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1742. Mounting tensions in France-Italy relations: Troubled waters between European partners
- Author:
- Marco Siddi
- Publication Date:
- 03-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
- Abstract:
- Since its formation in mid-2018, the new Italian government has engaged in a series of arguments with France, most recently over the controversial actions of an Italian minister. However, these tensions have deeper roots that can be traced to different views on Libya and migration.
- Topic:
- Migration, Regional Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, and European Union
- Political Geography:
- Europe, France, Libya, and Italy
1743. The Concepts of parliamentarism in the EU's political system: Approaching the choice between two models
- Author:
- Teija Tilikainen
- Publication Date:
- 04-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
- Abstract:
- EU-level parliamentarism is at a crossroads. The hybrid form of parliamentarism, combining elements of parliamentarism as control of the executive and parliamentarism as a separation of powers, has rendered the public image of the European Parliament obscure, and decreased the democratic legitimacy of the EU’s political system. Even the contradictory elements of the two main models of parliamentarism have been incorporated into the Union’s political governance. Lack of clarity concerning the contours of parliamentarism tends to support an underestimation of the role it plays at the EU level. The path towards the revision of the Union’s democratic governance along the lines of the separation of powers system is currently shorter than the one provided by parliamentarism as control of the executive.
- Topic:
- European Union, Democracy, Legitimacy, and European Parliament
- Political Geography:
- Europe
1744. The 2019 European elections: New political constellations
- Author:
- Tuomas Iso-Markku and Marco Siddi
- Publication Date:
- 05-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
- Abstract:
- Three main factors will determine the shape of the next European Parliament (EP): the outcome of the elections, the organisation of national parties into supranational political groups, and developments in the Brexit process. Everything points towards some significant changes – and a considerable degree of uncertainty – in the new EP. The EP’s centre-right and centre-left groups are expected to lose their combined majority for the first time since 1979, whereas far-right parties and liberal democrats will likely increase their representation. The EP’s mainstream groups will therefore need new allies to achieve majorities, which could boost the influence of the smaller groups. The choice of the next Commission President will be the first major test for the new EP. While most political groups have designated candidates, it is unclear whether the Spitzenkandidaten system will be followed. If and when it takes place, Brexit will have an impact on the size of the EP, reducing it from 751 to 705 seats, as well as on the composition of the political groups that include British parliamentarians.
- Topic:
- Regional Cooperation, European Union, Brexit, and European Parliament
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Europe
1745. Towards an EU security community? Public opinion and the EU’s role as a security actor
- Author:
- Matti Pesu and Tuomas Iso-Markku
- Publication Date:
- 06-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
- Abstract:
- The EU’s ability to contribute to the security of its citizens forms a key part of a new emerging narrative for the Union. Finland is one of the advocates of increased EU activity in security and defence, frequently referring to the EU as a security community. Existing data on public opinion suggest that citizens’ views provide building blocks for more potent EU action in security and defence matters and support for the idea of the EU security community. EU citizens broadly share concerns related to terrorism and migration. The fear of armed conflict is low, however. In general, EU citizens are disposed towards collective action by the EU in questions of foreign, security and defence policy. Support for the CFSP and CSDP has remained high and strikingly stable. Moreover, there seems to be a nascent sense of solidarity and unity among Europeans, which may facilitate the EU’s agency in these areas. However, the EU should survey public attitudes on security-related questions in a more detailed fashion in order to gain a better grasp of the prevailing sentiments among EU citizens.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Regional Cooperation, Military Strategy, and European Union
- Political Geography:
- Europe
1746. Finland’s 2019 presidency of the Council of the European Union: European and domestic determinants
- Author:
- Tuomas Iso-Markku and Juha Jokela
- Publication Date:
- 08-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
- Abstract:
- The Finnish presidency of the Council of the EU faces a sensitive political climate, marked by divisions between the member states. However, some of the EU’s recent crises have also given the Union a renewed sense of purpose: striking the right balance between ambition and realism will therefore be a key challenge for Finland. During its presidency, Finland will have little legislative work, but can help in setting the EU’s priorities for the next five years, advancing the negotiations on the Multiannual Financial Framework and managing the Brexit process. The rise of the Eurosceptic Finns Party in the late 2000s had a crucial impact on Finland’s EU policy. This was reflected in harder and, at times, obstructive positions on EU issues. However, recently a new consensus on EU affairs seems to have emerged among the other parties. Antti Rinne’s new government is striving for a stronger EU with a presidency programme that resonates with the strategic agenda of the European Council, but also corresponds with the more limited role of post-Lisbon Treaty presidencies.
- Topic:
- Regional Cooperation, European Union, Finance, and Brexit
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Finland
1747. Poland’s 2019 election: Bright prospects for the populist Right
- Author:
- Marco Siddi and Barbara Gaweda
- Publication Date:
- 10-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
- Abstract:
- Poland’s incumbent party Law and Justice seems poised to win the election thanks to its welfare policies and the weakness of the opposition. However, its attacks on the independence of the judiciary and the media could further erode the rule of law and exacerbate disputes with the EU.
