non-tariff barriers, notably technical product regulations and standards. The EAEU also has an extensive agenda for the development of a single market, whose chapter headings are all familiar to the EU. Some of these are operationally important, notably for the movement of people, while others are works in progress at this stage, but in general they are internal measures, rather than a matter for international agreements. For years, President Putin has been making speeches about the case for a common economic space from ‘Lisbon to Vladivostok’, without being specific about its possible content. If one is to take the slogan at face value, however, it would seem to imply at least a free trade agreement (FTA), whose core features might involve the cutting of tariffs and non-tariff barriers. Business interests in the EU are supportive of such a proposition and have undertaken some lively lobbying efforts along these lines. But is an FTA between the EU and the EAEU plausible on political and economic grounds for each side?
Topic:
European Union, Tariffs, Trade, Strategic Interests, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Europe

1964. Integrity on Trial: Judicial reform in Georgia, Ukraine and Moldova

Author:
Steven Blockmans, Nadejda Hriptievschi, Viacheslav Panasiuk, and Ekaterine Zguladze
Publication Date:
06-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
Under the terms of their Association Agreements with the EU, Georgia, Ukraine and Moldova are expected to strengthen the independence of the judiciary, establish zero tolerance of corruption in the legal profession, and reform legislation regarding prosecutors, judges and lawyers. The EU is keen to identify and build upon existing positive sources of resilience, as well as to track and respond to vulnerabilities with the mix of instruments and budgets at its disposal. It is taking a differentiated approach to improving relations with its neighbouring countries. In the case of Georgia, this raises the question of whether the radical overhaul of the Saakashvili-era reforms can withstand the corruptive practices of narrow-minded political and economic operators. In Ukraine, the challenge is how to prolong and channel the positive reform dynamic to firmly anchor institutional and procedural change in the justice sector. In Moldova, the issue is rather to insulate the pockets of successful reform while supporting drivers of change in their fight against illiberal forces. This study identifies innovations in the three associated states’ justice sectors. It analyses changes to both the ‘hardware’ of the justice system, i.e. the constitutional and institutional frameworks, and the ‘software’, i.e. the selection, appointment, promotion and disciplinary procedures and other means to fight corruption in the justice sector. It concludes with a review of existing court practice with the AA/DCFTAs. By doing so, the paper not only gauges national judges’ awareness about the need to enforce their country’s contractual obligations with the EU, it also offers insights into the degree of domestic courts’ openness to use international/European law to put an end to conflicting national rules and bad practices.
Topic:
Corruption, Reform, European Union, Rule of Law, and Judiciary
Political Geography:
Europe, Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia

1965. Maintaining momentum in enlargement

Author:
Erwan Fouéré
Publication Date:
04-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
If it wants to convince reluctant member states of the continued benefits of enlargement, the EU needs to offer greater clarity and ensure candidate countries fulfil their commitments. The European Commission presented its latest communication on the EU’s enlargement policy on 17 April, together with the country reports assessing each candidate country’s record in the reforms required for EU accession. Three broad messages emerge.
Topic:
European Union, Regional Integration, European Commission, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, Balkans, Macedonia, and Albania

1966. The EU Twinning Instrument in Ukraine

Author:
Dmytro Panchuk and Fabienne Bossuyt
Publication Date:
04-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
With the aid of a SWOT analysis (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats), this paper evaluates the implementation of the EU’s Twinning instrument in Ukraine since 2007.The authors draw upon 50 interviews they conducted with Twinning stakeholders from the EU, EU member states, Ukraine and other EaP countries. They argue that the Twinning instrument in Ukraine, while offering distinct strengths and opportunities, has punched below its weight due to systemic weaknesses in its internal set-up and a number of threats emanating from the domestic situation in Ukraine and the EU itself. The authors offer policy recommendations aimed at improving the effectiveness of the instrument in Ukraine and the greater EaP region through enhanced flexibility, more targeted interventions, stronger individual and sectoral incentives and greater visibility. They also review the European Commission’s new Twinning guidelines, which came into effect in July 2017, and reflect on how they address the issues raised in the analysis.
Topic:
Politics, European Union, Regional Integration, European Commission, and Threat Perception
Political Geography:
Europe, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

1967. The Dilemma of the EU’s Future Trade Relations with Western Sahara

Author:
Guillaume Van der Loo
Publication Date:
04-2018
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
Following the Court of Justice’s rulings on the Front Polisario, the EU is facing thorny legal and political challenges to include Western Sahara in its trade agreements with Morocco. On 27 February 2018, the Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU) delivered a new judgement in Case C-266/16 Western Sahara Campaign UK concerning the territorial application of an EU-Morocco agreement to Western Sahara, giving rise once again to diplomatic tensions between the EU and Rabat. The Court concluded that neither the Fisheries Agreement (2006) nor the associated Protocol (2013) are applicable to the waters adjacent to the territory of Western Sahara. The Court closely followed the analysis it had made in C-104/16 Council v. Front Polisario, in which it held that the EU-Morocco Association Agreement (AA) and the 2012 agreement liberalising (processed) agricultural and fishery products (the “Liberalisation Agreement”) do not apply to Western Sahara. Whereas the Court clarifies the role of international law in the EU’s external policies in these fascinating cases, it leaves the European Commission in a very difficult situation, both legally and politically, to deal with the policy-consequences of these judgments. Western Sahara is recognised as a non-self-governing territory in accordance with Article 73 of the UN Charter, and the right to self-determination for such territories, Western Sahara in particular, has been stressed several times by different UN Resolutions and the International Court of Justice (e.g. its Advisory Opinion of 1975 on Western Sahara). The largest part of Western Sahara is still controlled by Morocco, which considers this territory to be an integral part of its sovereign territory, while the Front Polisario (the liberalisation movement seeking independence of Western Sahara) controls the remainder. Although the EU and its member states have never recognised Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara, the EU has de facto been applying the EU-Morocco Liberalisation Agreement and Fisheries Agreement to (the waters adjacent to) Western Sahara, as confirmed by both the Council and the Commission.
Topic:
International Relations, International Law, European Union, Trade, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, and Western Sahara