- Topic:
- Authoritarianism, Elections, European Union, Populism, Conservatism, and Rule of Law
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Poland
1748. Redefining the EU-China economic partnership: beyond reciprocity lies strategy
- Author:
- Tobias Gehrke
- Publication Date:
- 02-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
- Abstract:
- The EU-China economic relationship is transitioning to a new era. Years of soaring Chinese investments in Europe are increasingly met with unease by EU leaders. Beijing’s influence on the activities of its global economic actors have resulted in economic security concerns about critical infrastructure and national security on the continent. A hectic debate about security risks of Chinese technology companies and a new EU regulation on a common investment screening regime are evidence of an ongoing policy response to perceived growing risks from economic interdependence. Europe is right to acknowledge these risks. But Europe is also divided. Lacking common priorities for action makes individual policies vulnerable and insufficient. A new EU strategy on China must start at home. Of course, Member States’ political expediency is the Union’s eternal handicap. This policy brief offers three lines of action in which policy reform can support Europe’s resilience and reinforce the foundation of an EU strategy on China
- Topic:
- International Cooperation, European Union, Investment, Economic Cooperation, and Transition
- Political Geography:
- China, Europe, and Asia
1749. European Strategic Autonomy: Which Military Level of Ambition?
- Author:
- Jo Coelmont
- Publication Date:
- 03-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
- Abstract:
- The EU Global Strategy is crystal clear on the EU’s political level of ambition yet remarkably silent on the corresponding military level of ambition. But strategy without capabilities is just a hallucination. Recent developments in the EU make it possible, however, for the Member States to agree on an appropriate and affordable military level of ambition. The aim: to conduct autonomous crisis management operations and to contribute substantially to territorial defence within the NATO framework. We should not forget that the European countries have the primary responsibility for the territorial defence of their own continent.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Regional Cooperation, Military Strategy, and European Union
- Political Geography:
- Europe
1750. Europe in a multipolar missile world – Why the EU and NATO should not try to salvage the INF Treaty
- Author:
- Bruno Hellendorff
- Publication Date:
- 04-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
- Abstract:
- On 1 February 2019, the US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo announced that his country had suspended its compliance with the Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces Treaty, or INF Treaty, and would withdraw from it within six months. The INF Treaty, little known outside of arms control and disarmament circles, was a landmark Cold War agreement between the United States of America and the USSR – the first to ban an entire category of weapons (ground-based medium- and intermediate-range missiles). The US withdrawal, announced in dramatic terms by President Donald Trump in October 2018, followed the claim that Russia had recently developed and fielded a missile with performances forbidden by the INF Treaty. The end of this little-known treaty is not anecdotal. Not only will it further strain the US-Russia relationship and antagonise allies, it will also contribute to the erosion of what is left of the global arms-control architecture and incentivise arms-race behav- iours among great powers. In a world where security is increasingly less a question of multilateral deliberation and rules-based interactions, the end of the INF Treaty is a further signal that missile technologies are again becoming a venue for competition between great powers: only this time, at least three are playing the game (United States, China and Russia) rather than two (United States and USSR). Additionally, missile technology proliferation has turned into a major dimension of contemporary battlefield realities, and missile programmes of countries such as Iran and North Korea continue to pose important diplomatic and non-proliferation challenges. Meanwhile, Europe is, by and large, left watching as its regional security architecture erodes. Welcome to what US National Security Advisor John Bolton recently termed ‘a multipolar missile world’. The EU should not try to salvage the INF Treaty. Its diplomatic capital might be better spent in areas where it could potentially make a difference, rather than in a treaty to which it is not even party. Existing multilateral regimes and agreements with the EU or its Member States as parties are already in dire need of reinforcement in the face of technological progress, a volatile diplomatic environment and self-centred, competitive political narratives. These include, inter alia, the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) framework (including its Structured Dialogue), multilateral export control regimes (MECR) like the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR), transparency and trust-building mechanisms like the Hague Code of Conduct against missile proliferation (HCoC), and nuclear-related frame- works like the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA or ‘Iran deal’) or the Non- Proliferation Treaty (NPT) Review Process. These, however, may simply fail to meet the challenge of a multipolar missile world. Renewed efforts, both conceptual and in the realm of capabilities, are needed in a NATO framework to reinforce the linkage between deterrence and diplomacy. NATO-EU dialogue and cooperation on defence issues could be further enhanced, and European countries should work more with like-minded partners at both bilat- eral or multilateral levels on the challenges of non-proliferation and disarmament in the twenty-first century. The demise of the INF Treaty should therefore re-energise the debate on European strategic autonomy, help support collective capability building – not least in NATO – and prompt new discussions on stronger multilateral rules on missile development, use and proliferation.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Treaties and Agreements, Military Strategy, and European Union
- Political Geography:
- Europe, North Atlantic, and North America