1968. Incomplete Hegemonies, Hybrid Neighbours: Identity games and policy tools in Eastern Partnership countries

Author:
Andrey Makarychev
Publication Date:
02-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
This paper applies the concepts of hegemony and hybridity as analytical tools to help understand the structural changes taking place within the Eastern Partnership (EaP) countries and beyond. The author points to the split identities of many post-Soviet societies and the growing appeal of solutions aimed at balancing Russia’s or the EU’s dominance as important factors shaping EaP dynamics. Against this background, he explores how the post-Soviet borderlands can find their place in a still hypothetical pan-European space, and free themselves from the tensions of their competing hegemons. The EaP is divided into those countries that signed Association Agreements with the EU and those preferring to maintain their loyalty to Eurasian integration. Bringing the two groups closer together, however, is not beyond policy imagination. The policy-oriented part of this analysis focuses on a set of ideas and schemes aimed at enhancing interaction and blurring divisions between these countries. The author proposes five scenarios that might shape the future of EaP countries’ relations with the EU and with Russia: 1) the conflictual status quo in which both hegemonic powers will seek to weaken the position of the other; 2) trilateralism (EU, Russia plus an EaP country), which has been tried and failed, but still is considered as a possible option by some policy analysts; 3) the Kazakhstan-Armenia model of diplomatic advancement towards the EU, with some potential leverage on Russia; 4) deeper engagement by the EU with the Eurasian Economic Union, which has some competences for tariffs and technical standards; and 5) the decoupling of security policies from economic projects, which is so far the most difficult option to foresee and implement in practice.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Economics, European Union, Partnerships, Identity, and Post-Soviet Space
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Eastern Europe

1969. The Strategic Potential of the Emerging Wider European Economic Area

Author:
Michael Emerson
Publication Date:
02-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
Critical, independent evaluations of the current European Neighbourhood Policy have not been dissipated by a recent review of the policy. At the same time, however a new reality has emerged, which the author of this paper suggests might be called the Wider European Economic Area (WEEA). This area covers the EU, EEA/EFTA states, the Balkans, and the East European states that now have Association Agreements (and DCFTAs) with the EU. This comprehensive map of all of Europe, with the exception of the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union, already has a growing and impressive array of common economic instruments at its disposal. A few South Mediterranean states also participate in certain areas. This CEPS Policy Insights paper argues that this seemingly endogenous process deserves to be advanced more explicitly by the EU in a WEEA initiative, which could be launched by a ‘green paper’ from the EU institutions and supported by soft institutionalisation with a policy forum. Further possible extensions of the process are also discussed, notably the conditions under which there might be cooperation with the Eurasian Economic Union, and linkages to the Chinese-sponsored new Silk Road. A WEEA initiative could well complement current thinking about giving renewed impetus to the EU’s own integration, including ideas under the broad heading of a multi-speed Europe.
Topic:
Treaties and Agreements, European Union, Economic Policy, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Europe, Eastern Europe, and Balkans

1970. A decisive year for the EU’s re-engagement with the Western Balkans

Author:
Erwan Fouéré
Publication Date:
01-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
After years of taking the Western Balkan region for granted, the EU has woken up to the dramatic deterioration of democratic standards in its nearest neighbourhood. Author Erwan Fouéré argues that the EU now has a chance to reassert its leadership in the debate about the future of the Western Balkans and should seize it to renew its commitment to the region. He offers a number of policy recommendations in this regard: The European Commission’s forthcoming Enlargement Strategy Paper should: i) set out a vision for the long term to transform the countries of the region into functioning democracies, with accountable governments and viable economies. ii) address the root causes of the deep malaise facing the Western Balkans, in particular the ‘state capture’, and prioritise the principles of rule of law and fundamental rights that lie at the heart of the accession process; iii) put forward meaningful initiatives for the benefit of society at large, such as in the areas of – integrated education in multi-ethnic societies; – reconciliation programmes and local efforts towards transitional justice, including the financing of international investigative experts; iv) set out a clear commitment to a more consistent and direct support for civil society at all levels and at all times. It should also promote more direct and public support for independent media, including more financial support for targeted projects; v) assume a proactive role in bilateral disputes by promoting targeted cooperation with both the OSCE and the Council of Europe; vi) support civil society’s role in resolving bilateral disputes, particularly in cross-border areas; vii) propose a substantial increase in pre-accession funding to the region, including a possible merging of funds with the International Financial Institutions, and open access to EU structural funds. Also, the Communication on Enlargement (April 2018) should include recommendations for the opening of accession negotiations with both Macedonia and Albania, assuming the reform programmes in both countries proceed as planned. It should also recommend the opening of a screening process in chapters 23 and 24 of the accession process with all the remaining countries. The EU-Western Balkan Summit in Sofia (May 2018) should confirm the renewed momentum for the EU’s commitment to the region, and should become the first of yearly summits.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Civil Society, Diplomacy, European Union, European Commission, and Strategic Engagement
Political Geography:
Europe and Balkans